Member Info for Harrycash

Obviously people have differing trading styles. I invest in companies where I see value. Just was one such company. Unfortunately their handling of the last update and cap raise was handled poorly. Cap raise, ok but expensive at 9.94%. New shares, very poorly done, removing exist shareholders (us) from the placing was insulting really given the discount offered to the 'big players'. The result is you have 94mill new shares 'floating' around which really 'dumps' the SP. My short positions were reasonably 'placed' so I'm not 'bankrupt' yet but any more bad news from Just and I might be. Big issue for me is the divi, I agreed on the first deferred statement but the re-basing for 2019 is a bit hard to fathom. Anyway without profit going forward this will not happen.

Don't really have an agenda with Just but as a shareholder it concerns me when any CEO offloads shares, albeit for tax reasons or not. There was no reason to offload his free share options now. If he feels Just would do well after the cap raise then there was rearly no good reason to excercise his free share position. Yes your.correct Rodney showed his good faith in Just on the newly issued shares at 80p, as did Aberdeen taking 20million at 80p. My point is that a CEO selling for 69.5p gives a bad signal. How do you think Rodney and Aberdeen viewed his sale given their significant paper loss over the last week. Other's, like me have seen a 30% paper loss pre the last update. On this basis my view is that Just is now a very long term buy and this is only based on good news in the future and there is no guarantee of that.

Not sure I would agree on that theory. If he was confident in Just his options could have remained 'in place'. My understanding is there was no need to excercise his share options now. Always a negative however you look at it when CEO, etc, offload shares for whatever reason.

Major shareholder has been reducing their holding 11++% over the last few weeks to below 10% which we would explain the overhang and downward pressure on SP. Problem is if this a programmed 'dump' by this shareholder then it indicates either bad news is coming or a divi cut. At present the divi is covered but if the problem in the Netherlands is causing a 'cash drain' then they will reduce the payout. By now we should have heard some positives on the 'soil' contamination issue but nothing as yet. As they say no news normally suggests bad news. New bottom I'm setting at 20p but hope its not broke.

I will add that David Richardson is the standin CEO not CFO as posted. Apparently he sold 100,000 Just shares for tax reasons. Again not much reassurance on that story. My 'low ball' price on Just SP just got lowered from 65p to 60p. If the 'rats' are leaving the sinking ship as they say what about the other passengers. Really going to be a long haul with Just and new bonds paying 9.94% is a bit rich on borrowed money and debenture payments to my knowledge cannot be recalled pre 2024.

If you want to know about Just future look at the 'sell' by David Richardson the standin CFO. He got 200++++ free shares then sold 100,000 @ 69.5p. Obviously the guy figures Just SP is only going one way. Down. Hardly fills you with confidence as an investor in Just.

Not sure Questor or any other 'expert' knows any more than we do. Only FCRM management can give true guidance so hopefully 28th will be positive. On the major shareholders. If Blackrock et al are 'onboard' then you have to look at FCRM as a buy at these levels with the divi well supported so unless there is bad news on the 28th then look for uptick. Still set a low as 30p and the markets look likely to 'tank' today so look for 'pressure' across the board. We may see uptick if view'd as defensive stock.

Looking at the major shareholders its unlikely Sharp and Blackrock would be 'unloading' but watch for new RNS news on other 'holders' reducing their positions.
Only negative I ses for the full trading statement is that the intergration of the two business's bought in 2018 is taking longer than anticipated or there were 'risks' lurking in these business's that are now known. Difficult to imagine with the upward guidance on both revenue and profit. And being 'cash' positive difficult to see much downside but as always good news doe's not translate to SP gains.

If no upside after yesterdays pre market update then you have to wonder how low the SP can go. Set a bottom of 30p and will wait to see what happens. This is an unloved share that is not on the radar of most dealers even though profitable and cash strong. Will take something major to change present SP. See Iquniti from Germany rolling out 400 elec charging stations throughout Europe. Fulcrum need to announce something similar and partner up with supermarket chains. Good opportunity and headline grabbing.

Look at major shareholdings now. Aberdeen over 13% and Norsk Bank now close to 5%. Both these as the 20th. Guess they have both been adding on the dips. If they maintain or increase their holdings gives support for Just going forward but how long it will take is anyones guess

Difficult to see a 'bottom' on SP. I had suggested 65p but the downward trend is far sharper than I thought. The number of 'loose' shares is enabling volume buying which I'm guessing is the main interested institutions. Still say 65p as a bottom but if the market corrects downward badly could see 60p.

Hard to think FCRM is not a good long term investment so the recent SP drop is a surprise. Unless there is bad news coming difficult to see more downside on the SP. Good cash position and their market can only improve with electric cars, etc. They need to get a major contract with the likes of Tesco for future 'car charging' points given their expertise in this area.

Have to guess a price for Just would be on the low side given SP now. In a year things may look different. The issue was Just capital position but now this has been addressed there is considerable upside but presently the volume of 'loose' shares is dictating a 'downside'. Once cleared things may change. Next trading statement will be important in respect of forward guidance. If positive could help. If bad anybody's guess. Keep an eye on the major shareholders. Aberdeen over 12% is a positive lets hope they stay loyal.

The sheer volume of new shares being placed (94m) is causing an imbalance on the SP. Until this is cleared there is little support so my guess was a 'floor' of 65p. Not much interest given the scrip price was 80p that the likes of Aberdeen 'pledged' pre issue. Looking at their paper loss to date my guess is their 'hoovering' up the 'dumped' shares and doubling down. This is fhe only way to keep in front of any future change on the 'buy demand' side. At 65p look a good buy given the SP.has lost nigh on 30% real value in 7 days. Add to this the divi loss and you could only look at Just as a long term holding or a 'take out' holding given my earlier comments on the likes of L&G. Going to be a long slog with Just SP but sentiment may change but theres a big downside if Just fail to grow profits as expected.

As it stands there exists a huge share placement overhang. Until this is cleared don't see much upside. The trading statement and Capital raise with both debt and scip issue was not really that much of a surprise but excluding regular shareholders from the issue was, to me a long time shareholder, a bit of a disappointment. Obviously the shareprice will remain unpredictable until the new shares are either taken or dumped by the main players. Aberdeen obviously think their a buy at 80p but we will see. My own guess is if the markets dip over say 5 days the shareprice could drop to 65p. Good entry point or add to exist holding. However you look at it no Divi for a year depending on results but a return to profit would be a start.
Only three major players in the Equity Release market and Just are 3rd, Aviva and L&G the other two. L&G will be looking to increase their "book" in the growing market and the cheapest option is to take out the smaller players. At the present shareprice Just are an easy 'meal' for those looking to grow their Equity Release 'book' values. Only my opinion but things need to happen.at Just now they cleared the CapEx position.