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I've said before that the majority in the market do not know as much about Novacyt, and testing generally, as this board does. That's why, as PIs, we have got in early for a change and are making more than the Institutional Investors have so far (The Zulu Principle in action).

It was interesting to listen to the today programme and their interviews of so called experts this morning. Firstly Sam Managhan, the CEO of MHA, one of the largest care home providers. He was intelligent enough to say that routine testing was the key to enabling family members to visit loved ones in care home settings, but when he was asked about trials - he drew a blank saying that he thought they were planned to start at the end of November! Later Lord Buckland was interviewed, he too clearly had not idea. I shall be writing to Radio 4 to inform Martha Kearney (who must already have an inkling otherwise why ask abut trials?) of the Queen Mary trials and that she should possibly interview someone more enlightened such as Professor Jo Martin - she should ask her about Primer Design's point of care testing capabilities.

As informed PIs on this board - we are at times too far ahead of the curve and, hence, more patience is required than normal, but better in a little too early than too late. Black Rock is a little late to the party but they are ahead of the curve with respect to other institutionals - in their eyes this has only just begun and there is plenty more upside to come.

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - will be just the end of the beginning

Dear Airline Boy

First of all, please may I offer my condolences - it must have been such a shock, especially when your friend was such a healthy man. His family, too must be devastated; truly sorry.

With respect you your comment: "I love the fact that this is a friendly and inclusive chat board, I have made friends here and I love the differing styles of posters". Here, here! The diversity is what makes the board so special and stronger (the sum is greater than the parts) - some offer fantastic research, other analysis or investment/trading know-how and others still are here for support or simply for their positivity (I think you all know who I mean!).

I am looking forward to the SP £15 Zoom party - it won't be long now. It will be great to put a few faces to names - although we have already seen ('cute') Kaeren! Maybe when it reaches £30 some of us can meet in the flesh as lockdown may be over before then - but it may need to be regional meetings as the geography of the group seems disparate!

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - now things have stabilised we are ready to the move up

This paragraph from Gasman is from the Gov website link that Deas has posted below.

This is the first time that I have seen the UK Government mention Primer Design by name - next will be WinterPlex

Hopefully, this will change the sentiment. Just think this share has been overlooked as a solid value stock. The CFO clearly sees the potential. Only a matter of time. Todays downturn was completely unwarranted IMO and I agree with Newby - this will bounce back - patience needed, it may not be this week.

I agree too, Exmex - well done.

this shows three things :

we are selling privately, not just government contracts
we are selling to sport and it is deemed sufficiently mobile - if it is good for cyclists then it will be ok for many other sports, with huge potential
we are penetrating overseas markets despite not having direct sales teams abroad

every little helps to build the big picture - thank you

The subject of a possible takeover is not new to this board but this article reaffirms the PI conversation last week, that an approach (hostile or otherwise) from one of the big four or five is both plausible and likely in the the near future. The longer they wait, the more expensive it becomes, so it would not be good to be out of this share for any protracted period.

However, the line that I've seen before, and which has again caught my eye, was from Ptimans:

“Client relationships are built on understanding their objectives and ambitions, and we’re delighted to be part of Novacyt’s growth story.”

Of course they are delighted to be part of this - especially when they know that Novacyt's ambitions are for more M&A activity. IT-IS was just the start. Remember, GM said more substantial M&A to come first quarter 2021.

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 Nov. 17th 2020

Yes , they are back to 90% of pre-covid levels and expecting end of year earnings to reach £50m - rather than dividends they want to deleverage and bring down debt slightly. Not sure why this has dropped on this news - what was the market expecting?

VanV - I take my hat off to you; a well articulated post, which hit the nail on the head. Carpe diem, Novacyt!

Buy Too High, I agree with you entirely regarding the scaling up of manufacturing. They have put a multimillion pound (I think it was £1.9m) incentive to the current management with regard to an increase in output of these two Q devices.

But what I was saying to Bramley was that we cannot simply ship these abroad to other hospitals. They need sales support to ensure they are fully utilised. This is being set up in UK but it will be more difficult to expand this service quickly to other countries. The solution, however, may come in terms of the new easier to use PCR tests currently under development that will be used in these machines. They will not require a trained technician to pre-process them before putting them into the machines. So the dots will be joined, the new product (easy to use test) will come and we can then look at shipping Q16 and Q32 overseas and to other non-hospital establishment (e.g. care homes) in the UK

Bramley, Sir -I think you are spot on. With regard to the application and potential market of these machines the possibilities are endless and, especially in the case of hospitals, will be enduring.

My only reservation about international sales is this: In the UK, Novacyt are building an army of reps/specialist who are able to go into hospitals and support. I assume they will at first train the hospital personnel and then periodically visit to ensure the machines are being used effectively. They will, in time, then look at using these visits to explain other tests that can be used on the machines and expand their repertoire of sales to a more sustainable model that will set the company up well into the future.

