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@Gazman
you did well to get 814 - let's hope that's the last time we see that price, but fear if could be bouncing a long a little longer at this level before it moves, but who knows- It could break at any time; that's what makes it so exciting, I suppose!

@ Rebs 438
Probably because this has been discussed already last night. I think we all agree that there is a bedrock of support that goes back to early December at just over 800 (815-825) with ii hovering up anything that PI will give them. Once there are no more flaky PIs willing to give up their shares then will start to move, unless news of contracts, further R&D/product progress, or M&G comes first, then it will rocket.

I said bought last night at 8:25 - I'd be interested to hear if anyone has been able to beat this as a buy price, despite the mid-price showing as dropping below this level.

Definitely is, pappalazz. But we're all here just watching and waiting.

I don't think Sunak is going to extend the stamp duty holiday but, hopefully, he will be making announcements in due course regarding infrastructure projects to kick start the economy once we are out of this lockdown.

This is probably one of my safest recovery bets - not expecting a multi-bagger here, but 25% to 50% would be nice

GLA

agree - but we're all here just watching and waiting, seems to be slowly inching up as confidence returns

This is probably one of my safest bets - not looking for a multi-bagger here, but 25% to 50% would be nice

Hopefully, Sunak will make some announcements ref infrastructure projects in due course to kick start (I don think we're going to get an extension to stamp duty holiday) that may take us toward the upper end of my expected range.

@Darton

I agree and also calculated this as the bottom. I had placed small limit order to buy at 8.25 with some funds that had become available, it triggered on today's close. (My first top up since 2.18, as I've been carrying an already very heavy load all this time, but could resist taking a few more on at this heavily discounted level.)

I think the ii have all set their orders at around, or just below, this value so will be surprised if it breaks through this barrier. They keep sweeping up anyone selling at this level. I think they are there in increasing numbers, so there will be ever more pressure for shares, but then again it's down to the age old supply and demand. The more impatient PIs that sell up, the lower it will go. Only once they have all been shaken out will it go in the other direction, unless big news drops, then the crowds will come flocking again. Either way, the ii will want increasingly more shares as time goes on and at some point they will be in the majority and need to start paying full whack.

Thanks Routy

Yes for 2022 read 2021 - I'm getting ahead of myself

@triumph
It is not possible to know exactly (and I agree far more information could be given - but let us not go over that well-trodden ground), but we can make some reasonable assumptions and deductions.

Note, I said £213 for H2 (not £277 for the whole year). We are now in February 2022 and the extension to phase 1 is still being negotiated. (SP Angle may have been given more clarity on this, as they infer the negotiations are for the extension to phase 1 and not Phase 2). So, we have not finished negotiating the extension let alone started its implementation. So, we must still be in the first part of phase 1 – i.e., well behind schedule. The first part was £150m so, I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume only £100m invoiced in 2021. This leaves, as I say below, £113 for other sales. Yes, an element of guess work here and investors can have their own opinions as to what portion from between £150 to zero – I think £100 is reasonable guess.

But the point I am making, which seems counterintuitive, is that the less spent on NHS in 2020 the better in the long term - as it means more to come form both DHSC and other sales in 2022. And I think a slowly increasing proportion of us are in for the long term!

Two reasons:

1. Gutted by the delay of NHS role out, but did we not get snippets that something was up? And if we did not get the money in 2020 it is still to come. Promate is now being rolled out and it is only a matter if time, and skilful negation of terms, as to when the extension and phase two is to come along. But I cannot see the NHS going backward – they would not have gone to all the trouble of working with Novacyt to produce a new product only to have this pulled on them. [This model of embedding POC testing in the health service in my view is the key to the longevity of the company and, if successful, may also be replicated in other countries.]

