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There has been some specualtion since the AGM regarding the US. It is not clear whether GM was saying this was potentially one of our biggest markets or is already one of our biggest. The below is from the Half Year Results 2020 RNS (Sept 17th):

Ref US sales: You have to scroll down a fair way to see a table showing distribution by geographical area. It shows US sales in first half of year at approx. £3.7m. This seems a difficult market to crack and GM talks about reviewing the strategy here: "... it is in the process of evaluating the best model to operate in the US."

And at AGM, GM said only one employee in the US, so I suspect we have not made much traction yet, but that this will be high on the Novacyt agenda.

For discussion what is the quickest way to penetrate the market. OEM? Or has that been tried and failed?

My gut feeling is M&A

GLA, DDYOR, £1bn, SP £15

I think they said they were only reporting H1 and H2 but it would not surprise me to see more come out. Don't forget 17th October is the vesting date for Gm's shares when he needs to see the SP at an all time high - he will be surely holding news back to release in the run up to that date!

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The second RNS was to do with antibody testing in a clinical setting. There has been much discussion of PCR tests possibly being oversensitive and picking up fragments of DNA from past Covid 19 infections. Using Lab 21s antibody test alongside the PCR will be more helpful in eliminating such cases. If you are showing a degree of immunity with this antibody test and are non-sympatric but testing positive on the PCR, it is likely you had Covid 19 in the past rather than the present. So, this test will become increasingly important, as more and more people will have had the virus at some time, but will need to undergo treatment for other ailments and not want to be stopped due to the oversensitive nature of PCR tests used in medical settings.

Remember, this is all in addition to all the fantastic sales already happening. Hence, the current value should already be £1bn and the SP £15, but it will take time to re-rate. Publicity and promotion to institutional investors through our new brokers will see to this. Naturally, some investors (possibly more than expected) will have taken profit yesterday – but much of this will be due to portfolios being overweighed. My personal holding of Novacyt already overweight at just over 50% of portfolio moved to 63% over the last few days due to SP increase, and I was possibly silly not to sell a chunk - always leave some for the next man!
Future value is anyone’s guess and could easily be double the below by the end of year 2021 for long term holders.

GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15

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I'm not sure whether the enormity and long-term value of yesterday's RNS's has truly sunk in for all, especially new investors.

Most have noticed the headline, total £750m figure which is enormous considering our current MCap (and remember this is purely in addition to current contracts for centralised testing), but what will really effect the long term value is the penetration into the NHS with the q16 and q32 machines.

We have an initial order for 300 machines, and then a potential 700 more. This is 1000 machines in potentially 1000 different trusts/hospitals/settings.

The total maximum capacity = 6.25hours x 32wells x 1000machines = 200,000 tests per day = 1m per week!

Now this is a theoretical maximum based on the q32 being used most of the day and you can scale this down as you see fit (or up if you want to use 24/7), but the real long term benefit is the penetration. Each machine in a different setting will have one of the new sales team members to come and demonstrate and regularly check all is working. This allows them to build relationships with hospital staff. What must be understood is that, once they have these machines in the hospital, they can be used for all sorts of PCR tests, not just Covid 19 and the hospital no longer has to send off the tests; they can get results for other tests within the hour too. This is where the longer term sales and value will be.

In addition, we would hope with the newer easier to use tests currently under development, that require even fewer steps and less operator expertise, the q16 / q 32 machines can be rolled out to an ever wider range of settings, starting with care homes then possibly airports and places of work - anywhere where the wait time of between 30 minutes to an hour for an accurate test would be acceptable. Note, costs per test for the user are hugely reduced by not having to send tests to a centralised lab.

GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15

I agree, Compass, it has to shift at some point.

With the end of year results not due until January, we could do with an RNS trading update similar to the one in June, just to let us know where we are considering the extraordinary circumstances. We would then see a bit if a rerate if my thinking is correct.

With the Telegraph magazine this Saturday, I received the new Saga brochure tucked away.

Very compelling: They have two brand new ships, all cabins on both ships have a balcony. Everything is included in the price (which works out at just over £1,500 per week) including all meals, drinks and trips. Saga are even selling cancellation and covid insurance as part of the all inclusive charge (you can opt out rather than opt in). Up to £5m APYOUT, in case you need to be repatriated. All cruises are no-fly and a chauffeur comes and picks you up for free anywhere within 250 miles of Dover or Southampton. Both ships are spacious but comparatively small with a max of 999 passengers.