So my reservation is that it will not be so easy to scale this support at an international level. Nor will it be so easy to use in establishments that are not equipped with the correct facilities or trained ancillary staff. This may be the reason why we have not heard anything on the care home front. The solution is the new simpler to use product and this is taking time to develop.

I suspect the wider roll-out will be dependent on this new product. So for those who are in early and happy to wait...

We get so used to following this share on a daily basis and looking at the price minute by minute that we often forget to take a wider look. If one looks at the graph going back a whole month, one can see that it is pretty much a straight-line rise. Whenever the share has got a bit ahead of itself, it has then corrected itself back to this line.

The SP on September 28th was 467p and October 22nd was 944p. Drawing a straight line between the two points gives and average daily rise (including weekends) of approximately 21.5p per day.

Using this as basis to calculate a sustainable increase, we should close today at 1041p, if we were back on the line by close of play that is.

Other points to note would be that it would take another 459p to get us to £15 and at this rate it would take 21 days, so book your £15-Zoom meetings into your diaries for 17th November and we may want to revise our Christmas Eve forecasts (which is in 58 days x 21.5p + current price 1041) to £22.88!

Keep the faith and join the dots… GLA, £1bn, SP 15 on Nov 17th.

I know the fundamentals are strong and this share has so much further to run, but this morning I rose extra early with the view to top slicing some of my shares, as just like some investment funds, I have become serious overweight (>75%) due to its meteoric rise. I thought the timing was about right too, as we have seen several days of strong growth and things were getting a little overheated. In addition, the weekend had seen a lot of vaccine news which I though would add to negative sentiment, so all in all I thought a degree of retrace was inevitable this week if not today.

But I just could not do it!

– Instead, I drove my wife and hour up the road to Cley-next-to-sea on the North Norfolk coast for a long walk. After consuming some very fresh oysters in Blakeney harbour, we saw a huge rain cloud coming, but continued our walk and got absolutely soaked through – a double deluge for the day.

You may say we were foolhardy on both counts – but we enjoyed the fresh air and although I could have saved thousands, another time I may miss out due to news dropping after the sell – well done to those who made some £££.

We are back home and have already dried by the fire. The share too will soon be back to where it was and beyond. I recently said the share was not for trading – so despite the large losses on the day, I’m glad I stuck to my guns. The teething issues talked about below will soon be sorted with the new simpler to use tests, and I feel certain news on the Winterplex and a possible German order is also being hidden until ready. With so much in the pipeline, so much cash in the bank and no one really knowing what news is coming next, be it another purchase/acquisition, another R&D development, a new product or another large contract, it is best to just sit tight.

Join the dots…, GLA, £1bn, SP 15 - still well and truly on the cards before we know it.

I don't think we will be given any Q3 results; there may be other positive news that takes SP above £15, but then we will see a small pullback as PIs take profit before the Christmas break.

So I will stick with £1bn pound prediction by Christmas with approx. 71m shares in circulation this gives:

£14.08

I then think the big rise will be in January, once preliminary H2 results are out and orders for roll-out of NHS phase two contract is confirmed - when it will rapidly head North in multiples of this price. We will also have major M&A activity in first quarter of 2021. I could be wrong and news could come sooner, so I would not want to be out at any point between now and then. This is not a share to be traded - all in and stay in. Keep your golden tickets.

Join the dots... GLA, DYOR, $1bn, SP £15 - before Christmas but then slight pull back to £14.08 on Christmas eve!

Interesting that these two fund managers read this board. One said there was more information on this board than in the research notes, which he described as being tardy. I wonder whether he contributes and if so what his hhandle is. By a process of elimanation it wasn't anyone posting during the live chat which started at 1:00 p.m. !

Pete - wrong title

Should say this ships is sailing and picking up at all ports: £15, £20, £25, £40 until we merge with AZN and get £80 a share.

You can board when and where you like!

Soon in hospitals up and down the country (and possibly some large GP surgeries), they'll be saying:

"Gone are the days when we had to send off tests prior to an operation or on admission and wait 24 to 48hrs for the results to get back. Most of our tests are done in house now and are back within the hour."

Indeed, Van

Looks like a small amount of profit taking along the way , but I think we have lost most of those were wanting to sell around this price, so next stop £15

Join the dots... GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - in the blink of an eye!

Goen are the

@ Shaun - he does not specify. Clearly, not for Winterplex but assume for rPCR. Not sure why US$ quoted - but he said don't worry what they say on the bbs, this is from the horses mouth, it's $10 per test.

The event has been recorded and will be available tomorrow.

"If I'm wrong I'll make money - if I'm right I'll make an extreme amount of money!"

" Novacyt won't have a chance to move to main market - they'll be bought"