Member Info for Hosai

It's true that AMC and cinemark futures haven't moved much since the announcement. I supporse it's just the fact that Mooky mentioned Bond in the results call, perhaps as something to look forward towards. They did say they can continue as they are until Sept 2021, I assume "as they are" would mean some semi-big movies peaks and low times like now. Obv Bond is now moved but techinically speaking it would still be being released within their year window they were talking about up till Sept 2021.

AMC got more debt funding to tide them over, why assume cineworld can't? They were going to borrow about 2.1 billion for cineplex.

The way I see it aslong as the covid threat appears to be diminishing then Mooky can point the lenders to the fact that 2021 will be jam packed for blockbuster films.

It sounded like the UK covid "second wave" was part of the decision as thats a big market for Bond, seems short sighted in my view as it's already looking more like a second fizzle.

Ocean their loss was mostly goodwill impairments and asset impairments, this will all come back. Even the remaining $396 million loss included rents that actual fact have been deferred or even potentially to be abated. You can't add just add a billion onto their debt.

Even if an asteroid was due to hit the earth SAGE would be telling us our priority is ensuring people on the spaceships to the moon social distance and wear masks.

HateMMs that isn't true, the ONS data coming out today is indicating the increase is already slowing, despite the country mostly being open, even in the local lockdown areas all business' are open.
The "second wave" is a meaningless term and no-one promoting it has ever given any evidence on why there would be one.

Potentially, LA prob is 90% likely to open by Oct 13th (it only just missed the cusp what would have meant it opening on the 6th). Therefore depends also on NY, there's a fairly good chance all cinemas could be open by the end of October imo, though not at full capcities obviously. I think the fact that LA looks likely to open will be enough for Bond to hold it's release date and therefore could see 60p by then.

Not sure...he hasn't said "lolz" yet but maybe realized that would be too obvious.

Only 281 more cases than last Thurs...Vallance looking more foolish by the day.

I agree Stuart. Robert Pestons show is a case in point...the mps or journalists have about 2 mins to talk and then get cut off because they've always "run out of time". How can it be there is never enough time to actually debate any of the big issues, like whether we should lockdown etc, but there is enough time for about 12 hours a day of semi-entertaining yet pointless tv.

Good news...they were taking an age, maybe some more of the few last states will follow...soon it'll just be Cuomo.

Odean is owned by AMC.

Most of the loss was goodwill and asset impairments which will likely recover. Take away them and the loss was around $396 million which was around what most were predicting in line with AMC, and like AMC even this loss didn't reflect the actual cashflow lost.

Pretty sure we'd know if they were going to announce something big, these things always get leaked about 12 hours before.

That is good news...I am tired of these 2 acting like we are in a zombie apocalpyse, and their dour "you have terminal cancer" style delivery. Lots of respected scientists do not agree with them.

I don't have the brains to properly understand this but this study that just came out indicates herd immunity thresholds might be just 15%, which would mean we are actually almost there.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1
It says this in discussion:
"Specifying an average infection fatality ratio of 0.3% gives an estimated herd immunity threshold of 15%. Whatever value is specified for the infection fatality ratio, a model that allows for heterogeneity has better fit to the data than the homogeneity model and supports herd immunity as the main factor underlying the reversal of the epidemic.
One objection that has been raised to estimates that herd immunity thresholds for COVID-19 are less than 20% is that far higher infection rates have been reached in local hotspots such as Manaus [10]. However country-level herd immunity thresholds as estimated here are not likely to be homogeneous over every locality. In hotspots where the basic reproduction number is higher than the population average, the herd immunity threshold and overshoot of this threshold will be correspondingly higher, with or without heterogeneity."

That's net debt, you're including all the operating leases that would coincide with them earning revenue, what used to be an operating cost.

So they can get 100% of the income on their own movies instead of 50 - 65%.

I agree Clarke, only thing is your first point might perhaps conflict with the second. But either way it's good news, as either there are lots of real cases and way less people are dying compared to before, or all the new cases aren't real cases for the most part, which still also would be good news as it means despite us and Europe for the most part being open there is not significant spread.