Member Info for IntrepidInvestor

Hi Count.
Am I to believe my eyes? Have you finally found some ‘balance’ to your BIDS viewpoint?
As I re-read your last post, it comes across as, well, a bit negative towards BIDS SP.
Is that a correct interpretation?
All the best
Intrepid.

Hi Fudgerella.
Methinks Draper wishes he’d now gone via the private equity route rather than this AIM vehicle. That would have avoided all of this current malaise.
Perhaps our most likely next RNS is that he’s struck a deal with a PE investor to buy us all out at 20p.
As a hypothetical scenario, whom amongst us would vote ‘yes’ for that? Would be very interesting to hear.
I would be a ‘no’ because I think longer term, there is real potential here, and 20p might be far too cheap - just need to get past these short term issues (no revs/cash burn).

Hi Wilson63
Do you have a link to that I could hop onto? I've just tried cutting and pasting but it didn't like it.
I'd be really interested to see those adverts for myself.

Hi oliver90.
One's 'average price' ticks up when one locks in losses and ticks down when one locks in profits. My average after the placing was 12p and dropped after I started selling the bulk at a profit.
simple calculation is the initial investment minus the running P&L, divided by the number of shares still being held. Sorry if this is a 'sucking eggs' comment.

gridz
I could have easily goggled it and you’d never have known that I could t recall what PMP stood for.
But that’s a form of lying which I am not prepared to do. I decided a long time ago that full inward honesty was the only policy. The only time I ever hold back on the truth is when others feelings/mental state of mind are involved. Even then, that’s not guaranteed.
I believe lots of readers on this board had the same question in mind and either googled it or benefitted from my asking the question.
But glad you enjoyed the moment. I’m sure there will be plenty more.

For what it’s worth, I think we all like a bit of risk (BIDS shareholders) - otherwise, what are we doing here? I think the trick is to be comfortable with losing all the money invested. If you ever find yourself thinking you have to much exposure, you have. If the thought of losing the lot worries you, then reduce.
A smaller win is far better than sleepless nights.
Less risky than BIDS but in the same sector, and receiving a decent amount of my activity is SFOR. Sorry if I’m breaking any rules mentioning another share but I suspect it‘S profile fits well with BIDS fans.

Thanks for constructive response Wilson63.
If you look at my previous posts you’ll see I significantly reduced my holding at c 19p when the directors sale announcement came out. I also questioned why there was no obvious love tailored adverts in GRID in Sept/Oct and sold some at 24p.
I bought back some of the sold stock at 12p ahead of the disaster RNS, ( assuming any revs announcement was then priced in) buts sold that at 11p following the deal RNS. I’ve got 250,000 left and am in for ave 2p, taking into account trading P&L. That’s a total exposure of £5k.
I can happily live with that going pop. It’s not even one family skiing holiday.
But I appreciate that many people on this board are not in quite the same situation and their loses here are troubling them.
I therefore feel obliged to put forward my honest unfettered thoughts on this stock.
It’s risk factor went up exponentially on 18DEC so I’m not willing to hold more cash in this stock. My gut says it’s just a trading stock for now, but I know trading stocks with 10%-15% MM spreads is a mugs game. Some win, but most lose. The MMs always win in the end with spreads like that.

Hi MXANYRANDOMCONSONANT (is that an Irish thing?)
;-).
What does PMP stand for? ‘Cuse my ignorance/aging retention skills.
My point is still valid. How come they conveniently land that spend and then can’t repeat it again? That simply beggars belief.
What sort of sales team cannot repeat a genuine sale again, even once, in over 12 months.
It does not stack up. No-one is saying anything to convince me that that £300k was not somehow contrived. Worst still, it could have been 100% genuine natural revenue - but then why not get either it repeated or others copying? That can only suggest the organisation that paid the £300k did not like the results. I’ve no idea how they measured ‘results’ but I guess it’s about surveying game users to see how many noticed their advert. After all, I can’t see how they have click-thru rates for in game adverts? How would that work? The gamer pauses play to click on the advert? I can’t see that ever happening. So surely it’s about awareness of the brand within the game. Anyone got any ideas on that?

Either way, this Makes no sense right now. Just like their stock dump at 20p didnt make sense - until we saw the bigger picture.
Every ounce of business acumen I have is telling me there is no good reason for that £300k revs timing and lack of repeat.

I believe He lied in the AGM of 2019 when asked about that £300k.
I ask one simple question; if that initial reported £300k was genuine unfettered revenue over a 6 week period from one game (as stated in the AGM), why are they not still seeing that sort of revs over one year on?
It stinks as much as their decision to sell as many shares as they could, only 3 days after GRID went live.
These are valid points which I will make at the next AGM. I suggest you all come along to it.
BTW, they have until 30JUN20 to report the 2019 results. Anyone want to guess when these will be out?

