Member Info for HillSeeker

Shaun - he has just confirmed $10 a test

Talking about Novacyt now!

Direct link and registration is free:
https://www.piworld.co.uk/events/

@1st Timer - the amount you pay could be more than 10% depending on how much you have invested. If you make large profits (which is easily done with this share!) the capital gains made can take you into the 40% tax bracket. You will, therefore, get £12,300 tax free, then pay 10% on the next portion and then 20% on the rest. As I re-mortgaged at the beginning of the year, with the view of using equity released for buy-to -let purchases, I was unable to put all the money into ISAs. I put £20k in each of my and my wife's ISAs and then did the same again on 6th April in the new tax year. The rest had to stay in Investment accounts, so now I'm stuck with huge profits outside of protection (I'm not moaning!). This mans, though, I will need to consider selling a little before the end of the tax year and each year going forward to keep my tax liability down on Novacyt shares held outside of protection. Remember you are only liable to CGT when you sell. I may also gift some of my wife's shares to me as her investment account is more weighted to Novacyt than mine, as I also hold Ibstock and Saga. You could gift some of your shares to your spouse if you have one.

I have pasted below an extract form HL's CGT information sheet:

CGT is normally charged at either 10% or
20% depending on your taxable income in that
year. Your gain is added to all other taxable
income in that tax year to work out the rate of
tax. (Gains on residential property are taxed
at 18% and 28%, depending on other
taxable income.)
If the gain falls into two bands, by taking
income from the basic to the higher rate,
you’ll pay CGT at 10% (or in some cases 18%)
on the amount which falls into the basic-rate
band and at 20% (or in some cases 28%)
on the amount which falls into the
higher-rate band

Acuere, you are correct, there are no FT-SE AIM tracker funds. That is because compared the main FT-SE indices, there is little money to be made in an index that tracks a basket of AIM shares selected purely by their MCap. Too many funds have failed in the past, as although there are many AIM shares that rocket such as Boohoo, Asos or Fever Tree, about which we have recently read so much, too many AIM listed stocks go bust, simply languish or fizzle to near nothing which brings down the basket average.

Instead, institutional investors need to spend time researching and picking wisely. However, there is another big problem for them. They cannot invest in shares who's MCap is too low, no matter how much the share looks undervalued and may multiply. Many funds are in the billions. If they have a minimum spend of say £50m, to make it worth their while, there is no way that they can invest in a share whose MCap is a mere £200m or so. There would simply no be enough liquidity to buy this many shares (who is going to sell them?).

This is why Novacyt is now ripe and ready for Institution Investors to pick. It has been showing promise for some time and has started to show profit for a sustained period, brokers have done the research and are now spreading the word. But most importantly, it is just becoming big enough for large institutions to be able to invest some serious money.

Join the dots... GLA, £1bn, SP 15 - any moment now!

I agree with many other posters. The £34 is not as blue sky as portrayed. It only assumes that we are successful in obtaining the phase 2 contract in full - i.e. 700 units. The bull prediction assumes only 300 unfits and the bear prediction assumes no further units at all are ordered for phase 2.

I don't think it is blue sky at all to assume we will get the phase 2 contract in full, considering that the Government is behind with its testing targets and we are only talking two month's time. Boris is hanging a lot of politiacl capital on Moon-shot and Novacyt will be giving him a reliable solution on a plate.

There are other assumptions made in the blue sky version (you can read these for yourselves if you haven't yet done so) but none of them are far-fetched.

I would read £34 as bull rather than blue sky.

Join the dots... GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15 very soon indeed!

Forward looking bookings as we know are positive. The company has two spanking new ships which customers can't wait to board.

Vaccines are unlikely to be the solution, but PCR tests are becoming quicker and easier to use without loosing accuracy. They are also becoming more mobile too (see Novacyt- Primerdesign for example).

The government have been slow to act on airports and other travel, making up all sorts of excuses, when in reality they were concerned about testing capacity. This will right itself in the new year as test companies upscale and sort supply issues. They have already made phenomenal increases from zero to millions, but we need more. International norms for travel testing will be in place by the spring, hopefully, and the pent up demand can then be satisfied.

