Member Info for HillSeeker

Exmex/Bluelight - agree it's difficult to see how many BR are holding as they spread over several different funds. Have not seen Vatel listed anywhere though - perhaps they are already clear, as you say Bluelight, but I didn't see them listed before in March/April either - all very opaque. Ref the MM's manipulation - what do they care where the price is? - so long as they have a huge spread on the price; they can't be happy with current volumes. It's an enigma, not seen such activity before. Still can't see this being held back much longer once certainty returns, the fog lifts and the future pathway is signposted for us by GM.

You may be right, Bluelight , but then again, they weren't to know any more than we were that the SP would be heading South for such a protracted period.

I'm just trying to find any explanation as to why there would be continued downward pressure at these low levels. I keep thinking we've hit the turning point and those sitting on the sidelines are just about to pile in and then we have more selling tiday. If it's not Vatel, it can only be a trickle of PIs who are either board or simply weren't intending to be invested so long and need the money.

Who else would sell at under 350? It's just a crazy thing to do when we have so much in the pipeline that can propell this at any point to prices many multiples of today's close.

GLA - convinced its going to happen v soon. Rocket imoji.

Since the end of March, Vatel have had the option to sell just over a million shares. They did this with the initial option to sell last year, which kept the SP at below material value for a protracted period.

Considering they paid the equivalent of 70p for the shares, they might consider the current price good value and will be wanting to de-risk. They will, afterall, have another million shares to sell next year when the SP is expected to be significantly higher.

If this is the case, it would explain why the SP is staying so stubbornly low despite the the short positions slowly closing. WIth the low volumes we are currently experiencing, trying to trickle sell over a million shares is bound to have a significantly depressing effect on the SP. The silver lining would be that, once done, the SP will respond sharply as it did last year.

As it represents only just over 1% of total holdings, they could well be doing this under the radar. I would be interested if any bb members have opinions on this or could shed further light on the matter with any hard evidence of Vatel's current holdings.

"Vatel has exercised its right to request conversion of all outstanding debt into new ordinary shares of €1/15 each in the Company (“Ordinary Shares”) at a fixed conversion price of €0.70 per Ordinary Share. Therefore, the remaining debt of €2,066,257 has been converted into 2,952,681 Ordinary Shares. No future or accrued interest is payable as a result of this conversion.

Vatel has agreed to a lock-in period for a certain number of the Ordinary Shares, whereby 1,107,255 Ordinary Shares will not be sold or transferred before 31 December 2021, and a further 1,033,438 Ordinary Shares will not be sold or transferred before 31 March 2021. The remaining 811,988 shares have no such restrictions."

PS @ Saintsmith - I'd be interested in joining the Telegram group.

oh dear -

and Boots not Botts!

sorry for typo:

'too lazy to look'

@bakky
You posted at 21:15
''But this does not take into account any increase in travel sales. It is estimated that Primerdesign are supplying between 25% and 30% of all private testing for travel''. ....Really?
*************************************************************************************
Yes, really!
Please see this tweet thanks to Kat Hassard for a brief explanation:
https://twitter.com/kat_hassard/status/1346086712515158016
[Also see Shaunp’s spreadsheets/drop-box for further information on exactly which companies on the Gov.uk list use Novacyt products.]

For those to lazy to look, well known providers using Primerdesign’s Genesig or Promate tests include Wren Healthcare, Katalyst Laboratories and Botts Chemist

I chose my words carefully, however, and say it is an ‘estimate’ not a fact as we are talking 25% of those companies on the list of approved providers use our products rather than 25% of the total number of tests undertaken for travel.

Clearly, some providers will be processing more tests than others and no one knows the exact numbers that any one company is getting through. What we do know from the previous link shared [https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9643143/Covid-testing-CARNAGE-puts-foreign-holidays-risk.html], is that many are running at full capacity and this is at a point where travel is being hugely restricted/discouraged with very few countries so far on the green list. Imagine what it will be like next year when travel is freed up and these companies, the airlines and airports have got themselves more organised.

@Grim Tim
Thank you for your recent analysis.

Whilst I agree with the sentiment, I would urge caution, on the Q2 figure. Many other posters have also been using 50% of £72m x 4 approach to predict the full year 2021 revenues.

