Member Info for Hosai

Depends on LA and New York. LA could be open in 2-4 weeks.

According to telegraph Sir Patrick Vallance has a £600,000 shareholding in glaxosmithkline..

You're right JWD in reality it is more of a positive thing in the broader scheme of things but the market might not like it in the short term, but then certainity from the results may outweigh that.

Unfortunately the film delays will likely send it down tomo, but then certainity provided with results may apply upwards pressure...perhaps the two may cancel each other out.

I'm not sure, it's gone up a bit but still very low. It always goes up very year in September though.
According to this article looks like Spain's cases has already peaked anyway - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-covid-really-rising-in-spain-a-look-at-the-data

If Uk follows France and Spains cases which it should it will be at 10,000 cases a day by mid to late Oct, which will mean with the 0.4% death rate per case they gave (it's prob lower than this) there would be 40 deaths a day by mid Nov. Doesn't exactly indicate NHS overwhelm.

Sounds like Mulan likely hasn't done well nor pvod in general https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcBDFsL2YgE

Although not 100% it would be that high coz it might be restricted due to being one quarter of the year, however in general you can carry back losses up to 3 years.

Also the tax credit for quarter 2 loss will help. Say for example if a 450 million loss had been made (though obviously this wouldn't mean they'd lost this in cashflow) then they would recieve tax credit of 450 x 19% = 85 million.

Not sure what evidence that is John, deaths fell in Sweden at the same time as the places that locked down without Sweden changing anything, now they're down to 0 to 1 death a day and low cases.

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/

Depends how you look at it, in terms of covid if you look at France and Spain there has been a massive reduction in the number of people dieing per case, even taking into account the 3 week lag. However rather than less people dieing per case, it's more the fact that in the spring there was probably around 100,000 to 200,000 cases a day which those deaths were responding to. If these countries get through the next few weeks without a proper shutdown it will show immunity is greater than we all think, as there are less people around to infect.

Good post Johnny, also whatever quarter 2 loss is, 19% of it can be claimed back immediately as a tax credit.

Interestingly if you look at Spains graph on worldometer, it is clear that cases reached a peak about 3 weeks ago and have stayed fairly constant since then even with their haphazard backdating cases over the last week, it's a roughly the same amount of cases as the peak in spring. With the 3 week lag their deaths now are corresponding with the beginning of their peak and will likely stay for the next few weeks at an average of around 100 - 125 deaths per day which may or may not push total deaths a fraction above normal. Compared to a 7 day average of 866 deaths per day in the spring there has been roughly a 775% reduction in deaths per case.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

I don't think cine or AMC was overvalued on a dividend basis, there were many commentators calling it cheap back in Jan/Feb when it was over 200p. AMC had worse debt in proportion to cinemas and made a 2019 loss which increasingly hurt their market cap. However in AMCs defense it got shorted to death partly due to Americans becoming certain that streaming companies would kill cinemas which obv I disagree with. Therefore I'm not sure it's fair to say AMC was overvalued.

John where are you getting your AMC 22,000 screens from. Wiki puts their screens at 11,091 and they've sold cinemas since then and their own website put the number of screens at "over 11,000". Whereas cineworld has 9,518 screens. So AMC had 16.53% more screens.
Coming into covid AMC had 4.9 billion in debt, compared to cineworlds 3.5 billion in debt, so had 40% more debt pre-covid. Therefore taking into account screens and debt clearly in the worse position.

A small silver lining in terms of cash flow is whatever loss they make in quarter 2 they can get an immediate tax credit back for 19% of this loss. https://www.macintyrehudson.co.uk/insights/article/covid-19-results-in-early-corporation-tax-repayment-opportunity

A bit of a strawman John, don't think many people believe that it's a hoax. However it is the case that the media and social media can work things up into a frenzy. I don't think the public is used to seeing daily updates of how many people have died today of something, and most people have no idea how many people normally die in a day. It does seem a little strange to be going crazy about an illness that kills people at the average age of 82, which is basically life expectancy itself. I don't have a problem with local lockdowns though so as to not overwhelm a hospital but general lockdowns are very damaging.

Interesting Johnny, and that's a film made slightly more for families who Imo would be less likely to pirate. Imagine the level of pirating for a pvod film geared towards young adults. Game of Thrones always used to break records for the amount of illegal pirating and streaming.

Well he just said a second lockdown would be disasterous for our economy. It's fairly clear he is going to follow France and Spain who have far more cases, and only do local lockdowns at most.