SP will not linger at this level for long we de Haan at the helm. We have enough cash to see us through all this, even if there are further delays (but I cannot see them stopping cruises into the summer), and the insurance arm (80% of the business) is already profitable.

https://www.travelandleisure.com/cruises/cruises-mandatory-covid-tests?utm_campaign=travelandleisure_travelandleisure&utm_content=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=5f88aab8ce5c4700017f67c2&fbclid=IwAR1Fg27tGyMV2NoyDt7LYFacnTo0duh7pOSk3mpW4vMSfomfBIbzT9_CcoQ

GLA DYOR SP £2.50 Spring 2021 then onwards and upwards

sorry - that was meant for the Saga board

Forward looking bookings as we know are positive. The company has two spanking new ships which customers can't wait to board.

Vaccines are unlikely to be the solution, but PCR tests are becoming quicker and easier to use without loosing accuracy. They are also becoming more mobile too (see Novacyt- Primerdesign for example).

The government have been slow to act on airports and other travel, making up all sorts of excuses, when in reality they were concerned about testing capacity. This will right itself in the new year as test companies upscale and sort supply issues. They have already made phenomenal increases from zero to millions, but we need more. International norms for travel testing will be in place by the spring, hopefully, and the pent up demand can then be satisfied.

SP will not linger at this level for long we de Haan at the helm. We have enough cash to see us through all this, even if there are further delays (but I cannot see them stopping cruises into the summer), and the insurance arm (80% of the business) is already profitable.

https://www.travelandleisure.com/cruises/cruises-mandatory-covid-tests?utm_campaign=travelandleisure_travelandleisure&utm_content=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=5f88aab8ce5c4700017f67c2&fbclid=IwAR1Fg27tGyMV2NoyDt7LYFacnTo0duh7pOSk3mpW4vMSfomfBIbzT9_CcoQ

GLA DYOR SP £2.50 Spring 2021 then onwards and upwards

Any of you who have read Jim Slater's book 'The Zulu Principle' [subtitled: Making extraordinary profits form ordinary shares] will know that the main title refers to becoming an expert in the companies in which one invests.

If you watch Zulu you know more than the next man, if you watch a documentary on Zulus, you know more than the whole village, if you did a couple of evening classes you'd more than likely know more than most in the county - do an MA and your half way to being interviewed by the BBC as an expert on Zulus.

@Baramley The fact that the share price did not shift much today is a good thing. Look at the board - we all immediately understand the significance, you can tell that from all the excitement and detail and insight shown in the posts. However, the wider market does not know its PCR from its Q32 (even the Motley Idiot admitted it did not know the product - a supposed financial magazine for G's sake) - all they understand is bottom line and they won't see that until end of year results or until the broker's note gives them the heads-up.

We, on the other hand, read this board day-in day-out and, thanks to all the great research and contributors, are all becoming experts in the field.

B2 and Lolo make excellent points about being able to adapt the machine to suit our needs. But the clear pointer that answers Shaun's question is this line in the RNS:

" In addition, an earn out of up to £1.9 million in cash is payable to the directors of IT-IS over the next two years, subject to certain manufacturing targets being achieved."

Cleary, GM is concerned about the upscaling and quantities potentially needed. You are not going to invest nearly £2m in bonusses on just this unless you are serious about quantity. IT-IS clearly make a wonderful machine but have produced these as a bespoke devices for a specialised market - until now that is.

Centralised testing is not working (24 hour delays is far too long) - we need local hubs everywhere. Once the R&D team have simplified the process so that a monkey of an operator can use the machine, rather than a qualified technician, its portability opens doors in every walk of life.

This is the joining of the dots moment:

*Prove it works (Queen Mary and initial DHS roll out)
*Simplify the process and improve the machine (R&D and IP ownership)
Ensure the IT works and is in-house so that feedback can be given (again, R&D and IP ownership)
*Secure the supply chain and upscale (ownership)
*Sign the biggest of contracts (NHS and Care homes)
*Sign a load more of them (football stadiums, airports, you name it)

We, as aboard, are well ahead with our expertise, understanding and investments - IMHO put all you can in this sharet, then sit back and let the hoards catch up.

Join the dots., DYOR, £1bn, SP £15 - coming very soon to a broker near you!

Thank you, Bramley and AirlineBoy. By the way, AZN are currently trading at £81.90 - I'm not entirely sure what they will be trading at the point of merger!

