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If you look at the value of all of the different divisions, if Ingenuity is worth £1Bn, then the real value of the business is up to £4.5Bn, or 330/share. This is also two times revenue, so about right.
Kelso's SOTP'S put it at £3.3Bn or 220/share.
Not unreasonable to hold out for 300+ then.
There was a good article in the FT on 16th. Don't know if discussed here, called, 'Should UK Boards take Apollo seriously?'
Gist of it is, Apollo really goes in hard for a steal of a low buying price.
"The sun god of bailing on UK bids
Apollo Global has developed a reputation in the UK for abandoning deals at the eleventh hour.
That has only been underscored after the US investment giant saw two possible take-privates collapse in the past four days."
That of course would be THG and Wood Group, whom they dropped at the 11th hour after making 5 bids.
So, when MM said, " THG described Apollo’s bid as “unacceptable” and based on “smart financial engineering”, he wasn't being unkind or thinking just about himself.
The long and short of this is that it is likely Apollo did not offer anything like we thought and they are not part of the long term solution to THG's future.
Surely they can only be referring to THG?
City Pie, I know.. I think my tool could give a better prediction.
No it F#####g isn't.
Will you kids cut this out. Where the hell did someone get 90p from anyway? Coming when, give us a date if your so good.
F######g hell. Back to the 50's, just call me Marty McFly.
Everyone saying, it's worth this, that and the next thing. And, although it's now worth 59, some on here under the delusion, along with MM, that it's worth 220 plus a Premium.
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis says this share is worth 59p. You can dream all you like that it's worth 100,200,300 or 400,..... it's worth 59p!!!!
I really don't care about MM's GS, which PE might buy it or anything else, I care about this supposedly top flight BOD leveraging this business and letting the city see some real growth. Then the SP will might rise.
Today it's going to be 40,55,70, £1, 170 and 200. Maybe even hit 250 if you close your eyes and click your heels 3 times. Could even go to 40. I can top up at 40.
Today there will also be another bidder, maybe 3 of them and Shorts will get in so that they can get out before they are squeezed out.
Quite an exciting day, what!
Oh here we go. Qube back at 0.55%.
Difficult to see it falling much further from current price given better expectations for Q2 results. But guess they might grease it down. Really is just manufacturing profits by them. Should be illegal.
Share price now worth less than 25% of SOTP'S valuation. It is just a bad dream. Rinse repeat.
Well that was all very interesting over the last few weeks. Nothing to see here, move along.
@Josh. Ditto. I own 300k of thg from my SIPP. Had this offer been taken I could have doubled my pension. Our point is; there is a life attached to each PI. I wonder if it is ever considered?
Here's another analogy.
You have a classic old car which everyone tells you is worth £620.
A local classic car parts dealer tells you he could break up your car and get £2200 for all the parts. But he doesn't make you an offer.
A rich bloke passes your house, loves your car and offers you £2500 for it.
You're an idiot though and you say, nah, maybe I'll get more than that in 10 years time.
@Rock8. Who cares how much of the 35% they buy out. I only care about the price my SIPP gets. And the simple reality is, that in that situation we will be shafted.
What MM and BOD really need to do now is deliver dome results and demonstrate some future long term potential. You can indefinitely keep saying something is worth lots more when there is little or no evidence. If MM can't get the SP over 100 by Sept, then he really needs to go.
I don't think that would be good for PI's. Why would MM and QIA give us 35% a Premium price. I think in that scenario MM and BOD would suddenly realise its worth little more than the current market price per share.
Would be really useful if someone finds out from IR what Apollo final offer was.
There are currently no open shorts (>0.5%) in THG.
Hope it stays that way.
Current final trade of the day over 500,000 buy at 68.69
@Hosai. Agree, but we can't stay here indefinitely and continue to argue it's worth at least 4x the current SP. At some point it just is what it is and as time passes it's harder to argue otherwise.
Here we are 1 year on from when MM said £1.70 under valued the Co.
Today he's pretty much said the same. And, I suspect, the Apollo offer was higher than 170, more likely around SOTP value.
Now it's actually 63p.
He can't credibly keep this line up. He now has a year to get the SP to about 200 otherwise it's not under valued is it?
Wood Group went through this recently.
After discussions ended Apollo came back 5x with offers in the next 6 month. WG accepted the 5th.