Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Blimey. What have I missed today.
The Prince of Darkness turns negative and everyone else turns on each other!
Surely we must, collectively, be beyond that sort of thing now?
It clear where the company is and what is going to happen over the next 3 months. So why have a pop at each other anymore?
Does anyone have any actual worthwhile info/opinion?
Intrepid

Hi CAR3Y.
Well done for your luck. Just bear in mind that’s not investing; it’s gambling. And it contributes nothing to the debate but helps to confuse the less experienced (into overpaying for their shares). Just so you can buy a reasonable case of wine.
And it’s as likely you lose next time.
Enjoy but maybe think on
Intrepid.

Hi dvharrison,
before you go, do you mind telling me why you have sold out at 90p, seemingly having followed FAB since its IPO (if I read your post correct). what was the deciding factor?
hope you can respond as I'm keen to know your thoughts.
kind regards
intrepid.

Hi all.
It seems the old trading range of 120p to 220p is now 350p to 500p.
Until the next RNS, that is.
I wouldn't short these as too risky (seadec - did you close yours from Tuesday night yesterday morning ?),
but i'd sure as hell trade in and out in the above range, if trading was my game - i tend not to trade anymore and certainly don't 'day-trade' (aka gamble) as the odds are against us; spreads and news delay being what they are. it's difficult enough to make money as a MM, let along being on the other side. My game of choice for gambling is Blackjack - best odds in the house for those who know them.
anyway, here's to the next RNS. Lets hope its not one saying 'we can't meet orders for XYZ reasons' but more 'we are fulfilling orders at [4m/8m/put your figure in here] and expect order to continue into 2021.
anything of that ilk will do.
Intrepid

Likely to be IDB trades carried out between MMs as they all scramble to sort their position, or internal trades of one bank, where the sales traders are able to dig out sellers to help a MM who is short (or visa versa). This stock cam and will go both ways until revenues confirmed.
Intrepid.

Hi all.
As an ex MM, I know that an RNS issued at 4:15pm in a rollercoaster stock like this is really stressful for the MM (unless your Chinese walls are leaking- which happens all the time). They will be desperate to put some figures on the SP and will rely on their analysts to come up with a target SP PDQ. Then, they need to either sit back and not answer the phones (if they think their book is the right way) or hit the phones or IDBs to change their position if they think they are the wrong way.
Then they have to wait and see.
However, I think that RNS may drag out some sellers as it did not confirm sales figures, just manufacturing capacity. Some with think that ‘odd’. But then again, as so many of you have posted, that capacity is key, (positive) so long as they can get their hands on raw material (negative). Orders are a given (positive), cost of raw materials will escalate (negative)
In other words I suspect MMs will find some chunky sellers, holding from much lower levels to counteract the frenzy of new buyers.
Ergo, don’t be surprised if these don’t fly too high tomorrow. They will get there once revenues are stated but could be really volatile until then.
Intrepid.

Will be going to Daphne’s and the cliff in my next visit to Holetown.

Ain’t that the truth Girdz!
Notice I have changed from ‘hold’ to weak buy.
Reason is that I feel a change of sentiment in the markets - which means BIDS more likely to raise their funding when needed.
We are all guessing about revenues and I stand firm on that: I still don’t think there is anything material coming in - otherwise we’d have been told. But I reckon everyone is working hard to persuade advertisers to spend some money and that hard work will eventually pay off.
My guess is that it will be a very close run as to whether funds are needed before an RNS can be issued with actual figures of revenues - as opposed to the smoke n mirrors ones of late.
The difference will be raising cash at 6p or at 20p.
Let’s wish them luck. I might even put in some of my pharma stock profits into BIDS. Couldn’t quite bring myself to put any of our new ISA allowances into it.
Intrepid.

Hi morning?
That’s known as a ‘back’. It happens when the MMs are figuring out the price during volatile periods. Usually only lasts for a very short period as arbitrageurs will immediately trade both sides of the backed bid/offer until they return to normal. And only registered traders with instant and direct market access will be quick enough in a back situation. Private investors trading thru the likes of Barclays - forget it.
Intrepid.

Hi Fred16.
An old stock market trader’s saying is”it’s never wrong to take a profit”.
Intrepid.