Never thought of going on a cruise before but quite like the sound if - may because I'm over 50 now!

typo: 200,000 tests per day

Indeed you are totally right Blue light - this is just a fraction of the sales

- and sorry for my poor arithmetic - I said more than double when they have further 700 machines, but of course, they will still have the original 300. So, the NHS will have 1000 machines of the machines in total - more than treble the amount, which will be 20,000 tests per day which need feeding day after day!

GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15

I think you are forgetting the 60,000 tests per day. They have calculated this maximum using the q32

6.25 hours x 32 well x 300 machines = 60,000 PCR tests per day - all from Novacyt, day after day after day until they buy the next 700 machines - when they will be able to more than double the amount sold day after day.

GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15 - sooner than you think!

At full capacity that's up to 22 million tests per year on this alone - plus the machines. But it's the endorsement that counts - if NHS are using why not anywhere else? Plus other countries. This will have a multiplying effect in terms of other sales IMO.

Well done to al that have held for so long.

I bought at £5 for good reason. Then all the way through the 4s and 3s with last biggest purchase at 2.14 - thank you to all those who have supported this throughout and helped fight off the de-rampers.

GLA; DYOR, £15bn, SP £15 (doesn't seem so farfetched now, does it?!)

Just seen this post on the Novacyt discussion page - looks like pressure will build on Gov to make a decision ref airport testing as more and more countries are doing. They have been sitting on this for so long and Rishi did not really come up with much support for air industry either:

"from CNBC.. @whatamess whats your view on this!

Next month, the U.S. will get a glimpse of what traveling during the pandemic could look like in the coming months when United Airlines starts offering rapid Covid-19 tests to its Hawaii-bound passengers in San Francisco, the first major U.S. airline to make the tests available to travelers.

The 15-minute nasal swab tests will be conducted at the international terminal at SFO starting Oct. 15. That’s when Hawaii will start allowing travelers who have had a negative Covid-19 test within the last 72 hours to bypass a two-week quarantine requirement. Travelers will also be able to take an at-home test by Color. Passengers would pay for the tests.

The tests could be used as a blueprint for opening up international travel, where a web of restrictions has devastated demand for those once-lucrative routes. Airlines this week urged governments around the world to consider widespread testing before flights instead of blanket travel bans. —Leslie Josephs"

Good news, indeed - so relieved.

I woke up with a horrible feeling V....... P...... was Vallance Patrick the number of letters fitted- he and Gov. will be in the dog house with his links to GSK:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8766531/Chief-Scientific-Officer-Sir-Patrick-Vallance-600-000-shares-vaccine-maker-GSK.html

This has just been posted by Kilkenny Ted on Novacyt board - I though its would be of interest to investors here too:

https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/ttg-share-price-crashes-iabra-virolens-exposed-no-approvals/

Davee

I have been doing the same as you. This is my third bite at the cherry. You did well do get 842; this must have been on the second dip. I bought at the bottom of the first dip and managed 871. Not sure it will rise as much this time - but I would hardly call it bottom feeding - happy to make 10% in a few days. You could obviously take twice as much by shorting on the slides, but that's not for me atm.

Mr Magic,

At the risk of being accused of cross ramping for Novacyt, you have obviously not heard of one their subsidiaries Primerdesign and their new SARS-CoV-2 Winterplex test:

-For the detection of all strains of Influenza A, Influenza B, RSV and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)
-Highly specific detection profile
-High priming efficiency
-Accurate controls to confirm findings
-Time-saving by completing multiple tests in one go
-One sample needed per patient to test for multiple winter viruses
-inclusive of all global SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A, Influenza B and RSV strains
-Kit includes Lyophilised qPCR Master Mix for ambient NO cold chain shipping

I'm not sure whether it is just my platform, but the spread seemed huge at times today with bid below 12 and ask at 16. So whilst the mid figure comes down you can't actually buy at anywhere near 12p - the MMs, indeed, seem to be keeping thi sup.

With regard to strategy talked about below, I do think there will be a difference under de Haan.

He is clearly wanting to aim at much older clientele. Before, they were forgetting ever younger audience (i.e. 50 year-olds). There is little difference in the product if you go that young.

De Haan talks about counting the number of steps in a hotel - this level of detail is important for older people and they are willing to pay for the peace of mind.

So, we could see a change of emphasis that could revive Saga. For a long period the company has been lead ( or should I say bled?) by a US equity company.

I would, therefore, be inclined to be more positive ; yes - there is a case of survival first, but that is the whole point of this cash raise and De Haan's investment.

Thank you, Nova. This is good news . They will have to buy back at some point.

I have tried to research short positions for Novacyt but cannot find them on any register. Does this mean Voleon and Airain already closed at the end of last week?

Ditto, taken all mine up too - let's hope this is the bottom and it continues up from now on.

Price of oil ticking up nicely!