I know it well AIrlineboy - next year of course, I be able to afford to cross the river to Walberswick and eat oysters in the Anchor Inn!

Part 3 of 3
To those that don’t know me, I am Hillseeker. This tongue-in-cheek handle is in recognition of my move from Gloucestershire to Norfolk many moons ago. I have a lovely wife and three teenage children (all heavily invested) and am unlikely to return to the hills of the Cotswolds.
But I have found another type of hill, or should I say mountain, to climb and my intention is to keep going and climb Ben Navacyt to the top!
Now – rather than watch the price and the BB all day, I’ll be taking my visiting mother to Southwold for a walk along the windy beech and then a cream team me thinks.

I look forward to seeing you all in the £15 zoom meeting at Christmas!

Disclaimer: Time scales and SP may not be accurate. This is not advice, Cameron, DYOR. You will have to make your own mind up. Scenario 2: an ‘Optitron’ machine comes to market. You just look into it and within 5 seconds it has read your retina and tells you whether you are Covid19 positive, Covid19 negative or you are just blind drunk. Novacyt share collapses to all time low of 5.5p!

Part 2 of 3
Imagine this:
The whole of October, no more news! The share continues to bounce up and down on specualtion and hearsay. But we are just into November and yes, SH3, can you believe it? - a midday RNS. The Queen Mary results have recently come in, and on the back of this, UK Gov place a new contract with 4000 new Q16 and 32 not just for care homes but more NHS hospitals and trials at larger GP practices. The SP reaches £15 well before expected end of the year.
Two days later, another RNS! Novacyt have unexpectedly (although GM did say midterm M&A at the AGM) bought a small private firm in Southampton and their IP for lateral flow testing. Second intraday RNS as two more TR1 announced. The price moves rapidly beyond £20
BB goes wild but share drops back as profit is taken.
We are into early January. RNS with early trading update: Full year results are ‘far in excess’ of expectations with sales from 130 plus countries, Winterplex struggling to keep up with demand despite upscaling three times. US figures still disappoint, however. Previous DHSC contracts are confirmed/allowed to run on. Price jumps to £27 before settling back at around £25.
Two more months pass. The SP has continued to fluctuate but this time in a narrower band. Much talk on the BB about having missed the boat, but many others are still buoyant and say this is cheap at £25. Vaccine trials in many countries are finding difficulties. Some have been halted due to side effects reducing take up, and efficacy is low at just 44% for the leading brand. WHO have warned new strains of Covid19 and the virus expected to be in worldwide circulation well beyond 2024.
May 2nd 2021 RNS: Takeover of US large distributer announced.
May 4th 2021 RNS – three new products announced, two of which are non-Covid related. SP reaches new all-time high of £42
There is no stopping Novacyt. October 2021, Primer Design Novacyt is now a household name, there is renewed talk of adding GM to New Year’s Honours list... this time in the main media. Surely, he will be knighted this time round, Van V?
2022. The BB has been quiet for some time. With many IIs now bought in, the share price has stabilised at around £40 for some time, but the company continues to innovate and bring new no-covid products to market. Some of the larger pharmaceuticals are now feeling threatened for potential loss of market share. But GM has built good relations with one. AZN decides a takeover would be too expensive at this point, and instead a merger is negotiated, as it looks to add a leading diagnostic division to its portfolio. With over 1311m shares in circulation AZN feels there would be little dilution, considering the potential gain of adding NYCT, with just 71m shares. All Novacyt shares are swapped with AZN shares at 1:1
Question is, Dylan, do you sell your new AZN shares and build a tree house?

Part 1 of 3
This is dedicated to Cameron1968, who all need to be nice to, but also all other new investors whether apprehensive or more intrepid, such a Libero who has come onto this board with such enthusiasm and gusto.
It is also dedicated to Bramley1967 (I was sorry to read that you were feeling rather disheartened at the beginning of the week, especially when you have given me and others so much support at previous times of turbulence) and dedicated also to all other long term holders who have held through thick an thin and contributed to this BB in so many ways with research, support and humour:
ShaunP, Kaeren, Wilson63, SH3, ggg21, VanV, Blade Sharp, Tay, Simple, Prop5, Bluelight, Alansugareatyour, B2HS2L, Usain_ (USAIN?), Surfie1961, Troublesome, Capt_Hindsight, Prop5, donnodertrader, Intrepidinvestor, Bing007, Waynesmith, , Woodalo, Wolverine007, Obélix, sonicboomboy, Airline Boy, and of course, our young Dylan and many, many more - sorry if I have missed you - and Silver51, do you still have skin in the game?