2. If the £213m income in H2 of 2020 was not from the NHS, it must have been from somewhere else. And this is what is not being talked about enough. Here is our silver lining. Yes, part of this £213 will be from the NHS but I would say a maximum of £100m, so this means over £100m is from private, national and international sales. The direct sales work force has multiplied manyfold during this period, so what should we be expecting in 2022 with a further increase in sales (especially US). Plus, we then have to add in the rest of NHS phase 1, plus the extension, plus phase 2 (up to 700 machines and supplies, which could be more than double the £250m of phase 1 – yes a further £500 m on top of all this), all in 2022!

That’s why I am more confident this week than last week.

And then, once the operational update comes with news developments of further products and other strategic manoeuvres this will truly shift – not if but when. I do not think Porky’s expectations on SP are too high – it is just that he needs to be clear that these are medium and long term rather than immediate. This should be between £12 and £15 as things stand, with a rerate on any of the above news breaking out. Some serious dots being joined. All in my own opinion, of course, DYOR.

GLA, join the dots… and keep the faith, £1bn mCap, SP £15 when, not if.

Part 1 of 2

Some very interesting posts this evening sharing much of the frustration of the BB. I can see both sides of the argument. Expectations may have been raised too high prior to the results and the Reddit type brigade sold on mass (great analysis Dartron) when these did not materialise. But, equally, the sell-off has gone far further than possibly imagined and the current SP seems hugely undervalued.

IMO value will always win out in the long term. Yes, it is very tempting to see rises elsewhere and think of selling then coming back in later to catch the next rise, but I believe this would be an incredibly dangerous strategy. We’ve all seen how fast this stock can rise. I had the feeling that the results were delayed as long as they possibly could, pending news on an agreement with the DHSC extension, but clearly this did not come in time. Possibly a good thing, as this means Novacyt can now properly negotiate without the added time pressure. An RNS can then come out with this news and, hopefully, and operational update.

An interesting side argument seems to be running whether this is more painful to LTH than those more recently invested. Those in early, may have more invested as it has grown so much, but in that case their loss will also be greater, but having sat through months of decline from £5 to just over £2 - it seemed like an eternity, you could argue we have done it before, so we are more confident that the rise will eventually come, and when it does…

Despite being severely down since a week ago today, I am possibly even more optimistic than I was before. This is due to something Kaeren and a few other posters have been touching on. The money due for the DHSC contract has not materialised in 2020. This should be seen as positive. Why?

see part 2

Looks like some have made their decisions before open. We will loose the day trippers today and those who get blisters after walking 500 yards.

This has always been a long-term hold; you cannot make a mid-cap market leader overnight. We are well on the path and whilst we may hit rocky patches the trajectory is strongly upward. Clearly, Novacyt were hoping to announce other news alongside this TU today, but this will come. Those staying the distance will be rewarded. As others have intimated, the DHSC contract is being worked on - Pro-mate has been tested and has been given the thumbs up and with a huge new sales team in place we will continue to see strong orders into the new year and beyond. New products are continuously being added to what is already a huge portfolio, a one-stop-shop for diagnostics and near patient testing. No t just in the NHS, but in companies around the world who wan to look after their work force and check their health - this is the future.

If this is not blue by the end of the day, it certainly will be by next week. Without the slower walkers we will make faster progress, it's good to leave them behind. Fast fitter investor will join us.

GLA, Keep the faith and join the dots... £1bn. , SP £15 pretty much certain now!

You are an explorer and have been on a long journey up a rugged, winding and undulating, path towards the top of what you have heard is a huge, undiscovered mountain. It is far further than you first thought, you have been going since March or was it February? You really can’t remember; it seems so long now. You only have your trusted ShaunP map to guide you.

After making some excellent progress and covering near vertical terrain, the ground suddenly drops away from you, you fall suddenly sliding down some steep, shale slopes, before bouncing hard. Picking yourself up and dusting off the pfizer dust, you regain your footing. Continuing in the same direction you are now beginning to fill with self-doubt. Have you chosen the right path? Should you stop? However, after some long trudging, you steadily begin to climb more steeply again, appearing to regain most of the lost height. Visibility is poor, however, and the path is still not clear, but you continue in what you think is the right direction. Some time ago, you met a prophet called Numis, you recall he was vague “the path may split in many ways, some leading up gradually and others taking you to much steeper climbs”. And one night, an Angel descended whispering gently of the delights to come but by morning you weren’t sure if it was just a dream.

