Member Info for HillSeeker

Yes, I could not fathom this today. I also hold Carnival and could not see any news that was adversely hitting Saga SP.

A complete enigma!

Looking at posts today there is optimism tinged with caution. I think things will look increasingly positive for Novacyt but it will take far longer to work through than some investors would like. It looks, for example, like the US sales manager post has only just been filled. And I agree with Tendz that these new marketing roles may be to ensure future sales/tenders rather than cope with sales we already have. We would all rather that they were in response to huge orders, but I would also rather we were more cautious at this stage and see long steady rise, as news becomes available, rather than over-hype at this stage.

We saw a drop in SP after the 6 months' sales RNS, as we were expecting sales of 10m units per month, whereas reality was £20m income. This meant that either we were only getting £2 per test or sales were not as high as expected. Had investors not expected sales of 10m units, I don't think investors would have been disappointed with the £20m sales for June - it's all about managing expectations.

It takes time to grow a company and Govt seems to be acting very slowly, which does not help - they haven't even decided what they are going to do with airport testing for example - so we can't have sold anything in this respect. The same goes for the 2 gene test - it will be end of year before we get any sales from this. The biggest short term hope is the giant labs and our tie-up with AZ, plus results from the Queen Mary trials but these could take time to result in orders.

So would say that, rather than 'the stage is set' - we have purchased all the timbers and are building an almighty theatre. £1bn plus company, £15 SP - but not yet, December rather than Sept before we see much larger sales figures come through IMO.

Join the dots; DYOR, GLA

Despite Heathrow being oven-ready, it sounds like airport testing has not been decided yet. This from Telegraph article this morning (sorry have paper version so no link):

"A cabinet committee comprising Mr Shapps; Matt Han****, the Health Secretary; Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary; and Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office Mister, is next week expected to consider three options - the status quo, double testing, or a single test after a period of quarantine."

please don't let them decide on the status quo- but at least we should have a decision within a week - but then they'll have to decide which test, let's hope Collinson are using and recommending ours

yes - sorry confusing £15 target price with £1bn market cap projection - thanks, Wilson, don't want to be seen as ramping.

Interesting that due to the Putin/vaccine news all my travel stocks (Carnival, Saga, Dart group) saw a huge rise yesterday - but they are all back down again today despite good FTSE performance. People have worked out that it was Russian fake news. Nyct has not rebounded on the other hand - so yesterday's and toady's drop are not related to vaccine news I don't think, but were just due to sentiment, due to the short positions and lack of news only. We all know there is plenty of news to come, so it is just case of riding the waves (or troughs) and waiting for the news to come. This is now a longer play and patience will be rewarded come end of September if not before. GLA, DYOR, join the dots... £15bn

didn't someone say Astra-Nova yesterday?

Premierdesign Dinosaur Hide
Treehouse (when hes 18... the playboy house)
Dylanova Shack
NovaShack
Casanova
Primerdesign Inn
Primer Inn
Bungles Bungalow
Dylan's Council Tax Free Abode
Dylan's Mansion
AstraDenica
Dylan's Den
Mullis Towers
Champagne SuperNova (Tree)
Gaelic
Takeover House
Tennerashare
NovaARCtree
Novatopia

Agree totally, expect plenty of volatility over the next weeks and months - but the end game is £1bn company,so hold on in until all the dots have been joined! GLA. DYOR

totally agree - this looks a real bargain at this price. Even with second wave I cannot see builders downing tools again (possibly only locally to a specific site ) this won't effect Ibstock. There is only upside form hereon in. Have added another 20k at just under 160 to my holding. GLA. DYOR

It was a kick in the teeth to let people go on holiday and then effectively call them back again - this has really hit confidence. I think Gov reluctance to use testing at airports and quarantine or use 'air bridges' instead is due to them being worried about having enough to supply what they would consider higher priority areas such as care-homes first. Once manufacturing of tests (see previous post/link) has been seriously up-scaled, to cater for all the demands, we can go down the testing route rather than quarantine and this share will take off once more.

yes - I have posted below the link from earlier. Testing is IMO the solution to this. I'm not sure why the media and Gov picked up on the two companies in the news on Monday when there are more established and proven companies already doing similar and faster tests. Once supply has caught up with demand, these will be used everywhere. I think Gov reluctance to use testing at airports and quarantine instead is due to them being worried about having enough to supply what they would consider higher priority areas such as care-homes first.

The paragraph below is taken from a recent Primer blog:

"We are also looking to expand the application of the NPTS further into remote settings, such as on cruise ships, on small islands without the infrastructure to support large testing capacities, airport testing for traveller screening and military deployment."

See link for whole article: https://blog.primerdesign.co.uk/want-to-know-more-about-novacyts-near-patient-testing-system/

Nanopore just been on Jeremy Vine - I can't see nay thing this test does that Primer's test does not do. The only difference is Nocacyt's test has been validated and is possibly quicker at 60 mins

My punt on IPO this morning not going anywhere, so cashed in and added more to Novacyt holding on the dip - this looks ready do continue on up now.