Hi Mniy.
If only that were true. BIDS raised c £3.5m in Sept 2018 that cannot show on the H1 2018 balance sheet you refer to (as it had not happened).
Furthermore, they raised another £5.5m in APR19. So they have clearly spent £3m between SEP18 and 30JUN19.
That was with a much smaller team but some of that cash (£500k?) would have been placing fees.
Still, they spent best part of £3m with a much smaller team between 09SEP18 and 30JUN19.
Hence why I am certain of their burn rate now being above £500k per month. Probs significantly higher.
Also, no-one has yet to comment on my assertion that the £300k reported as part of the 2018 y/e revs was bogus. It was spwcifically NOT referred to as ‘test’ revs and was the sole reason I bought another half mil of these things during the next placing. JD manipulated the SP then to get the £5.5m in April.
I expect him to do the same this time (once bitten etc etc).
#justsaying. #3liesinoneyear??

.......latter.

Hi Jimmy_Stocks.
Thanks for the response. You make a number of strong points, many of which I have mulled over myself, previously.
I guess my ‘certainty’ is borne out of experience. When a new company fails to meet early revenue targets, money quickly starts evaporating. Of course, none of us know the current ‘burn-through rate’ of BIDS cash, but we can put good estimates to know figures - 3 offices/50 staff etc. Using those, I’ve estimated they will run out of cash by April if no real revenue is actually received soon (not merely invoiced but received). I guess they may be able to factorise their invoices if they do issue some, but I suspect it will be pretty costly %-wise, given their high risk early stage status.

Cash could be rolling in now, but I don’t see or hear about lots of tailored adverts being cited. Ones I have seen, have had a negative effect on me; I can’t make out the brands within the videos/gaming environment so I’ve assumed others can’t. Surely marketing directors will also be aware of that and tread carefully? My marketing expertise is above average but still limited so I could be missing the point. However, if it’s nigh-on impossible to make out most of the adverts, how can anyone expect advertisers to either start or continue with their advertising. I have therefore concluded that no-one is placing adverts for this reason - that it’s not money well spent.
Re JD announcements: I’ve said it before. I also think we were lied to re the £300k revs in 2018. They must have been contrived somehow. Otherwise, why did they stop or not re-start? Therefore I struggle with his comments.
However, Giving JD some benefit of doubt, I think he has realised that he needed to be quiet about successes during this ‘land grab’. I suspect competitors have probably surprised BIDS in some way - eg by stealing that plan A contract from under BIDS noses perhaps. I gather there is an unquoted Israeli outfit that is on the march. They will have the luxury of not having to announce anything publicly. Who knows how they are getting on. My guess is better than BIDS expected. Hence now the silence. Let’s hope that it’s not ‘to little to late’.
You are right that JD will be v keen to somehow push the shares higher for placing purposes - you suggest valid ways how that might happen. But I can’t see how BIDS can remain the necessary ‘Radio silence’ and simultaneously push the price up. Unless that rogue employee I mentioned earlier leaks good news of buoyant revs to a friendly broker.
So I conclude the SP will drift unless some announcement of substance. If it starts rolling upwards or downwards for a sustained period, that will suggest someone knows something.
Meanwhile they are burning through cash.
I can’t predict what will happen to the SP over the coming months. It could go back down to 6p again or shoot back up to the 20s. All depends on whether the revenue is rolling in or not.
I live in hope for the former but hold expecting the

Hi Roley.
I like to think of myself as a ‘seen-it’ cynic, where the stock markets are concerned. Otherwise very much the optimist. Even now, where BIDS is concerned, I hold on to 1/4 of my original holding because of said optimistic nature.
But to keep my demons at bay, I learnt a long time ago to be prepared to lose the lot. As I’m almost in for free, I am relaxed about whether the BOD deliver or not. I feel for anyone who is not in that position, though (even Count D).
I might even buy some more in the placing, assuming the price is attractive enough (sub 8p). There will be a placing, that I am certain of now. Cash flows from this new ‘zero hours’ contract (if it’s real) are hardly likely to appear straight away. I am led to believe most larger agencies pay on 90 day terms (if you are lucky). Anyone an Advertising expert that can comment on that? Happy to be wrong.

Exorcise. Not excise. After all, they don’t yet tax ‘being abusive’ do they.

this BB can always count on you Count. Do you get a great deal of relief from using the abusive tones? Or does it regress you back into the comfort zone of your childhood (which would have to have been an abusive one, according to the likes of Kant & Co).
Shame. I can recommend someone if you ever want to try to excise those demons.

Just peeked at that job advert. Seems whoever takes it, won’t last long; particularly if they actually do have the ‘personal integrity’ the advert calls for.
Looking on the bright side, JD can at least say with a certain level of honesty that BIDS has at least one ‘live’ advert now.
I might even apply myself; if I get the job I’ll report back to you lot what’s really going on.
Oh, I’m forgetting; given the constant share price slide before the founders selling and before revenues warnings, it seems someone has already beaten me to it.

