Member Info for Hosai

I agree about the students Jm4tw, 770 positives and only 78 showing symptoms, shows how ridiculous the "we're all in it together" mantra is. Covid is obviously more dangerous for older people but for younger people flu is more dangerous.

It was estimated by one of the brokers after their interim report they estimated cine had around 600 million in cash equivelents, assuming 50 million cash burn a month from closed cinemas it would would seem they can stay afloat a while, obviously also need the covenents waived. Only thing is whether they would still open some of the US cinemas that have not yet shown Tenet. North Carolina cinemas opened just last week, but that was before Bond was delayed.

Ridiculous post P3t3R. There lots of different predictions for when herd immunity kicks in from different scientists, it may even be kicking in now, so don't pretend there is concensus around this.
Also you are ignoring the fact that average covid death age is 82. It basically kills elderly frail people, there are now less frail people who have sadly died in the spring (we had a soft flu year before that so had more elderly people than usual). Also as a new virus there was less immunity than the average flu initially so was a harder spike than normal. Elderly people are now also taking more care to not get it with care homes protected as best as possible and others are immune. So you really can't just assume mass death, the IFR has decreased massively since the spring. In fact the who now predict 750 million people in the world have had covid, with 1.03 million deaths that's an IFR of 0.14% basically the same as flu.

As has been mentioned Easyjet had rumours of administration last weekened, over the next week it only went down by 15%. Which cine would mean going down to around 33.5p.
It's the fact that Mooky is so invested himself that he will make the difficult and painful short term decisions in order to preserve the long term.
Perhaps if cine get a cast iron guarantee from studios that the December releases will still happen, which would be more likely if all US states are allowed to open, then they would open in December.
Situation still mostly revolves around progression with covid, or our perception of covid, as improved situation means covennants likely to be waivered, states allowed to open, films relseased and people not afraid or discouraged from getting out and about.

In some ways maybe the Bond delay made things easier for Mooky, he might have been toying with this but Bond in Nov as the carrot would have made the decision harder. Without blockbusters they will lose more money then if open so I suppose it makes sense, it's bad for sentiment though obviously. However hopefuly when they reopen it will be at a time when upcoming blockbusters feel more assured.

Great post Bullsbears, I think the news feels a shock, but I think as long as one is a long term holder rather than a day trader wanting short term gains then it's okay imo as I still believe in the future of cineworld and that it will come good with all these big movies to come.

Actually they only fell by 0.2%

I don't believe it would sink that low guitarman, just as that would be a 50% fall, wheras AMC and cinemark futures only fell by about 1% after bond delay was announced...obv the closures for cine add to the bad news, and it will be a bad few days, but it seems some already felt cinemas would have to close after the bond delay and as I said the other cinemas didn't seem to move that much.

Ultimately Mooky must feel it's the right decision. They are closed in Israel, maybe it became obvious the closed Israel cinemas were bleeding less cash than UK. I think they will wait until LA is open, atleast to 50 percent capacity, and also on Cuomo.
If both these states get announced, then I think studios would altleast stick to their big December films, and Mooky would open in UK then. LA should be open with 25% capacity on 13th or so, then early Nov 50% capacity.

Peckham Plex, an independent cinema in southeast London, wrote to customers last month to tell them it would be closing on September 25, after poor sales since it reopened in August. “For some it is the understandable concerns about the risks of Covid-19, but for most it is about the lack of available films,” the chairman, John Reiss, wrote.
Tyrone Walker-Hebborn, who has owned Genesis cinema in Whitechapel, east London, for 21 years, called the Bond postponement a “huge blow on top of many others we’ve had in the last few months”.
Despite a “brief shot in the arm” from the release of Tenet in July, Genesis has been taking about 30% less than it usually would at this time of the year.
Cineworld, which is expected to announce its closure as early as tomorrow, had reopened the majority of its cinemas in July.
The chain, which declined to comment, warned last week that it did not expect admissions to recover to pre-Covid levels until at least 2023.
The majority of its staff will be asked to accept redundancy, with possible incentives to rejoin the company when theatres reopen — likely to be next year.
The delay is not only a blow to cinemas. The 007 franchise has scores of commercial deals worth hundreds of millions of pounds with brands such as Aston Martin, brewer Heineken, watchmaker Omega and DHL, the delivery company. David Haigh, chief executive of the consultancy Brand Finance, said he estimated the Bond brand is worth as much as £10bn.
The delay means a painful few months ahead for British cinema. Tim Richards, chief executive of the Vue chain, which has 90 cinemas in the UK, said there were many occasions when a Bond release would be the biggest story of the year. “It will be a potential death blow to smaller operators,” he said.