I’ve just used my spare cash in my current account (I’m not selling any of my NCYT) to place a punt on IP Group (ticker IPO) – not had tie to research them properly. It’s an intellectual property company. Any profit from the day trade can come into NYCT for longer term investment.
IP Group plc - Portfolio company Oxford Nanopore Technologies announces advanced development of LamPORE, for rapid, highly scalable, low-cost COVID-19 detection

https://www.ipgroupplc.com/media/ip-group-news/2020/2020-05-22

Looks like this was a leak that has forced the Gov to make an announcement. It does not mean that we would not be part of all of this, just because they have named two of the potential tests to be used.

"The new tests were announced after the department denied that it had abandoned its pledge to regularly test care home residents through the summer following a leaked memo from Professor Jane Cummings, the Government’s adult social care testing director."

DNA Nudge also involved:

From September, a DNA-based test, supplied by London-based DnaNudge, will be rolled out across NHS hospitals, with 5.8 million tests already on order. It uses nose swabs to test for Covid and is already in use in eight London hospitals. The Government has bought 5,000 of its diagnostic machines. Other rapid-turnaround tests are expected to be ordered from other firms in the coming weeks.

The new tests are on top of the 500,000 tests per day target the Government set for the end of October.

A senior Government source said: “This will enable us to massively ramp up testing in the coming months, and it will mean that we can test entire towns or cities to prevent the need for wider lockdowns. If we had already had this in place when the outbreak happened in Blackburn, we could have tested everyone in Blackburn, contained the virus and avoided having to reimpose lockdown measures on neighbouring towns.

“The sheer number of tests we will be able to do will also cut down quarantine for travellers because we will be able to test them on arrival and again at eight days, allowing them out of quarantine after 10 days instead of 14.”

Unfortunately I don't think this is us - this form the Telegraph:

The tests can detect flu as well as Covid, meaning people who have Covid-like symptoms will know whether they are suffering from the more common illness and can avoid self-isolating. It follows a successful pilot of the 90-minute tests in Southampton.

The first of the tests to come on stream, supplied by Oxfordshire-based Oxford Nanopore, will be able to process 15,000 tests per day on a portable desktop machine, or 2,000 tests per day using a handheld machine. They do not require scientific experts to operate them, meaning the Government can train lay people to operate as many machines as are needed. The first batch of 450,000 tests will be available from next week.

I don't think cruise companies can hold there breath waiting for a vaccine. There has to be a mid-term strategy around testing.

Up until now, there has been too much demand for testing and samples needed to be sent to large centralised labs - it takes too long for results to turn around, but companies like Primer (owned by Novacyt) are filling these gaps and developing innovative techniques with theire Near-Patient Test System (NPTS).

The paragraph below is taken from a recent Primer blog:

"We are also looking to expand the application of the NPTS further into remote settings, such as on cruise ships, on small islands without the infrastructure to support large testing capacities, airport testing for traveller screening and military deployment."

See link for whole article: https://blog.primerdesign.co.uk/want-to-know-more-about-novacyts-near-patient-testing-system/

I don't think cruise companies can hold there breath waiting for a vaccine. There has to be a mid-term strategy around testing.

Up until now, there has been too much demand for testing and samples needed to be sent to large centralised labs - it takes too long for results to turn around, but companies like Primer (owned by Novacyt) are filling these gaps and developing innovative techniques with theire Near-Patient Test System (NPTS).

The paragraph below is taken from a recent Primer blog:

"We are also looking to expand the application of the NPTS further into remote settings, such as on cruise ships, on small islands without the infrastructure to support large testing capacities, airport testing for traveller screening and military deployment."

See link for whole article: https://blog.primerdesign.co.uk/want-to-know-more-about-novacyts-near-patient-testing-system/

I think you could be right about instrument sales. We are all looking at June figures and wondering where the 10m test sales are. This paragraph from the Primer blog shared earlier should IMO not be overlooked:

"Whilst testing is widely accepted as the greatest weapon we currently have against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, implementation has not been without its challenges as various issues have limited healthcare systems in being able to reach their targets for desired testing output, as well as question the eventual performance of the test. These challenges include high demand and restricted supply of necessary consumables and reagents for testing, particularly for closed-instrumentation systems, confusion on what the most appropriate test method is within the scientific community (rapid, ELISA, molecular or sequencing), and the perceived value of each diagnostic marker of the disease as our understanding of COVID-19 developed (antigen, antibody, genetic elements)."

Clearly, it is difficult to sell tests if there is a lack of chemicals to process them or you don't have the testing kit in the first place. So whilst another link posted earlier shows demand outstripping supply for tests, Novacyt may have still had difficulty in selling tests as they could not supply the bigger testing machines (that the likes of Roche sell but are in too much demand). The sales if tests may now improve due to lower amount of reagents needed (this covers one of the issues) and we may be able to sell the smaller kits now that governments and companies see that it may be better to have more testing sites closer to target rather than large throughput labs where it takes too long to get the information back to end user (especially in the states). The question then would be, how quickly can Novacyt upscale its manufacture of q16 and q32?

Again, on Radio 4 this morning, care homes left in limbo. Let's see what Han**** says at 8:10 , he's coming on. Looks like either there is a supply problems (which would contradict scaling up of testing elsewhere) or they are stuck in contract with Randox who are sorting out one of their suppliers (remember it is a a safety problem - probably swabs snapping with just one of their manufactures) - you would think they could use other tests in the meantime - why not Gold Standard?.