There has been discussion on his bb before regarding the market in China where Novacyt used to have a connection, but all has recently gone quiet, possibly as suggested here due to CPC political reasons .

My wife works at a school where there are overseas pupils and she sent me this interesting insight this morning form one of her pupils who is distant learning:

"Jay, my student who is learning from China, says that his whole city has just been tested in 5 days due to an increase in numbers. He lives in Qing Dao, 9 million people in 5 days! Someone turned up at his door & tested him. If he tests positive they just turn up, without notice, and take you directly to hospital to isolate for 14 days. Talk about organised!"

Now, Boris and his Moonshot is unlikely to be as organised or draconian as this, but it gives one an idea of the scale of the testing required to keep this virus under control. This is going to be massive in the spring (now just over two months away!) to get the economy going again. They cannot simply rely on a half effective vaccine that many people won't want to take anyway - and lockdowns are not getting more popular that's for sure.

Only way is test, test test - only way for Nyct is up - keep hold of your golden tickets

Join the dots... GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15 by Christmas

Definition: A tsunami (Japanese: ??) is a series of waves in a water body caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, generally in an ocean or a large lake.

Q: What do you get before a tsunami?

A: A big pull-back.

The lull before the storm, a pull back, call it what you will (and it may last more than a day). but one thing is still for sure, we are in line for a continued re-rate as further news comes in and orders build. You don't want to be standing on the beach when the monster wave comes in, as the Institutional Investors start piling in. Get on board now to ride the mother of all kahunas!

Nothing goes up in a straight line, but the direction is clear.

join the dots... DYOR, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - by Christmas

I totally agree with Shaun and Bramley.

If in doubt, take the time to watch the recording of the AGM again.

As Shaun points out - Graham's last words were "this is the beginning no the end" and that was less than two weeks ago.

If you rewind a bit further to where GM is answering the questions, he talks about short term acquisitions happening in the near future (possible IP?) but larger targets are planned for the first half of next year. There is clearly a plan in mind.

Remember the strategy is to become the leading diagnostics company.

join the dots... DYOR, GLA, £1bn, SP £15 - by Christmas

I haven't posted much recently as the SP seems to be doing it for us. The fact that those remaining invested and those new to the share are now sitting on their hands is seeing this re-rate much more rapidly than some of us expected - but it is also long overdue. This has been seriously undervalued for so long and many thought they had missed the boat when this is just the beginning the ride.
At one time a £1bn M-cap seemed ambitious, but it is looking entirely reasonable now and we are looking at figures possibly well beyond that in the longer term.

GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP£15 - in time for Christmas?

No worries B2HS2L, easily done with the amount of posts on this bb. The more it is repeated the better in my view. Here's the link, again, in case anyone missed it.

https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/should-i-buy-novacyt-shares-now-5-reasons-why/

Plus the 6th reason: We have no debt - this is no mentioned, it was all cleared in the first few months of the year.

Plenty of upside to come - hugely undervalued still. IMO

GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15 minimum

- 6 good reasons why you haven't.

One initial thought that many people new to this share may be thinking is, have I missed the boat? The share has already risen more than 40 fold, there cannot be any more upside - surely?

Well that's what I thought when I only dipped in with a small investment at 169, only to watch it rapidly move to £5 and then retrace. That was a whole world ago in the early days and it has steadily built a much more sound position, and as posters below are saying, since then the company has been transformed. We now have a new floor or foundation on which to build and the sky appears to be th limit. But don't take our word for it.

The attached Share Buyers article from 29th September (it has been posted before, but easily missed with recent amount of traffic) gives 5 good reasons to invest in Novacyt right now:

https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/should-i-buy-novacyt-shares-now-5-reasons-why/

A 6th reason is we have no debt - this is no mentioned, it was all cleared in the first few months of the year.

Plenty of upside to come - hugely undervalued still. IMO

GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15 minimum