Suddenly, following what seems an age of walking, the fog clears, and you can see exactly where you are. You have made much more ground than you had originally thought. The going has been good and, thanks to the lord GM, there’s a sign clearly showing the immediate route ahead. In the distance though, is more cloud which could be obscuring hidden dips, but beyond that you can see the mountain peak towering high above. It is as huge as told, massive, towering above the cloud. But the exact height through the haze is difficult to determine with the instruments you have and there could be unknown dangers ahead.

You have a decision to make.

Do you stop now, simply enjoy the scenery and be pleased with your luck so far, or do you keep the faith and continue on your journey to manifold the height of where you now stand, with views more spectacular than can be imagined?

GLA, keep the faith and join the dots, £1bn, SP 15* next week?

[ * or stay the full distance for a doubling of this figure (Spring?), and then doubling again (HY results?), and possibly again even (2021 FY) – yes, IMO it could go to beyond Porky’s long-term SP! ]

It's been a wonderful week and I'm delighted by the more exuberant feel to the board.

Well-done all long term holders. The longer you stay the distance the greater the reward. [I think "time in the market, not timing the market" is the original mantra.]

Just to add a snippet of information regarding trademarks, for those interested in the legal minutiae, it is quite possible to have two companies owning the same trade marked name - so long as the product sector is different. A classic and extremely recent example is the case of Bentley Motors and Bentley Clothing.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/01/bentley-motors-loses-trademark-battle-over-branded-clothing

Would one believe that Bentley Cars has been ordered to destroy all its merchandised clothing? [I'm left wondering who will buy out whom in these strange times - clothes are making more money than old motors, so long as you are able to buy them online, of course!]

GLA, Keep the faith and join the dots... £1bn company, SP £15 - possibly on announcement of results if not earlier on breaking news!

(Any typos - please blame the Weston's Cider)

I don't think many invested here want a dividend.

We're invested for growth - double the company and then double again - and again...

Join the dots...

@Buy2High - Thank you for reposting the link.

Very interesting to reread this article after all the editing that was forced on the Independent . If one scrolls all the way to the bottom, there is a note saying that the article title has been changed from roll-out 'halted' to roll-out 'paused '.

From this I would deduce that there may indeed have been some initial teething problems, which could have slowed the program but the contract is being completed nevertheless . So all good in the end but may be behind schedule.

@ pappalazz - well done and good luck- that sounds more promising!

Zoom out of your charts to look at the 1 month or 3 month view. The SP has actually stabilised nicely following the huge volatility before SETS. But there is still enough of a rise and fall for those interested in short term gains.

If I were trading this stock, I would be looking at a buy price of 820 and sell at 880 (just under 10 Euros)- you could have made 60p three times on each share in the last month or so and double that if you shorted each time on the way down too (so £3.60 in total - but that's with hind site).

My guess is this will be the last time we see near 820. If it manages to get down that far this time, it will bounce hard and not return to these level again once it's broken the 10 Euro mark and FOMO kicks in before results. With only two or three weeks left this price level may be the trigger for our launch.

Keep the faith, join the dots... and don't loose out! £1bn, SP £15 yet another day closer (this is not a target, but a stepping stone)

it mi

Some heated debate this afternoon. Discussion is always good but it is important to be civil. Kaeren and a HarChris are both regular posters who make valuable contributions and don't deserve such vitriol.

I cannot understand some of the comments that suggest the route to midcap is through better PR. Yes, you may get investors to buy Novacyt shares in the short term (institutional or private), but once results are out they will soon evaporate if they are not up to scratch and you'll be back to where you were. Conversely, if the results are better than the PR suggests, it won't take long to for investors to take notice and buy in. Fundamentals will always win out. So, IMO, the only way to midcap is to secure sales and build infrastructure for growth and sustainability, including M&A activity as well as organic growth and continued R&D, as set out in the strategy document.

