Member Info for Icouldntcomment

****inastick 90 aka steve1001, if that’s what you think then why are you here?

You really couldn’t make it up. We are weeks away from the first demerger quarter results and first annual forecast for Remainco and this ‘trade war’ happens.

Only it’s not a trade war. It’s the richest country in the world wanting more. Blaming foreigners again because its own businesses wanted to produce their goods in the cheapest markets and American consumers wanted everything virtually for free.

It’s a heist based on imagined grievance. It’s a rich kid who just can’t accept poor kids get something too. And. The impact on global supply chains are going to kick us all.

The World needs to wean itself off the US market in every respect.

I think the markets have over reacted. Everyone exits stocks quick to mitigate losses. Once reality sets back in then the markets will bounce. We simply got dragged down thur and fri with the 250.

The net effect on the uk economy by the 10% tariff will amount to no more than reduced growth by 0.1% and the big losers will be the likes of auto and whisky I.e. huge exporters to the US.

I think it’ll all calm down by mid next week.

Wow, UK got half the general tariff increase that the eurozone got yet pre market the ftse 100 is down 1.6%, twice as much as main euro countries.

Do you feel like you’ve been scammed?

Text HELP to CEL Solicitors.

..."RemainCo is now a Highly Profitable business capable of paying dividends...". Especially now £225 million has just been paid off the loans...JAO Adyor GLA!!!.

@stanley, you really have to take what anyone in THG says with a pinch of salt. If MM, GLA or the BOD said “Good morning “ to me; I’d go outside and have a look!

It’s not 8m shares, it’s £8m. Over 23m shares and looks like Sell at just over 32p

The peak price for this share just after IPO was 796.

I bought in after it had fallen a staggering 86.55% from this high to 107. A bargain no!

Since then it unbelievably has fallen a further 68.5% to today’s price of 33.76.

33.76 is in itself a fall of 95.8% from its peak.

Either this is the bottom of a bargain of a share or ?????

Right now I simply think everyone is waiting for the results, there is no appetite for anymore risk here.

Company profits are measured the same across all businesses ie, EBITDA. It’s the clearest way of seeing the business before deductions as Interest, tax, Depreciation and Amortisation vary from year to year. Exceptionals definitely are an annual unkown.

I believe the standard valuation is 16 x EBITDA unless the business is deemed to have great growth prospects, sentiment, in which case it is greater than 16 or if prospects are not looking so good then it’s less than 16.

Therefore, if EBITDA were to get to 200m, that would be 3.2bn, all else being equal, or 230 per share. An EBITDA of 100m would give us around 100 per share.

If those 44m shares were a buy then market makers have been accumulating for sometime. I don’t know how many share Tracker Funds would need in total but 3.5 to 4% might just about be it.

So, the thought of a rush for trackers on Monday may have already just finished??

This still might be a big positive as there are now no MM held shares out there and any future purchases now require sellers. So, SP can still rise from Monday but not the way we expected.

That is the key to all this; “favourable Q1 update”.

I’ve said it before, but I just can’t help thinking that these results will once again be loaded with exceptionals and we will be treated to jam tomorrow. The same story, that everything will come right if you just give it another year.

THG is now a mature listed company, not an entrepreneurial growth story. And, it is going to take a different sort of CEO to run it to its maximum effect. I can’t but look on with envy at Rolls Royce going from 39p to over 800 with a professional at the helm.

I swear I hope I’m wrong and MM has turned a corner and these results are great and next year’s forecast is exceptional, but 4 years of the opposite can make someone highly cynical.

Stanleyb

Posts: 934

Price: 34.80

No Opinion

RE: Mike AshleyToday 12:25

“never did things much of the guardian...weren't they one of the one's ****ging thg off since the ipo along with a few other rags and dodgy hedge funds?”

Well Stan, they were right weren’t they??? Maybe you should start reading them. Hope you’re not into comic books like Daily Mail, Express and the Sun 🤣🤣🤣

I said all his “business dealings “. He didn’t own many of the businesses they did mention. Just had shares in them.

Big article in Guardian online Sat (weekend) about MA and all his many business dealings. THG wasn’t mentioned 😲

@mover, yup someone is loading up again today. Might explain the price suppression.

Investor95, yes that should be the case. In the past profits and then some were splurged, mainly on Ingenuity resulting in a Net massive loss. (Note, the term Massive Loss is a new accounting term introduced by ACCA for businesses like THG. Who talk profit all year and then opaquely declare a loss).

So, for 2024 although EBIT is on target you just know Exceptional Costs, probably associated with the demerger will eat up all that profit and we’ll declare a loss again. This is why we’re so low with the SP. No one has any idea what Net profit will be. And, with the company’s history of never actually producing one, there is little confidence. Investors like to see a net profit because apart from showing a well run and growing business, it can also pay dividends or buy back shares. THG has never done either.

I have a feeling we’ll see the same net loss this year and offered jam tomorrow again for next year. The only hope is without Ingenuity the markets might just believe it this time.

At guidance EBITDA this share should be worth 150. Unless of course there are exceptional costs in the results that once again zaps confidence in the future.

Would have thought PE firms would be having a close look at THG. There is quite some low hanging fruit plus potential. A PE takeover with a 4-5 exit timeline would be quite lucrative for them.

Not sure PE’s look at these boards or anyone on here knows someone in a substantial PE firm, just thought I’d mention it out of curiosity.

Multiple buys of just 8 shares.

What’s the point of that? Is it code for something?

Nice weekend off steve1001, Mon 8.00am start. That’s a bind.