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Hi Bramley

Yes, agree very much with what you are saying -good post.

A couple of other points were mentioned today. One was to do with sensitivity.If the tests are oversensitive they will pick up fragments of old virus someone may have had. If they are not sensitive enough then they may not pick up those who have only just picked up the virus. It may be that going forward we need more sophisticated tests possibly combining antibody with antigen. If you are antigen positive and antibody negative you have just got it, if on the other hand you are positive on both you had it in the past - just a thought and a possibly why we are investing in antibody R&D now.

The other thing that may of be of concern is the apparent increase in other providers of similar tests. Is the market too crowded? The chaos that UK gov is in makes it difficult to see the wood from the trees, but the impression is not enough tests to go round and hence a possible reason for not making a decision on airport testing. They are worried they don't have enough tests to go round and don't want to admit it.

There will be endless pressure form private sector for more tests. The article below is about MSC starting sailing again. Just one cruise ship has tested all crew and 3000 passengers twice each! Just in Italy alone there are 70 million cruise passengers a year. Imagine worldwide and then airports, football, concerts; the list is endless and enough for all to go around.

hTTps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8703133/First-major-post-coronavirus-cruise-departs-Italy-new-strict-safety-restrictions.html

IMO , DYOR, £1bn, SP£15

Interesting that point 8 says:

"Every individual living in containment zones should be tested using rapid antigen testing (RAT) kits, top medical body - the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) - has stressed in its new advisory. "If an individual develops symptoms following a negative RAT (Rapid antigen tests) , an RT-PCR test should be done," reads the nodal body's new advisory."

So they use RT-PCR to verify mass testing positive results.

In the FT Weekend it said:

"The number of new cases reported daily in India is now twice that of the US, with the country poised to overtake Brazil as the nation with the second-highest number of total cases. The government has dramatically stepped up testing, which had been extremely limited but now exceeds 1m tests a day."

This could be a rapidly expanding market for Novacyt, even if only to confirm positive RAT tests, considering potential numbers involved.

Sunday Times: Government still considering airport testing.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/more-coronavirus-tests-considered-to-ease-quarantine-qjl0lxs9x

Interesting that Saga has received considerable exposure in the FT Money section this weekend. An almost full page spread titled 'Investing in Saga: a contrarian voyage' and then a second piece under highlights of the week, Travel and Leisure. I think this may be the turning point in terms of sentiment. Looking at long term graph of Saga SP since the IPO, it looks like a one way staircase - downwards. I've only recently bought in (before Sept 1st) - and hoping I have timed this right for a longer term revival.

Sounds good. We just need UK gov to stop this quarantine fiasco (how do they know how many are actually quarantining anyway? - I suspect many don't really bother, especially if working from home anyway, as long as someone is in) - they will succumb to pressure to replace quarantine lottery with testing sooner or later - hopefully sooner.

Well, I set a limit order to buy more at 146, which was triggered today. I cannot see why this continues to slide when I can find no negative news that was not priced in a long while ago. Housing is looking strong at the moment - so I hope Ibstock has finally found it's bottom. But then I thought that when averaging down to 159!

The government appear to still be stalling with airport decisions. However, you may have noticed Carnival shares saw an uptick today as Costa Cruises have announced resumption in Italy. Looking at the detailed safety protocol, it states testing is part of the boarding plan:

CONTROL AT THE TERMINAL
A quick health screening awaits you at the boarding terminal, which includes body temperature control and a Covid diagnostic test (swab), provided for all the guests.

Clearly, we don't know which swab tests and this is Italy, but the point is, they will need accurate tests and if one liner is doing it then others will follow suit.

I have bet on travel shares as well as Novacyt, as I believe it will be testing and not a vaccine that will get us out of this. And if investing in testing, it has to be the gold standard tests. IMO of course.

DYOR, £1bn company, £15 SP

PS well done Usain - made me smile.

What a rebound - Certainly looks like a V shaped recovery in terms of bricks and concrete sales. This SP still looks a bargain to me. Perhaps the market is just too busy elsewhere to have noticed? I see a major correction coming soon.