I also agree that Mullis is not having his arm twisted. He has experience of M&A, and let's not forget, he has already made one strategically critical purchase this year on very good terms (remember how much he paid and how much they had in the bank!). He is keen to strengthen his team in order to meet his objectives and I don't doubt there may be more of this to come.

IMO, the company is wise not to continuously boast about profits in the circumstances and did they not recently win a prize for highest growth share? The focus for GM will be growing the company as fast as he can whilst the opportunity allows . The investors will look after themselves to a certain extent. As other poster have said, there is no need to raise capital, and they will generally follow the money anyway. Plus, as others have also said, some PI are fickle. There is an advantage to the company in PIs in that that they wield less power than one or two very large investors, but can one imagine what a distraction it must have been to the company in the days prior to the AGM when they had to gather votes from at least 25% of investors. We had 25,000 individuals invested at the time! Having a few impatient PIs leave and transfer shares to a few bigger investors will make things far easier next year if 25% plus is owned by a few larger entities, and from yesterday's updated figures it appears that we are nearing that figure now.

So, my post from yesterday still stands and it is simply a waiting game. We have the easy par of sitting on our hands whilst the company quietly gets on with its business and goes from strength to strength.

Keep the faith, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 a day closer (but not the end game).

Good evening all - some very strange postings today. I think this is partly triggered by some stocks doing well whilst Novacyt drifts a little.

I sold Games Workshop to buy Novacyt - after all they had double in price and at the time the GW SP had reached near to pre-Covid levels. Games Workshop have more than doubled again since I sold!

Similarly, I sold ASOS as they had also nearly doubled (you don't want to be too greedy and no one has made a loss taking a profit), and again they have more than doubled since.

Am I upset. No. You can only hold one stock at time with the same money and I saw greater gains elsewhere - here! I had bought Novacyt.

I hadn't timed it quite right at the time with my first significant purchase at £5 (but like those buying more recently at £12, I knew it was still undervalued and had great potential to go a lot further); it more than halved. But on the way down, I was so convinced, that I just kept buying more and more, and when the CEO bought more at just over £3 I bought even more and when it went below £3 I bought some more, and then all the way through the £2s until I had little left to throw at it. Selling at £12 would have made a nice profit (and so would selling now come to think of it), but I'm holding out for a further doubling, first to £15 and then doubling again and possibly doubling again. I don't know when it will double, bit I know it will. It could be 6 months or a year and then another 6 months or another year, or even two, before it doubles again. But I have plenty of other things to do while I'm waiting, and once its done, fully matured and has properly secured it's position as a leading mid cap diagnostics company, I will never have to work again.

This does not mean one should be complacent, far from it. Of course, things can always change and come at the company left field, so I check the board (to whom I am eternally grateful for their research and support) on a daily basis for any new snippets and I feed in if I feel I have anything relevant or of value to add, such as now. But, do I worry about daily SP fluctuations? - clearly not. That's what we mean by keeping the faith - and joining the dots is about seeing the bigger picture and the long game.

Keep the faith and join dots..., GLA, £15 will be the next doubling, but far more to come for the truly patient

@pappalazz

it's taken me moths to transfer from an old ISA FTSE tracker I had with Halifax (now owned by HBOS) to my Barclays Smart Investor ISA. As you say, just a simple form to fill in, but I too was making no progress. I put in a formal complaint (no paperwork - just phoned and said I wanted to make a formal complaint about the delay) and Barclays upheld my complaint - they put £250 in my account and sent me a hamper! Now their top customer service guy is ensuring it goes through smoothly. If they hadn't acted, the ombudsman would have been on their case.

PS - I think this share is a slow and steady burn. Looking forward to end of year results for the next leg up.

Good luck all

...sorry and HarChris, also very good posts, thank you