Hi all,
My first post on SFOR.
I've been buying for over a year and will keep adding over the years.
That is because I've been a follower of Martin Sorrel from the start, when he reversed into WPP (Wire & Plastic Products - making shopping baskets for supermarkets at the time).
The guy is a finance director (money/numbers man) who gets business and, specifically the world of advertising. He will make money for us over time.
I predict that in 10 years time, this stock will be 10 times the price - so long as Sorrell doesn't die or leave in the meantime.
So, assuming he manages to avoid SARS-CoV-2 and therefore CoVid-19, we should all see annual returns of 25%-30% pa over time.
Not least because he has set up SFOR to focus on the segment of advertising that is the future, but also because of his track record - he knows what companies to buy, at what price and in what structure to ensure the people in the target companies stay in the game with SFOR.
So I was doubly pleased to pick up some at 106p and 124p and 140p last month.
Anyone else have any longer term views?
intrepid.

Hi TallPaulNY
the spikes will occur at 13:30hr GMT (UTC to some). it's US led (which, given your chosen pseudo, you must know - couldn't resist a rhyme).
Intrepid

I now hold 5672 shares at (technically) zero pence, as have locked in £14k profit and also cashed back out my initial £12500 investment.
Bought at 36p, 91p, 115p and 154p. Sold at 144p and 190p.
Will hold remaining.
Intrepid.

T’was not Teas.

Hi Nickrush?
If by ‘diamonds’ you are referring to ‘Petra Diamonds’; my view is avoid; it has all the hallmarks of a falling knife. Look at Lonmin for a very similar stock with very similar fundamentals (debt, falling relevant commodity price, falling customer numbers, competition from alteratives, difficulty in operations). ‘Teas not pretty and is one of my own ‘falling knives’.
Intrepid.

Hi Mark1973.
There were plenty in the dotcom boom. But hardly any of the massive baggers survived the reality of the fundamentals catching up with investors (gamblers?) votes.
As Buffet said; the stock market is a voting machine in the short term (investors sentiments) and a weighing machine in the long term (fundamentals).
For an insight into how this can work in practice, read Guy Thomas’ ‘Free Capital’; an interesting analysis of a dozen uber-successful private investors and how they became the first people to obtain £1m + ISAs - which, at the time of writing required annualised returns way higher than Buffet, for example.
Enjoy the reading and putting some of it into practice.
Intrepid.

Hi JonesRichard
Watch ‘The Big Short’ and read ‘The hour between Dog and Wolf’.
The former will help you understand the power of contrarian investing (which is really a process of timing) and the latter will give you an insight into what drives markets, emotionally/mentally (particularly dealing room floors).
Understand these and allow them to guide you and you will, over time, choose winners (and stay with them) and avoid losers, but regrettably you will likely still catch the odd falling knife, which is the contrarian’s Achilles heel.
Intrepid.

Hi Wilson63
You are both welcome and pleasantly surprising.
You never know, I might throw some of these profits back into BIDS. Most will go into SFOR though.
Intrepid.

Hi VanV.
I guess we sort of agree.
I think NCYT is now ‘proven’ and therefore ‘in play’.
But it is a one trick pony, albeit, one trick mammoth with covid, but still pony-sized with SARS and MERS (thankfully as MERS far more deadly).
The question is therefore still the same; what is the goodwill element of the marcap from here on out.
I think I’m just being realistic with my guess, based on my view that pandemics don’t ‘take hold’ like this very often. Last time was 1918. Next time?? Somewhere between a year and a 100 years but could be shorter. We’ve effectively had ubiquitous global travel on a massive scale for the last 40+ years and only this one pandemic big enough to scare 45% of the world into lockdown.
Why should the next 40 years be any different?
Hence why I’m thinking £1b max bid/goodwill for NCYT and not Acuere’s £4b.
I’d love to be wrong as what I’ve not yet sold I am now holding for long term. Now part of the ‘hold’ section of my portfolio, not the trade/punt section.
Intrepid.

So for me, it’s all in an ISA so no preference.
But if not the case, I’d take the CGs and sell prior to ex-div.
intrepid.