Member Info for Icouldntcomment

just out remainco divisions renamed to reflect results,

my pension

looks****e

What does it matter what the EBITDA or FCF for THG is? They turned it into a £202.4m loss. They do this every year. They can issue positive profit forecasts as often as they like, trouble everyone knows these numpties are going to turn it into a staggering loss.

All they need to do now is operationally copy APN. Simple as that. A streamlined operation and profit management month to month.

Thing is, a CFO worth their money, can tell you within a reasonable band width, what next years results will be, it’s called budgeting. So I don’t know how THG yr end results are always a big surprise.

We made a massive £202m loss this year. I don’t recall hearing a profits warning???

Just £50m difference between THG and APN now.

This is all down to a lack of confidence in THG management now.

“FCF was artificially depressed by necessary restructuring to clean up the business which we won't see in next results.”

Good post Thet, but the problem with THG is that some new exceptionals will appear by next year. If you changed the date, all annual results all sound the same.

What you’ve got to remember about exceptionals is that they are a double whammy. The first payment is the bad decision, contract, investment and the second payment is getting yourself out of it. This has been a THG pattern over the last 5 years. And it will occur again next year. It is a sign of poor management.

If MA bought this business, I can assure you that this would end.

What fools we PI’s are to think it would ever be have been anything else.

Final line nails it for me; “THG Market Cap of £366m fundamentally over values the business, but hey ho, jam tomorrow”.

Just a few days left for the FUDS to persuade you to sell guys and gals. They are sounding desperate 🤣

MM might just have played a blinder yesterday.

He rejected this offer knowing what the Q4 and Q1 results are.

He is going to look an all time great simpleton if this week he turns down a £600m offer just for MP and next week the last two quarters results are disappointing and thus the whole of THG remains valued at under £400m.

I think this offer rejection is the biggest indicator we’ve had that we are about to turn a corner.

Furthermore, notice he said results will be issued on 30th or thereabouts. You think that might be to catch some out.

Yahoo Finance is saying Earnings are out tomorrow. Don’t know how true this is or where they got it from.

As for the results. The Demerger only affects the last two quarters, Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. I think we can assume that there will be no Net profit attributable to Qs 1-3 2024. So what the markets will base it all on are Q4 and Q1, but mainly Q1. The extrapolation from here will be key.

In order to really get the share price to a true value I think dividends are the answer. More so than share buy backs. If Q1 is good then an interim dividend of 1p at end of Q2 and a further 2p at year end. 3p in total. The business should easily be able to afford this and for investors, paying about £1 per share becomes meaningful.

@starfighter, I see your point but would be gobsmacked if II’s were so easy going with their money as to allow MM make them and the PI’s pick up the bill for his failures.

You can’t brag that the ‘24 results are going to show an EBITDA of £92m, with an increased forecast for Yr End ‘25, and then expect to buy everyone out for a small multiple of that when the likes of APN trades on a PE Ratio of 18.

Ingenuity isn’t the case study hear. That Demerger was the right thing to do to save THG and not a practice run.

THG, with Beauty included, is in total only worth £85m more than APN. MP alone should be worth more than twice APN.

Let that sink in. There is a massive lack of confidence in THG, it’s past results and it’s prospects, therefore, it’s leadership.

If this month’s results don’t fully live up to what’s been promised, without Exceptional Costs wiping out EBITDA, then I really don’t know how the CEO and Chairman can stay.

If the results bomb again it is no one else’s fault but theirs. Shame on the BOD if they stay silent.

“LinkedIn post from Matt where he basically said he would take back the whole company on the cheap is the market doesn’t value correctly”.

Yes I recall this. It was an interesting insight into Matt. To make such a statement it means he still sees the company as his and not a plc. He sees he will have no challenge from the Chairman or BOD.

What a thing to say.

Hi Steve, must be a big buyer looking to load up. Go on, tell us who it is!

@jeremybeedle, nice bit of tongue in cheek sarcasm. Well done mate.

APN up 5% at open, mkt cap £285m. Go figure???

The made up stories on here just get better by the day.

Don’t get too excited.

This time last year (17/04) THG RNS notified its shareholders that Apollo was interested in many an offer for all the issued shares in THG.

Just as well it never went through, there’s no way Apollo would have paid more than 27.12p per share 🤣🤣🤣

I think the impact of tariffs needs to be mentioned in the year end results so we can all see what is the actual impact and what is down to market volatility.

There are 4 things affecting this SP today.

1. Uncertainty. That is its history and of the BOD’s making. Poor performance, some smoke and mirrors, never ending exceptional costs, high cost, low margins and MM’s relationship with the city. After the demerger, THG in these results needs to go full on in cleaning this up and providing a clear attainable vision.

2. Buyers. The SP is being held back by lack of investors, shorts and buying by MA. The free float is only so big so this phase is limited and MA only has to end of April.

3. Shorts. They will close pre results and if results good will stay away. I can only hope MM’s efforts to sort out the debt were not in vain being washed away by exceptionals and vagueness. It should be part of a position of clarity.

4. Tariffs. MM needs to show actual impact of tariffs. Although wider economic impact plays, removing the tariff ghost helps.

If these can be sorted by end of April then we pivot to a steady rise to multiples of the current valuation. Now is indeed a good time to buy. What even gamble on a further price fall.

Finally, a lot of chat about what MA might or might not do. If you notice, he doesn’t try to take over the majority of his investments. He simply be invested here to make money and provide commercial synergy in his dealings with THG.

Notice when the panic has eased off all the FUD’s are noticeably absent. What a load of scoundrels their paymasters are!

Out of interest, does anyone know what the free float currently sits at?