Member Info for HillSeeker

@dDonnodertrader

but they have already told us - that they are developing new products on top of the Winterplex, 2 gene test etc. and plan more M&A activity - they could argue this is not news this is what the company does! They would say that when could they buy shares if they had to wait for a time when they weren't just about to announce a new product or M&A activity.

But something big is definitely brewing and got to come out - how else is this share going to make its target price of £15by next Tuesday?

Keep the faith and join the dots... GLA, DYOR, £1bn, £15 Tuesday 17th

Matt Hand**** on Question Time this evening just confirmed that, as the vaccine is rolled out, there is no guarantee that those vaccinated will not continue to be infectious. He said monitoring (i.e continued testing) would, therefore, be required throughout this process.

yes - either it's something we don't yet know about which may be very positive for us and would also explain why they are dragging this trail out so long - or it's just lazy journalism and they mean tests rather than machines, but that would be poor for the BBC

My apologies, Hartlebury, having a senior moment - of course, you are right 90 minutes for one test - quite pathetic really

and Troublesome, average sensitivity – compared against numerous NHS lab-based tests – is around 95% and specificity around 100%.

but clearly at 15 minutes may be a LFT test? - but surprised if non-PCR is being used in a care home setting!

@ troublesome

1 test, 15 minutes = DnaNudge

EXMEX and B2HS2L - than you both for your replies regarding the Open Cell containers.

I have delved more deeply and it looks like they are not specifying the machines used nor the PCR testing (i.e. you can chose your own). They have a range of machines that can be used in the container and list a number of PCR tests including Primer Design.

The research paper compared three PCR tests (not ours):
"Mix A is the qPCRBIO Probe 1-Step Go (PCR Biosystems), Mix B is the One-Step RT-qPCR mix (Aptogen) and Mix C AgPath-ID™ One-Step (ThermoFisher)."

Last night, I poste that once container could do possibly up to 3,600 tests per day when in fact they state maximum capacity of 2,400 tests per day:
"With five OT2 liquid handlers, a single CONTAIN unit reaches a maximum daily testing capacity of 2400 tests/day."

So, in essence, whilst an Open Cell container can handle up to 2,400 of our tests per day, we should not immediately assume it is our tests they are using. That will be a decision for whoever is hiring the container.

I hope this clarifies the situation regarding Open Cell as I would not want to mislead.

PS - I wasn't sure how we were going to get to SP of £15 by next Tuesday, but if today and yesterday are anything to go by, the trajectory is there!

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - 17th November - really?

@Wilson

I don't ever remember seeing a Q16 or Q32 in an OpenCell lab, but it may have been a picture from a tweet about Wren - that rings more of a bell, but could be wrong.

I was watching the Open Cell video - TheOriginalNova posted the link earlier today, thank you, here it is if you missed it:

https://youtu.be/TEjNyhKlRD0

I believe they are using Primer Design's PCR tests but someone else's machines. The throughput states "100 test per 40 minutes running in parallel" - so I'm not sure quite what they mean by that. Perhaps they mean running more than one machine simultaneously, the average equates to 100 tests every forty minutes, although the tests may actually take longer than 40 minutes to complete. Either way, in an 8 hour shift they will use up to 1,200 of our tests; and at max capacity of running 24/7 one Open Cell unit could use up to 3,600 test per day - this equates to just over £30k revenue per day or close to £1m a month at top whack!

So, yes, let's see a few of these dotted all over Europe not just Paris!

If I had to guess, it would be to to with international markets and possibly the US being the key here. GM clearly stated there was substantial future growth of the diagnostics market in this direction. We only have direct sales/marketing in the UK so we need to rapidly expand this network.

The other thing I meant to mention was our rocket's guidance system. Numis and SP Angel are guiding the rocket to between about £13 and well over £30, but once in outer orbit we will need ODDO to help take us to the moon!

@ShaunP

I like your post:

"We should note that the engines powering the lift off into "Outer Novacytia", stardom
are
1) Original Covid-19
2) Exsig Direct
3) Exsig Mag
4) Covid-HT
5) Two Gene Test Kit
6) Winterplex (2 genes)
7) Antibody Test
8) q16 instrument
9) q32 instrument"

The nine points you list are the ones already propelling or Novayct rocket in terms of constant cash generation - but should we add to the list what our GM is putting into the rocket's fuel tank?

From Half Year Results RNS ref strategy:

• Selective product/technology and company acquisitions to generate additional revenues and profits to offset potential future reductions in COVID-19 revenues and enhance the Group's trajectory towards becoming a market leader in respiratory and transplant clinical diagnostics
• Acquisition of specific assets to enable Novacyt to expand its core capabilities whilst maintaining attractive margins

We have bought IT-IS this quarter, but at the AGM, Graham intimated a second much larger piece of M&A activity for Q1 of 2021 - I'm sure this will be an equally brilliant move. He will be working on it now for it to complete by then.