S/b ‘demand-led’

........... it clearly was not Damon’s-led. Otherwise, where is it now.
I have to therefore conclude that £300k 2018 rev was contrived - and purely to pump up the chances of raising money in the APR19 placement.
I can contest to the fact that this highly questionable approach to PLC governance worked in my case. I doubled my holding of the time, by taking part in the placing, mainly on the back of the disclosed ‘fact’ that BIDS generated £300k in 6 weeks from one game.
That claim by the BOD of BIDS was a lie. They have not been truthful or transparent about that initial revenue and therefore I now can’t trust what they say.
Instead, I will react to what actually happens to revenues in future RNSs.
I strongly suggest others do the same.
It means being behind the curve, but at least you are trading on the facts.

Dear C(o)unt.
Please can you stop insulting people on here. You quickly insult everyone who posts views opposite to yours. To you, they are all “Dic Ed’s” etc and are just de-ramping.
you are not allowed to be Challenged or called a ramper.
Why the aggression? It’s unnecessary and ultimately destroys the effectiveness of BBs.
Please at least attempt to be civil in the debate. I put in the ( ) in your name to demonstrate my point........ that it is so easy to turn on the aggression, but it helps not one jot.
‘Nuff said.
Re this stock: IMHO, next Q has to be about revenues. The ‘zero hours’ contract announced on 19DEC19 may or may not deliver £. Chances are it will average somewhere in the middle of its’ ‘framework’ fig of £10m. That’s £5m over 12 months. So £400k pcm. That is total revenue, of which BIDS will ultimately hold onto c 25% (if lucky). So their likely real revenues will be £100k pcm from that one deal. It will be £200k pcm if the £10m is achieved.
Either way, this is a long way off their current ‘cash burn through’ rate. Ergo, they will most likely need to raise cash in Q1 - I’ve argued this point before but the count and others keep pumping out the rampage despite clear and obvious evidence to the contrary. 50 staff need paying for.
The SP currently below the placing price of APR19. That is the most telling fact here. It’s obvious to me that inside news leaks from BIDS constantly and that the SP quickly adopts that unpublished news.
If you don’t believe me, check out the SP before all major announcements in 2019. The SP collapsed to 23p as the founders were attempting to sell 4m shares at 22.5p via broker placing They then reduced the placing price to 20p and the SP dropped to 20.5p. The placing failed and they had to offload as many shares as they could into the market. Sold 3m at 20p. SP fully reflected the placing manuveours at all points.
SP kept sinking towards 2019 year end. Because it was known that there were no revenues. SP nearly hit level of initial reverse takeover.
SP only now above that level because of the ‘zero hours’ contract announcement.
BIDS must boost the SP to stand any chance of raising ‘cheap’ cash at next fund-raising level. So hopefully further contract announcements to come?
My advice, however, is to treat RNSs with pinch of salt. A ‘zero hours’ contract with an unnamed partner is easy to fabricate or gloss over. It could easily be ‘created’ to push the SP up ahead of fundraising and can then easily be glossed over when no revenues appear by simply stating that the revs never materialised. #justsaying.

Finally, please don’t ignore the most important thing; fiunders both stated in the AGM that the £300k revs from 2018 were generated “in just 6 weeks from one game”. Where has that revenue disappeared to? Some have suggested it was just ‘test’ Rev, but I was in the AGM. no mention of ‘test revs’ was made. Quite the opposite was inferred; that that Rev was genuine demand-led £.

The ‘missed M&A’ quote is telling, IMHO. It shows a lack of experience from the two directors, which is understandable, as they have only been directors on AIM for 5 minutes.
However, it raises a massive question; was it a merger or and acquisition? I hope it was the latter; and I hope the intended target is still available at some point in the future, if still needed.
But I am concerned it was a merger. What if BIDs was in discussions with a company willing to buy them (S4G?)? Would the directors be foolish enough to sell shares ahead of that? I hope not.
Let’s assume they are not that incompetent - we have to then assume it was not a ‘merger/BIDS as takeover target’ which leaves us with the conclusion BIDS wanted to but something and the share price collapsed? Which still leaves the directors as either a) incredibly stupid in selling shares in a manner that scuppers a deal or b) incredibly selfish in selling shares to lock in their own gains, regardless of the fact such selling would scupper the said acquisition. Either way JD & Fran look bad.
But that is all history now..............,, or is it?

I think we can all agree that the current 2 differing opinions on things centre around one factor: Will BIDS need more cash. In the Blue corner we have Countie and Co, who suggest enough money is now rolling in that reserves will last until cash flow positive, so no placing. In the Red corner stand Jilson & co (and I) saying that not enough cash coming in and a share placing is imminent.
Which corner is correct? We will have our answer soon enough: if there is a placing within the next 12 weeks, then no real cash is being generated and the Reds are right. If the placing is between April and June, then I suspect some cash has been generated but not quite enough - that’s a draw. If no placing by July, then perhaps the Blues have it (or everyone deemed non-vital has been sacked from the company - been there!).
I agree I will humbly apologise to the board if BIDS has not raised cash by end March. Will the Blues agree to do the same if the opposite is true?
The above is my attempt to keep the debate civil.
I’m a buyer if it goes below 7p and a hold for now.