Member Info for illusion

Good morning Tiburn ,
whilst you were producing last nights excellent post i was doing a calculation of FD reserves over the acreage,
assuming there was reserves over only 25% off the acreage 25% net pay 50% recovery the number was so astounding i dare not print it here .
But later i will give the figures and an explanation of how to do the calculation and let people work it out for themselves.
I also noted from the map of the 4 new wells they are spread over the acreage also so maybe not such a far fetched guess of reserves.
GLA.

Thats brilliant Tiburn,
so even at 50% recovery rate
85,000,000 bls @ say $70/bl netbacks of $ 26.67 equates to roughly $2.26 billion over the recovery life time for the field.
thats a staggering No Tiburn.
OMG.
GLA

Course 000 degrees
Deviation 21.5 degrees South
Variation 38 degrees west
Destination the Stars.
lol.

Harpoons loaded ( probably not pc these days ) lol.

Flood forward torpedo tubes ( action stations ).

Well said Tiburn,
i agree something has to be in play here,
some inside track possibly,
hopefully will have smoothed some ruffled feathers lol.

Ok AJEP i may come to regret this but it was a fair question,
i think the Q4's will show profit Production will be back on track,
the potential of the deep reserves and produdtion possibilities will be starting to be realised,
so by the end of January.
£ 1.00.
GLA

Sorry EVAN I mean't you.

And there we have it Jamie ,
He has plenty of good news to let loose but maybe first priority is to get Cuda at the cheapest price possible,
if this was the case then everything happening this week makes sense.
GLA

There is no doubt this plunging SP has been engineered deliberately
The more important and interesting questions are ,
By whom,
and why,
GLA.

I am sorry iron that will not do,
Pot calling the Kettle black on Groundhog day lol.

Good morning everyone,
well i've just had a top up at .2525,
cannot believe i had this opportunity lol.
LB there is a disconnect between market action and the running of the company.
Tiburn is absolutely right.
SWP are ding a brilliant job within the constraints they have on capex, new discoveries , reworking old wells constantly looking for ways to up production.
Anybody who has worked in the oil & gas industry understands this.
The fact that the markets do not understand this is unfortunate and i am sure there other games a foot here.
But eventually the sort of numbers you want will emerge and the realisation that SWP are doing stella work will make all this mudslinging lol a distant memory.
GLA.

Tiburn a question , have i missed something , is that 1982 well completed different to ,
in addition, the BFU 14-30VF location is offsetting an abandoned well one mile to the west, drilled in 1952 which had a well-developed apparent oil-bearing Frontier and Dakota sands. The Frontier and Dakota formations are the primary objective in the exploration portion of this well, potentially opening a new oil field development project close to the Company's existing oil production facilities.
if so then this well is obviously in progress also.

Just a small thought to add on the new deeps drills ,
because it is a conventional play presumably the netbacks will be higher because of no input of MF.
GLA.

Good morning Tiburn,
Dont you feel sometimes that you are banging your head against a brick wall ! lol,
There seem to be people on here who either do not read and digest the information provided by AM, or wilfully choose to ignore it.
Everything you have pointed out over the last 2 days are facts.
We were warned in advance about the topside issues AM forecast that MF production would be slowed by these changes,
No lies no deceit.
Now we have all the possibilities of the deep, all announced details to follow when possible,
the Cuda issue he will not talk about until resolved.
Forget the sp games and machinations, let the naysayers have their games.
Every fact we know is more positives and we will have our day lol.
GLA.

Good afternoon,
I have the feeling that we are unfortunately the victim of circumstances largely beyond the control of AM partly due to the timing of events.
We have become a play thing of the markets,
traders making making small gains most days while others are building positions very discreetly knowing that this share will not move until the right news by RNA will send us flying.
in the mean time we are at the mercy of the MM's which seem to be happy to collude with this as they are making money off the amount of trading going on either way.
GLA.

Good morning Bob,hope you are holding up,
sp been flip flopping with each trade,
but agree with nipper and shouston nearly 3/4 hr with no chat mid morning it was eerie, i felt the same lol.

Another interesting point , if i remember correctly our senior lender has shares to gain at the end of the loan.
So they may wish to refinance to a bigger number and more gains down the line, if AM has the information to back up his plans, another possible reason for radio silence.

I am sorry Doug if you found it long winded but I am trying to justify my position with the facts that we have.
I am making the point because I think it is important to get the Cuda WI (because.)
I very much agree with this quote from Tiburn,
“Federal Deep is BIGGER than current Shannon field - double reserves, double production - once proven. One statement in interview - flow rates and reservoir targets could be confirmed any day - and we have been told news coming around Nov 15th.”

Nobody has yet discovered if the Federal Deep 100% Copl applies over the whole acreage or just to this one plot.
Or was is it because Cuda could not afford to and CNOOC chose not to participate.
Only AM knows the answer to this.
This why I wrote war and peace lol.
Therefore the consequences for the company and our SP future could be monumental.
Do we really want to risk having to share 27% of a substantially bigger pie for the sake of the odd $10m here or there.
I for one do not.
GLA.

Well ladies and gentlemen the picture has become a little clearer,
the lenders of Cuda have decided to play hard ball.
This probably means that AM is now going to have to deal with the organ grinders and not the monkey.
Perhaps we can also deduce that there were no other serious offers from any of our larger and wealthier neighbours as they would have sweept it up absorbing the debt.
So AM has a strong hand and I think Noob makes a strong point “There is a sale agreed with COPL but CUDA don't like the terms of it, this then forces their hand, because the sale is better than insolvency for CUDA. “.
So now we know it will cost a maximum of USD 56,201,405 + interest & costs to purchase Cuda outright.
We also know that the below offer to purchase the Alberta asset was declined.
Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - September 16, 2021) - Cuda Oil and Gas Inc. (TSXV: CUDA)
("Cuda" or the "Company") announces that it has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement
("Agreement") to sell all of the shares of Cuda Energy Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company that holds its Alberta assets, to an arm's length private company (the "Purchaser"). The Purchaser has agreed to pay total cash consideration of $2.67 million, subject to certain adjustments, and has provided a deposit of $135,000. The completion of the transaction is subject to the Purchaser being satisfied with its due diligence review and other customary closing conditions. There is no certainty that all of the closing conditions will be satisfied.

Approximate value USD 2.14 m at that time, (I have outlined previously the industrial disputes and probable management neglect that had reduced production to 50% for the previous year),
with the price of gas rising sharply at the time.
Maybe a reasonable of value currently would be circa USD 6 m.
Therefore we now no that of the 15th November it will become a lender & debtor situation and valuation of Cuda WI will not be in the equation any more.
Tallinn will not be happy to lose any of the CAD$ 13 m they lent,
Their portfolio is not large and this would be a massive hit for them.
The variable is how much PWC will accept as receivers of Bridging finance for their debt.
So if AM has no interest in the Alberta gas asset a discount of around USD 6 M .
This may leave Cuda a small asset with which to carry on trading.
This would leave COPL to carry roughly USD 50 M to walk away with the 27% WI.Cuda.
I am sure we may be able to get the WI at a considerable discount.
But I ask the question, bearing in mind the below which was estimated at $20m purchase using accordian part of the loan
Using Tedoboys excellent and may be conservative calculations.
BFSU.
Without Cuda.
Profit $33.31 m.
Mcap $825.25
Sp £3.71.
With Cuda.
Profit $54.71 m.
Mcap $1367.5 m.
Sp £6.33.
Even if he ended up paying 30 to 40 m for the WI if he could organise the finances wouldn't it still be a fantastic deal for us and the