Revenues for Q1, as announce, were £72m, but it is stated that ‘approximately’ 50% were private and international sales. Evidence points to the DHSC element being 39m (net of VAT) so this would leave 33m for private and international (I think this is close enough for GM to call it 50%). Of this, however, a considerable chunk (10m) was for the UNICEF Ukraine contract. Whilst we could see another such contract repeated throughout the year, it would be prudent to discount this in future earnings. If sales have remained static, therefore, we should be looking at a figure of 22m as a realistic minimum for Q2 and use 33m as a figure for Q1 for all non-DHSC sales.

But this does not take into account any increase in travel sales. It is estimated that Primerdesign are supplying between 25% and 30% of all private testing for travel.

Take a look at this article to give you an idea as to where their revenues are going:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9643143/Covid-testing-CARNAGE-puts-foreign-holidays-risk.html

This is where it becomes problematic giving a forecast figure. Q2 should see considerable additional sales from this activity, but I’m not sure it will be the difference between 22m and the 36m you assume. Q3 will be even more so affected by increased travel, and I can see the gap being filled and surpassed even. Whilst a decline in Q4 for holiday travel may occur, as the season tails off, this could be replaced by more business travel, so who knows?

The reason I highlight these discrepancies is that we don’t want to overegg expectations and see disappointment on H1 2021 results. This company is going to go from strength to strength. But there is a possibility of a slight dip in Q2, which should be expected, if it does not then materialise, great.

The second half of the year is another matter, as on top of the increased travel outlined above, we will by then have traction in our recently reported activity in the American continents, plus expected 1m per week sales of LFT (significant revenue), further international (NVAP) genomic activity, rest of world sales etc. And, of course, M&A activity in line with the, by then, revealed company strategy will all come into play.

So, in summary, I certainly do not dispute your £12 SP figure, we should be at least at this – but expect a possible dip in Q2 2021 revenues.

All in my own opinion, GLA, DYOR, multibillion pound company in the making, enjoy the journey…

Or only 71m even? - these golden tickets are rarer than one might think!

sorry SteveV - on different threads and our posts have crossed, but we're both tentatively calling the bottom at 14:00 today

Agree and he could be tad annoying - but he could also be good for sentiment at times.

The serious point - and it's always dangerous to publicly call the bottom, is that we could actually have seen the worst of it now, and this lunch time could have been the turning point. Posts over the weekend and today may have helped clarify the situation for some investors and many have been waiting to jump back in, once a few start we'll get that domino effect...

I was expecting this to happen at the beginning of June - this may just be a false start or perhaps, with the bad news now out of the way, pre-results FOMO is already starting - let's see what the market says!

Where's ahrehunter3 when yo need him:

We're blue - we're buying what the French have sold!
Tide is turning - WorldQuant are bowing out - FOMO is kicking in
Some thought they'd wait 'til June, but it'll be above £4 before Friday's close

Interesting posts and in some detail, thank you - this corroborates my thinking and what some other BB members have speculated previously.

Basically, the DHSC meant 'instead of' and Novacyt understood 'as well as'

So DHSC had order £150m worth of Exsig and Winterplex then wanted Promate - they got both, but only want to be invoiced for what they used.

I suspect DHSC will be tied by the contract and will have to cough up eventually - but as an investment case, even if they only part pay for what they owe, I cannot see a downside to any outcome to this dispute. (i.e. i can see plenty of upside but little downside from where the SP now stands, as the worst fears have already been more than factored in). Once clarity and certainty are restored (even if it's not hugely favourable) there is going to be a huge bounce. And, as Karen says, we may get other news at any time which will catch many out.

Hence my decision to go all-in early.

GLA, however you decide to time it. One thing is for sure, the price is not going to be anywhere near where is now in six months time. What it does in between is anyone's guess. I'm happy to have bought more at around 350p and will ride out any further possible small dip knowing this will easily double on the bounce before regaining a more sensible rating further down the line as SNPsig (think NVAP) and Versalab/private testing literally take off this summer. As VanV put it - in a few months, this DHSC dispute will just have been a pothole on our route - although I'm not sure you call it a pothole on a mountain track!

Keep smiling and keep the faith - all will come good, knowing our luck the £15 zoom meeting will come just as pubs are fully open! :-0

@BluetigerUK

you may be right - it could simply be risk management. But whatever the reason, liquidity is not great - so, when investors cotton on to how much underlying value thee is here and buying pressure resumes...

Indeed, onwards and upwards, the Mountain beckons.

I did say I wasn't going to buy anymore, as I already own too many shares for one person. I can't see the SP staying here for long though - and this is just too tempting. So many posters over the weekend saying they are waiting to load up as soon as they see a change in direction/sentiment. I prefer to buy when others are fearful. When this goes it's going to move fast IMO.

