Member Info for Hosai

What is your expertise?

John most people labelled "covid deniers" are quite normal, rational people. Here are some good recent videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aG1YlF8PH9E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac&t=1143s

Great article newbie, hopefully they can just raise it as debt if need be, then pay a good chunk back after 2021 when there will be a new blockbuster out basically every few weeks.

John that reversal is old news, and we all know about Cuomo.
If the cases do remain as they are they will open on Oct 6th, obv only time will tell if that will happen.
https://deadline.com/2020/09/l-a-county-coronavirus-update-los-angeless-covid-19-numbers-now-below-state-threshold-for-reopening-with-one-catch-1234582486/

Assuming San Fran and LA cases remain as they are they will open Oct 6th, which will give confidence to movie studios.

I still don't understand what has happened to AMCs debt, this was their situation in April https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2020/04/amc-bankruptcy-reports

Exactly toast there's going to be blockbusters one after the other, it will be an incredibly strong year.
Also the fact that the covid situation has actually improved a lot (when you actually look at the data beyond headlines) will eventually seep into the public sentiment.

Well if AMC can magic away 2.3 billion of debt then cieworld can do the same, this is great news!

AMC was 4.9 billion in debt coming into covid what has happened to the 2.3 billion?

How did AMC magic away their debt? They came into covid with 40% more debt.

Also the tax credit from regal which I think was something like 150 or 200 million

Didn't we know they'd be dire? Leaving aside goodwill and asset impairments which arguably don't mean that much it was a $396 million loss which seemed pretty much in line with expectations after AMC's results and obviosuly this is just the income statement they haven't actually lost that in cash flow.

It looks like both LA and San Francisco could open on Oct the 6th aslong as their cases don't increase over the next couple of weeks so would be a big day in terms of number of cinemas reopening.

Sounds like LA could potentially be open at 25% capacity on the 6th Oct if the numbers hold till then. A few weeks after that it could move up to 50%. Therefore in terms of LA it could more or less be open by end of Oct as mentioned for the base case scenario in the report.
https://deadline.com/2020/09/l-a-county-coronavirus-update-los-angeless-covid-19-numbers-now-below-state-threshold-for-reopening-with-one-catch-1234582486/

John is okay then to call you a herd immunity denier? Interesting that in Spain their cases peaked about 3 and half weeks ago at average of around 8,500 cases a day. They are not "doubling every week" as Patrick Vallance suggested. They haven't really changed anything, most places are open, only some local lockdowns in Madrid. So what is stopping the spread? Potentially more immunity than we think.
Their deaths are at an average of 113 deaths per day (compared to average of 866 deaths a day in the spring peak).
How about you update your idea of how dangerous covid is instead of labelling anyone who questions the assumptions a "denier"?

Outside of the goodwill and asset impairment the loss was $396.2 million, which is probably around what people expected after AMCs results.

I think the pay as you grow is just for small business but the extended vat cut is useful.

Times article also mentioned extending loan terms to 10 years.

Looks like the bulk of the loss was from goodwill impairment which just reflects the current position with covid, outside of that that the loss was 396.2 million, which is probably around what people expected. Obviously that doesn't mean they've lost that in cash flow due to rent deferrals and abatements etc it's just is how it's laid out on the income statement.

I understand John but in this case there is rather a conflict of interest. Is someone invested in a vaccine company going to want to suggest the Swedish immunity model or are they more likely to say lets wait for a vaccine to save us?