Britain’s biggest cinema chain is set to close all its screens after the new James Bond film was delayed until the spring — robbing audiences of a must-see movie and the industry of a lifeline.
Cineworld, which has 128 theatres in the UK and Ireland, is this weekend writing to Boris Johnson and the culture secretary, Oliver Dowden, to say that the industry has become “unviable” because of the decision by film studios to postpone big-budget releases.
It is drawing up plans to close all its UK sites as soon as this week, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The move puts up to 5,500 jobs at risk.
Film industry bosses had hoped that the planned release of No Time to Die would kickstart a revival of cinema-going next month and resuscitate a sector that has been fighting for survival since the lockdown in March.
But on Friday, MGM and Britain’s Eon Productions said the latest Bond film, due to hit UK cinemas on November 12 — having already been delayed from April — would be pushed back to April next year.
The decision follows a lacklustre box office performance for Christopher Nolan’s Tenet and leaves cinemas with virtually no big movies to lure families until late December, when Warner Bros’ Dune and Wonder Woman 1984 are due to be released.
Bond’s delay will be a huge blow to cinema operators who had brought staff back from furlough and reopened in anticipation of a busy opening weekend.
Phil Clapp, chief executive of the UK Cinema Association, said: “The announcement is probably the most serious blow to UK cinema operators of a number of similar announcements over the past few weeks and will undoubtedly cause a significant number of cinemas to close again.”
Film studios had already pushed back the release of some films and opted to show some on streaming services instead. Disney shunned cinemas altogether with its newest film, Mulan, which it released on Disney Plus. It has left cinemas scratching around for something to show.
Adam Cunard, whose Picturedrome group owns seven cinemas in towns including Bognor Regis in West Sussex and Wisbech in Cambridgeshire, has brought in local comedians to entice customers. Cunard, 33, said trading had been “horrendous” in recent weeks, with daily admissions down from 300 to just 20.
“When you rely on your summer release as Pinocchio, an Italian film dubbed in English, God help you,” he said. “All my staff can see the writing on the wall. There’s no one coming through the doors.”
Picturedrome is among the 150 smaller operators that run 350 venues in the UK, out of a total of 800. The Cinema Association estimates that about 70% of these are open. The rest had been planning to start up again in the coming weeks in anticipation of the release of No Time to Die.
(continued)

Well...it's been an eventful weekend, prob won't be an enjoyable monday. A frustrating situation, with the film studios. Need covid situation to improve or atleast our perception of it to improve in order to get people back out and give confidence to studios to release.Hopefully the European ones can stay open and some of the US cinemas that have only just started showing Tenet might still stay open for a while more, San Fran should open on Tues. Hope a film gets brought forward.

I believe it was estimated from one of the brokers recently that cine had around 600 million in cash equivelents available to it, theoretically could therefore make a 50 million loss per month for 12 months before running out of money.

Boix if you check out the recent reopening article it seems fairly likely LA will open Tues the 13th, they only just missed the cut off that would have meant opening on Tues 6th I believe. With NY it's hard to know, with Cuomo but it's one of the few left to open. I don't think shuttering up would be a good idea, not sure furlough is even still available after this month. In the UK atleast with the vat cut they can make a profit at 15% less capacity then they would normally have to have.

It sounds like the UK spike was part of their thinking in delaying Bond which is a shame as it looks as though it's already flattening. Things might look a lot different by Tues the 13th if you have LA open and cases in Europe actually start falling after this second fizzle. Only thing is I think NY might go through it's own second fizzle. However they may look to Europe and realize it won't be as bad this time and/or Cuomo might finally decide they have to live with the virus, plus LA opening might also pressurize Cuomo.

I agree guitarman but it makes a big difference if lenders can see light at the end of the tunnel.

The "story" was them saying they are still confident it could be approved by the end of the year, and also that it could be rolled out in 3 months. Whereas the day before Imperial college had been saying it would take a year. So was a mixture of them saying we can roll it out quicker, but also just the fact that they sound bullish about their vaccine similar to pfitzer.

It seems you can be fairly confident that one of Astrazeneca, pfitzer or moderna will have a semi-effective vaccine in the coming months...once the inital jabs have been carried on the most vulnerable you take away a lot of the fear surrounding covid.

Hmm the Bond news might be balanced by the astrazeneca story in the Times...perhaps why AMC and cinemark futures have only fallen 1%? For cine it would surely encourage lenders.

Just need to hold through the pain I think, San Fran to open on Tues, LA the tues after. Pfitzer vaccine news at end of Oct (even though I'm an immunity guy). Maybe a movie or 2 will be brought forward. Mookie will do whatever is best, I'm sure they can find liquidity from debt if they need it in future.