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Interestingly in the Netherlands the average length of a covid patient in intensive care is now 8 days, down from 22 days at the peak. Assuming other countries have had a similar change it means you could have the same number of sick people this winter, and you would have over 2.5 times more capacity than before.

Your shorting a leisure stock a month before 3 different vaccines are giving their results? You def have some balls!

Sounds like those stellar future boohoo results are already priced in. Buy the rumour, sell the news.

They are going to have a ton of blockbusters for 2021, less films have been put on pvod recently, for instance candyman kept being rumoured to go out on pvod as universal had been more pvod friendly but they've now decided to hold it for 2021 theatrical release.

Candyman being held till 2021 wasn't necessarily negative as it had previously been rumoured that Universal were going to release it pvod but they clearly decided against this.

Infection rates in the neighbouring Netherlands have also increased, but improvements in treatment mean that intensive care units are not under strain.
The length of stay for Dutch coronavirus patients needing intensive care has dropped from an average of 22 days to eight.
Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch Association for Intensive Care, said that survival rates for patients had also improved significantly, by about 30 per cent.
“We still need to do more research into the causes, but it is certainly a very promising development,” he said.
“We don’t know if there will be a second corona wave and how big it will be, but if it is comparable to the first, then we need to expand the ICUs much less.”
A drop from 22 days in intensive care to 8 is very promising, gives over 2.5 times more capacity.

It's a slight shame that there is an assumption made that full lockdowns were what changed the course of the virus and because of that many leaders such as Cuomo feel they need to keep control over business' etc. However the fact is Sweden's deaths hit a plateau and fell at exactly the same time virtually as all the places that locked down. If it's true that the average age of a covid death is 82 as Professor Karol Sikora says then when you think about it the deaths had to naturally hit a plateau. There was a great recent viral video here along some of these lines - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac&t=1507s

Yes it's actually ideal in terms of cash flow because the income statement will be showing a statement of affairs which is worse than the actual cash flows it is representing due to deferred rents etc whereas the tax credit given back to cine will be based on this bad income statement.

It's worth noting that whatever the loss is in quarter 2 it appears likely cineworld can claim an immediate tax credit of 19% of the loss. https://www.macintyrehudson.co.uk/insights/article/covid-19-results-in-early-corporation-tax-repayment-opportunity

Have to remember that UK cinemas all ticket revenue as a 15% mark up due to vat. Also the European cinemas don't depend on blockbusters and so of them also have Mulan out so less of a stress for these. For USA a lot of these are only just getting back to normal and are still at 25% capacity, I imagine a lot of staff will still be on furlough etc and also that if only allowed 25% capacity they would have neogicated deals with landlords to not be paying full rent until they are allowed to fully open.

AMC also reported a loss for 2019 unlike cineworld which didn't help them obv.

Main reason AMC's market cap was lower coming into covid was it was crazy highly shorted up until the end of 2020 due to Americans who are convinced that streaming will destroy the cinema. Also AMC blamed 2019 being slightly worse year for movies and the change in having to add operating leases to the balance sheet frightening investors. It also had a slightly worse debt position than cineworld even in proportion to having more cinemas. However it is still the case that in terms of covid it has rebounded much more strongly than cineworld.

Both vaccines and what appears to be increasing evidence of herd immunity in places of the world due to deaths per case ratio dropping will increasingly be priced in which will be good for leisure and travel stocks.

Johnnykipper please stop with your ridiculous posts about laidback. Laidback is clearly invested like a lot of us and when he says "100p by end of month" etc he just being optimistic which is surely allowed as he might be right he might be wrong. Saying you invested based on this is insane.

I think delaying WW made sense as its a sequal they were hoping to make a billion, and I get the impression comic movie fans tend to slightly more be the types who like to play computer games and hunker down and believe there is a zombie apocalpse outside at the moment (no offense to fans, it's just a pattern I notice in online comments), whereas tenet slightly less so.

Tenet will have opened in Mexico, India, Japan & Brazil by the 24th too so still some international markets to come aswell as US states.

3 vaccines have results in next month, just need one to say it works and all leisure and travel stocks will be heading up and online and tech shares that have gained will have a pull back after profit taking.
Even if none of the vaccines worked the death per infection ratio is being reduced all the time after the huge France and Spain cases have resulted in far less hospilizations than in the spring, added to this Sweden down to 1 or 0 deaths per day without locking down means things will be looking up in terms of covid over the next month and this will eventually show in the sp once people see through the headlines imo.

We should also remember that more people appear to be buying concessions which will help nicely. Cali should announce more openings tomorrow and potentially some ones already open increasing in capacity. Cuomo could budge anytime who knows. Also remember all tickets sold in UK have a 15% vat markup till Jan 12th.

A key reason we can be optimistic that covid will not cause many more excess deaths is firstly that the average age of covid death is 82 and secondly, as was pointed out by Ivor Cummins a while back, all the countries hit badly by covid had a drop in total deaths in the year before Feb/March due to less bad flu seasons. This was the case in - UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden and USA. Whereas places which did not suffer badly with covid - Finland, Germany, Estonia, Hungary, Luxembroug, Lithuania, Norway and Portugal all had higher or normal total deaths in the year before Feb/March.
So basically the first group had more frail people coming into this spring than the latter group. We are obviously no longer in this situation.

It's not ideal but ultimately all staff will go back on furlough 3 weeks and I'm sure they will negociate with landlords etc. It's 11 cinemas so not sure it's quite big enough to rock the sp too much.