There are much better and more accurate tests out there. I'm holder of Novacyt who own Primer Design. They make the gold standard PCR tests. They have a portable device which wild allow 96 tests to be done per hour. Although these tests work out at more than £5 they are 100% accurate and are used to verify other types of test. Considering the cost of a cruise and the impact of having false negatives, it's a no-brainer IMO. Use Primer tests on a daily basis for all passengers and crew. Whatever they do, it won't be long before the Cruise operators work out a safe and reliable system to get ships going again.

Thank you, Freshwest, v helpful.

These are for June; I'll be interested to see how the July and August figures recover, assuming they do. Depending on your perspective, the forecasts don't appear as bad as they could be going into 2021, but that depends on Covid staying in its box:

Key points:
• Output is expected to fall by 24.4% in 2020, due to the impact of Covid-19. It will then grow
by 13.9% in 2021 and 8.6% in 2022 to around the level seen in 2016.
• The worst hit sectors are private and public new housing, which are expected to fall by 35%
and 38% respectively in 2020. However, both are expected to recover by 25% in 2021 and
10% in 2022. Private commercial new work is forecast to fall by 30% in 2020, with growth of
14% in 2021 and 8% in 2022 only taking the sector back to 2013 levels, due in particular to
declines in the retail sector. Private industrial new work is forecast to fall by 16% in 2020,
but growth of 13% in 2021 and 5% in 2022 sees the sector returning to 2019 levels.
• Infrastructure new construction is forecast to fall by 14% in 2020, before recovering with
growth of 7% in 2021 and 15% in 2022. The strongest driver of growth through the period
from 2019 to 2022 is the HS2 project in the rail sector. Public non-housing new work is
expected to fall by 19% in 2020, followed by growth of 1% and 6% in 2021 and 2022
respectively, still below the 2019 level.

Why test for covid 19 and the flu? The obvious answer is that, if you have not got covid, what have you got? For many the flu is equally as fatal and needs treating.

But what we are missing is a second reason, which this board picked up from a US article regarding the shortcomings of a competitor's new test.

Labs have limited capacity for administering tests. If they have to administer flu tests on top of covid tests this causes more of a log jam.

If on the other hand you have a test that tests for both, this will simplify your workflow and reduce the number of tests that need to be carried out. So, big labs will certainly be in favour of Novayct's new Winterplex as opposed to separate covid and flu tests.

No posts for a while - sentiment has changes an SP flying again!

Can anyone explain why this continues to slip - whilst housing is generally seeing positive news? Is there some news I'm missing? Or is it that just that bricks and concrete are seen as boring when other shares, which seem far higher risk, such as cruise liners are on the up.

This is a brilliant move combining 2 gene for France with winter flu. It will improve much needed sentiment here, but please don’t expect this to feed through to sales figures until at least December. They need to make before they can sell, it will need approving by the French, and no one has flu yet. It may help with future orders and tenders, however. Remember this a long-term hold for those who want £1bn company, £15SP; DYOR; GLA

I totally agree. I wasn't saying we would see a recovery to previous price in anyway. Just that price had already dropped a long way to reflect current situation, possibly a bit too far, and we could see a decent bounce on any good news.

Good man. Thought it might be some of yours I was buying. I set limit order at 289 but just looked at order confirmation and paid 281.97 , so someone must have been selling a tranche.

Funny how two people with the same information will make opposite decisions. Some set stop losses in case the price drops too far others will set limit orders waiting for the price to drop to an even better entry point. (And the MMs will match the two.) I've set limit order to buy when price dropped to just below 290. So topped up a little this morning. This great company is such a bargain at this price. Trendz - I hope you are still hanging in there.

Max, I agree this has to be a buy at this price (if only I had some spare funds left) or at least a firm hold. No one has really explained why Carnival price has held and Saga down on the Cunard news, especially as our insurance side should be buoyant.

You're possibly right pappalazz - but this could all already be priced in. Not saying there will be no more downside - but it risks missing out on the upside. Remember the SP was 3 times what it is now at the beginning of the year. Any positive news in terms of quicker/easier testing or vaccine and this will fly and you could be locked out. There is still plenty of demand and booking for cruises, so for me it's a hold.

yes, it wasn't looking that way first thing - so something must have changed. Unless a large buyer was just waiting for good entry price.