If today's SP rise continues into next week, we won't be far of our £15 target price scheduled for next Tuesday!

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15

Oh dear!

@Kaeren

You said you were starting in the vodka last night - I think I would rather be on the single malt if I were in your area- but anyway, hoping you were not feeling too jaded today.

If you were a tad hungover, it will have been nothing like what the real vaccine feels like, but good practice nevertheless :)

Well we can always chat on Zoom (I've heard that's become cheap too) especially as it's only a week until the SP should be at £15 when we were due to have our Zoom party!

Seriously, I totally agree with Bramley here. The fundamentals have not changed and the UK Government is looking to spend as much on research and testing as they do on the defence of this country! I don't think we have yet grasped the enormity of it; and we are at the forefront and in bed with the UK Government. They don't ever want to be caught out again. IMO we will be seeing at least one of our machines, if not many more, in every hospital in the country as soon as they can roll them out.

Han**** said today that all NHS staff are to be tested twice weekly:

"And he announced that, from Tuesday, NHS staff will begin being tested twice a week."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54882091

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - was meant to be 17th November (next Tuesday) but my wife doesn't believe me!

...there is no more bad news!

as all long LTH knew, once the first vaccine came out (unfortunately, I was away form may terminal when Blue light gave us the nod this morning - Good for you Blue Light, finger on the pulse) the SP would take a temporary hit. That's the market taking advantage and they would have had this all planned for the moment the vaccine news dropped, hence the speed of the drop.
But now that's done what can hit us next? - just good news with respect to the share price I'm afraid. Take your pick from:

-Vaccine not as good as thought <90% (certainly not going to be more effective and it may effect different groups in different ways)
-Too difficult to store and transport (-80c)
-Side effects wide ranging
-Certain mutations not covered by the vaccine
-People reluctant to take the vaccine
-Insufficient supplies
-Widescale accurate testing required to monitor vaccine efficacy
-Primerdesign shows its PCR tests are valid on mink mutations/strains
-Phase 2 order for Q16 and Q 32 confirmed (and possibly earlier than expected)
-Update on sale of Q16 and Q32 globally
-Update on qPCR sales globally
-Update on US OEM
-Update on Winterplex sales
-Update on 2 Gene PCR in France and/or India sales
-Purchase or M&A of non-Covid company

This list is not exhaustive - please feel free to add to the list

But the point is, the downside is now removed, with just positive news to come, we will have bottomed out this week and Institutional Investors will start piling in. I suspect there has already been a big transfer today from PI to II.

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - 17th November (give or take a few days!)

Sorry Exmex - it looks like I was writing as you posted and you say similar to me regarding the extension of the initial contract. I didn't mean to double up, but it's good that we concur.

I know this has been done to death, but I'm not sure we have this right.

My interpretation of the RNS and tender figures is as follows:

£150m guaranteed until just after Xmas (300 machines plus supplies)
£100m following this until about mid/end of March but this element could be increased or decreased depending on demand (just additional supplies for the above, no more machines)

So the above is just for the Q16 and Q32 in hospitals and the supplies for these machines.

But before this order, we were already supplying UK Gov with tests (I'm not referring to HT supplies for the Lighthouse Labs as these go through the AZN tender, but supplies for other PHE testing facilities). The £63m has been fulfilled/expired so this is where the £406m comes in. If not all of it then the difference between the above (i.e. at least 406m-150m=156m, but could be 406m-150m=256m but could could even be as high as 406m in addition to the above 250m)

Then we have phase 2 - this has not been quantified - just that it would be significantly more than phase 1 - would suggest at least 500m as it is more than double the number of machines. The timing of this is not clear either. I doubt they would wait until the end of March but PHE would want to see how effective the first batch is.

Of course, I could be wrong too, and only time will tell, but surely we are supplying more than just the new contract for the Q machines and their supplies; the previous supplies will have been maintained and, more than likely, stepped up.

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - my prediction of Nov 17th 2020 is getting closer!

This could be the news we're looking for!

This could be the news we're looking for!

The move to SETS trading is meant to stabilise the price a little and guess what? - the price has stabilised. We are at £10 and sticking there. But it looks like some of the board are so used to the volatility, they are missing it!

Of course, it will move once news comes - patience is a virtue, not just a saying

Join the dots... and keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 soon - but patience required

Thanks, troublesome - what I can't understand is why people in the industry don't even know about the trials? I have just written to radio 4 - this needs more publicity to put pressure on the right decision being made. It will always come down to cost and UK Gov seems to be keeping this all too quiet.