Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
@Josh
My thoughts exactly. What is MM buying Kelso for?
They are no threat to THG and they have not said anything the THG board and MM should not have been aware of or considered. If MM is being so thin skinned then that's a really bad look. If it's part of a plan, and I can't imagine what, then he should say so.
Any day now. Doh!
Just reading about Terry Leahy who made £17m profit and THG float and hung onto what was then valued at £68m in Shares. What are they worth now, £7m, if that. I do wonder what Matt says to such investors to keep them quiet. What are the promises?
Also, they have been talking about spinning off Beauty and Nutrition since 2021 (as you know). It's been a long wait.
Annnnyyyy say now.
Yup,... Grossly under-valued business is THG.
Under-valued by another 2.4% today. WTF FF!!
So where are we? It seems like sales of Beauty and Nutrition have not only peaked for THG but are actually in a slow decline. Note current Q4 and YOY figures. Add to this, both these divisions are in saturated markets with an endless supply of new entrants. The prospects of sustainable long term organic growth for both are not looking positive. So, the only short to medium term prospect for both comes in a question of the realisation of appropriate valuations. And, I think we are all in raging agreement that they are both mightily under valued compared to selective businesses we choose to look at.
In the short to long term, the only division that could surprise us in terms of its own growth is Ingenuity. It is the one, that any day, or not, could land some seriously impressive contracts. But could it bring in enough to survive without Beauty and or Nutrition.
If any of us II's or PI's want some return from THG then it seems that only a sale of the whole or parts of the business, or, relisting in more favourable markets, is going to do this. If not by this year end (April 24) then when?
I have personally been very well invested in THG for 2 years now. Not only am I well down on capital, I have also forgone about £40k in dividends had I invested elsewhere. It is worrying and painful waiting for this 'value' to be realised.
I do wonder what many of the II's think or know and why they stay. Or is it that 'sunken loss', that they are just more under water than we are.
I am now of the thought that if something doesn't significantly change by mid year, then it might not do for several years. It would be time to leave. Which would be a shame for such a promising business.
@billybam
Best way to time right entry.
Wait for good news and the turn. Although you won't get it at tge exact bottom. You will get it lower than trying to guess the bottom.
Even after today's 100% rise the company is still valued at £39m. The Times reports that if Superdry were bought by a Brand Management company, Superdry's value could soar to £400-£600m. That would be 400p-600p. That's some view on a rerate and explains why Dunkerton is expressing interest in taking it private.
This for a share that started this week at 16p.
Anyway, if this is potential re-rated valuations for Superdry, which is currently in a dire state compared to THG, then what for THG????
Went to my local HFD Auto centre yesterday.
I wanted an Oil Level Sensor replaced. The part costs about £50, + an oil refill. All in, job takes 30-60 mins.
Girl on reception didn't understand the job, part cost or how long it takes but she did know it would cost me more than £300 + a £49 diagnostic check even though my dealer has already done that, because it's HFD company policy. That's an overall cost alot more than the dealer quote.
If this is the abysmal standard HFD operates at then it's got some way to go to recovery.
I thought I'd give HFD a try after an absence since they once told me I needed all my wipers replaced,.... 6 months after they had replaced them. 😬
I think the full YEnd results are going to cast up a serious inventory issue with its subsequent implications.
Over next few months this will go sub 50p at which point it will be a Buy.
Thg with a BETA of 2.41 and such a low PI influence is ripe for Shorters to play with, or manipulate the SP.
I don't actually think Shorters believe THG is a failing business. For them it's just too damn easy to make money from the SP movement.
Why don't more Shorters join in? Investments in others businesses and fear of being burned by a capital event.
I recall a couple of years ago hearing that this company was going to recruit a top notch Chairman to help create a clear achievable strategy and coach the BOD in delivering that strategy.
Did that ever happen?
Asking for a friend.
On Market down days we are down way below the market and on market up days, like today, we are only down slightly.
Doesn't really feel or look like there is a positive jibe or momentum about THG does there. No feeling or signs that it's about to blow.
Matt, I have a great idea.
Why don't you advertise the business for sale, for say, 170. Then we can all be on our way and invest in something that actually grows and pays dividends.
The article states the premium to take it pvte was paid at 47% as opposed to the typical 30%.
Apply that thinking to THG today and 30% would give us 91p and c50% would give us 105p.
Jeezzzz that would still leave me in the red.
Would really do need some price action/re-rate before anything else.
Ocado valuation 5.3bn. THG 0.95bn.
Ocado rev 2.3bn. THG rev 2.0bn.
EBITDA Ocado 0.00, hopes to return to +ve.
THG est 117mn.
If THG metrics were in line with Ocado we would be valued at about 400.
It's been 20 months (May 22) since Matt said 170 fundamentally undervalued THG. A long 20 months for all shareholders with many a false dawn. So many alleged opportunities but none yet have born fruit.
Can Matt really have gone another year without pulling anything significant out of the bag. I know PI's will be highly frustrated if this is the case but what about II's. What will they do. And the employees, can't be much good for them too.
Sometime from the Trading update this week to the Year End Results THG really does need a breakout moment.
If there isn't one then Matt should be feeling pretty bloody stupid about making such a song and dance about buying that huge plastic gorilla.
Can't think of any real logic for MM to buy a stake in Kelso other than to shut them up.
So, if he doesn't want to listen to their ideas about a strategy for THG, then he should imminently tell us what his plans are.
Or is it he's just thin skinned and doesn't welcome anyone else with anything to say.
And for the positive feeling lately, don't forget we are still at only 50% of the offer price when MM told us it significantly undervalued the business.
There has always been lots of consolidation in this sector. If the current SP was indeed a bargain, then quite a few suitors would be running the numbers over PFC. It should be a gift at these prices??
I was long on this for quite some time and got out 18 months ago. Thank goodness. Then all the talk was when the FCA investigation is over and settled, this will rocket. Well, it never did and looks like it never will.
Another classic lesson in don't try to catch a falling knife.
45 mins of trading and total vol is 7.5k.
Talk about stagnant waiting.
Inflation 4.6%
Pre market tfse 100 already +0.76%.
Another good up day coming.
This is the stuff that creates FOMO in investors.