Member Info for Hartlebury

I’d also argue that the current low p/e is based on low expectation of future years’ earnings. Phase 2 would provide not only a measurable amount of income (semi) guaranteed for next year but also an indication of future relationship with DHSC and ability of the company to service large organisations, which would seriously impact the P/E and therefore valuation. The absence of the visible long term prospects of NCYT is what is holding the valuation back right now and the absence of phase 2 is part of that

I see your point but disagree Deas, the brokers’ forecasts and near term valuation uses phase 1, there’s no expectation of phase 2, just the possibility of it. So the argument is that the market is valuing the company on the forecast. If your argument applies, there’s no need to announce if they have won it because it is within the forecast creating the current valuation. It is not an exact science of course, so anyone can have a view!

Daniel this has been kicked around a bit before. In my opinion the company would need to announce if they have won phase 2 of the contract but not that they hadn’t. My reasoning is based on the forecasts used in the broker notes which uses phase 1 as the base case scenario with phase 2 being ‘blue sky’ pushing the SP valuation from c£13 to c£35.

So sorry Poidster, those poor children.

Indeed SirDigby, also take high blood pressure (more than 1 in 4 people in uk) asthma, diabetes 1/2, massive numbers of people with these ‘pre existing conditions’ in our population too, with no reason to expect a significantly shorter life span than others.

Don’t get me wrong Deas, it is pretty horrifying but this definitely smacks of a typical Daily Fail scare story. I don’t think anyone who understands the situation thinks that this virus will be eradicated and the media should stop suggesting that it could be. What we need is to get it under control in a similar way to how flu is controlled and articles like this don’t address that.

775% up ....it would be amazing if NCYT could copy that but I think an update to the market before now would have had to be in order because surely that would take revenue beyond even the ‘blue sky’ valuation from brokers?

Link... https://www.ekfdiagnostics.com/ekf-opens-larger-facility-to-increase-production-of-key-component-for-covid-19-testing-regime.html

News on EKF expanding its manufacturing facilities for tubes for transporting samples for covid testing. Another indicator of demand for (non LFT) testing but did we ever figure out if they supply tubes etc for Nova’s testing?

I was asking Poidster about it as a possibility K, he/she seemed knowledgable on the technicalities. Reply confused me a little though as it started off as ‘not likely because of risk of cross contamination’ then concluded ‘could work well’. (!)

Those labels also puts them firmly in the middle class 35-60 year old woman target area which is perfect, they have previously been attempting to win over the younger, more fashion conscious but tearing them away from Boohoo/ASOS/Zara was over ambitious, M&S simply not cool enough, cheap enough or nimble enough with getting stuff that sells on the shop floor. If you look how Zara operates, they copy popular stuff from social media quickly, get it out, use feedback from shop floor staff to see what is working and what isn’t and adjust manufacturing and supplies accordingly. For M&S this would be like turning an aircraft carrier. With these labels they have solid quality that appeals to people prepared to spend a bit more on items that last and look just fashionable enough! A quick look through mumsnet will tell you all you need to know, Seasalt, Joules and Hobbs get named as recommendations time and time again. I think it’s a great move alongside the Ocado partnership. I’m not a holder of M&S but now would like to be (have to find some cash!)

I see this as filling up the gap left by Debenhams and HOF closures. Smart move as for years M&S have failed to get their clothing strategy right.

Not an expert but Joules (along with lots of other labels with independent websites) can be bought from John Lewis online. Stock is definitely different on different sites - there’s may be JL exclusives, full range may not be sold via JL and items may be oos on one site but available on the other, so based on this I’d imagine M&S buyers would select the stock they want to buy from Joules and it would then transfer to M&S warehousing.

Would you see it as a practical option for schools Poidster?

Apologies- link!

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820965533

I don’t remember seeing this before but very interesting SAGE paper on test and trace. Highly recommends the use of pooled testing (eg LAMP) for mass asymptomatic testing as a way of dealing with shortage of capacity (processing) of PCR and false negative issue with LFT. Also this jumps out... ‘capacity is not everything, testing must be easy to access, locally run, accurate and quick.’

Not a big shock, given the crazy rise in cases in LA recently, another new strain, believed to be more transmissable, like the UK variant, has been identified there https://twitter.com/nythealth/status/1351657438928363521?s=21

There is no evidence yet..but there’s no evidence to the contrary either. Vaccine may need to be ‘tweaked’ to deal with variants.

Oh please stop, you sound like dodgy old men (whatever your actual age) drooling over a picture of a woman online.

Alin I am confused about exactly what MrDribbles’ point is as well.

On death figures, UK is bad, no doubt about it, for many reasons, including but not limited to poor government handling. But this pandemic is far from over and there are countries counting differently, almost certainly a few undercounting whether due to poor infrastructure or intention. Excess deaths in a year or two will tell the truer story about mortality rates. But (not to underestimate its importance) the number of deaths due to covid should not make us forget the terrible impact on survivors of covid too, recovering from being in icu, particularly on a ventilator is horrendous and long covid is shocking. These aspects seem to be conveniently overlooked by the ‘just a flu and they were going to die anyway’ brigade.