Whichever way you look at the figures, this is hugely oversold and at some point has to reflect reality. IMO this will give sooner rather than later. The MCAP has seen a knock greater than the £150m DHSC contract - i.e. the SP has already factored in us giving all the money back as if the contract had not existed in the first place.

Well it has taken me nearly 40 minutes to make my purchase. I had to break down my buys into 5k chunks and even down to 2.5k at one point. Clearly, the shorting algorithm, or whatever it is that is driving the price downward, is only selling in small bites. So I can't buy and this is with the price moving south?

For those waiting on the sidelines, if it's that difficult to buy with the price moving down, I don't know what it's going to be like for you when your all trying to get back in at the same time as the price begins to rerate!

GLA

Oh – and to lift the spirits in times of difficulty here’s a song to help you on your way:

We're climbing up to Sunshine Mountain
where the four winds blow
We're climbing up the Sunshine Mountain
faces all a glow
Turn your back on all your troubles
Reach up to the sky
We're going up to Sunshine Mountain
You and I, You and I, 2 3 4…
(repeat until all investors are singing)

For those that done know the tune - sung badly in the link below:
https://www.argaum.org.uk/videos/going-up-sunshine-mountain--66655.html

I couldn’t help but notice a little mountain talk started by Kaeren earlier.

@troubleome – the mountain’s called Sunshine Mountain and we’re going up it.

Sunshine Mountain

Hight: Unknown - many rumours abound with popular legend sighting 5,400. The foothills alone are known to lie at around 1,200 – best estimates from cartographers predict the summit at anywhere be between 1,500 and 100,000 (for those willing to go all the way to the top).

Mineral deposits: 71 million carat, pure, quality gold (clearly not enough to go around, so some are loading their pockets early and others squirreling it away).

Terrain: Hard-going, – there are very few easy-going paths, the ground is mainly wildly undulating, interrupted by at times shear drops and ascents. This is no climb of the feint hearted, some prior mountaineering experience preferable but stamina and strength of character prerequisites for those hoping to reach the summit.

Climate: Frequently foggy in the foothills and lower regions making navigation difficult. Some have been known to be swept away by sudden gusts of hot air. The peak is thought to be well above cloud level, however, and basks in continuous sunshine during daylight hours – hence the name.

Take care fellow climbers!

@Wilson

Just in case you're wondering (your post at 12:35 ref LTH "...they've nearly all done one"), I'm still here, and I'm sure Bramley, and others too, are lurking in the background.

Just waiting quietly for the re-rate, a lot of patience needed. The SP currently, indeed, does not compute, but that's because we know far more about what is going on than your average investor (see my Zulu Principle post from last year).

We eat and breath this share, it will be a while before Jo Bloggs catches up with what's been going on. There is so much coming down the line to drive this up. Just sitting on your hands for weeks on end can be the hardest thing. I know you are convalescing, Wilson, but for those that can get away form the screen please do so "a watched kettle never boils" - and when this kettle boils it's a real pressure cooker that's going to blow.

Multi-billion company in the making, first stop SP £15 coming soon (IMO), DYOR, GLA

@oriens 1

They tweeted this on May 3rd

"Our SNPsig® range continues to grow, with new additions for the detection of L452R & 20B/S.484K. Our expert bioinformaticians continue to track daily SARS-CoV-2 #sequences & #mutations, to continue our role as leaders in GOLD-standard detection of #variants of concern. #Novacy"

@Airlienboy 16:51 you said:

"Maybe we should club together and do a Victor Kiam and buy the company? "

Do you not see the irony in your statement? - It's exactly what we all (including young Dylan) have done!

My family own nearly a thousandth of the company. At £12 we owned that same share and at this lousy price our share has not changed. When the share price reaches our Zoom-meeting price of £15 - we will still own a thousandth of the company. And when in two or three years' time we have a market capitalisation of 3-4bn, the proportion owned by us still won't have changed (I won't be topping up - I think we already own enough, but not selling either). At that point, though, we'll be smiling from ear to ear.

GLA - Remember, we all own a share of a fantastic company that IMO is in the early stages of becoming something really special (think ASOS, Amazon or Tesla in the early days); patience and stamina is required. The journey is a rocky one.

Great, altruistic gesture, well done Novayct!

...and will do no harm to our brand development, as discussed yesterday:

*** Nestle, Nike, NASA, Nisan, Novacyt ***