Member Info for Harrycash

Rxdave

Only positive to a CEO leaving is a big 'big red' flag to the markets and really I'm concerned as to the next update. Divi and debt will come into focus 4sure and others have mentioned a delutive rights issue which maybe what happens. If so, how low will the issue be on SP now. For me looking like a 'dead share' going forward.
All theory of course but a really crap investment.

Yesterdays buy of 400k+ was cancelled???

As I said here today gone tomorrow on yesterdays mini bounce. CEO leaving 'rattled' the markets even more. New 'stop' set at 30p but I won't be buying even at that level. Penny stock I'm guessing on the next update which now looks likely to be bad with top guy announcing his departure.
All theory of course but again my worst investment to date. The reason being I see no good in Saga just debt and bad management so unlike other shares that 'tank' I see no upside whatsoever. The fundementals are crap and really who would want to buy anything Saga would likely sell. Guess only but figure the rebased divi will be on the 'block' in next update.

Wishful thinking bounce today and guess gone tomorrow. Lets wait and see. For me to.little to late. Be nice to see a return on my investment in Saga but unlikely any time soon. Probably my worst investment to date and 40p 'stop' still.in place lets see what the next statement says before I get excited.

Jl5006

Hope your correct and fed up.crossing my fingers and toes on some of my more shareholdings. FCRM being one. Patience they say is a 'virtue' but up to now its just been painful but hopefully the next update will give us all some hope??

JammyC.

I hope your scenerio works out but there exist sceptics looking at the continued pressure on rhe SP.
Jl5006
Analysis good on the divi situation and given 'free cash' is not under pressure then hopefully all will be well. Capex is still.worrying me and use on lending facility but hopefully this.is covered on revenue uptick??
My concerns are on the recent large 'dumps' of shares by a major holder but no RNS on any reduced holdings on major shareholders. By now we should have seen something but no news is putting pressure on the SP and 20p 'stop' is being tested to often for my likeing.

Ji5006

With all the issues, possibly just guesswork I suppose, how do we stand on the divi going forward. If there exists no problems in the July statement then the divi is ok or not. My guess would be that even without bad news they may re-base the divi.? Only a theory but if there is more 'drawdown' on the loan facility I really can't see the divi as stable.

Twelve Capital AG now hold 4.02 of Just Group. Why is the question. These guys normally do not take a position unless there is pending actions.
Cetainly not doing the SP any favours with a near 10% drop looking likely. Traders will pick up on the RNS at some stage so lets see if it spikes. Hope so very painful share to hold

Quick answer to "will it come". No it will not.

Jl5006. Thanks for the detailed response very informative.

Am I correct in saying that FCRM could have overstated or understated perceived values on these 'instruments'. If this is the case is it a 50/50 call on value/risk/reward. Your saying if this is the case would only affect 2019 numbers but surely these are forward looking instruments a bit like annuities that are not fixed. Is there the possibility that these instruments can be revalued to a profit/loss scenerio.
All a bit confusing but again the SP continues to get hammered. Be nice to believe that the major shareholders are suffering as we are but my guess is that they were well covered before this news was announced.

All theory of course but frustrating and will be deeply annoying if the truth differs from the RNS statement.

Question. They refer to 'non cash' issues that, they feel, do not affect the forcast numbers. These I assume are the 'instruments' your referring to??

J5006
I have not read the RNS statement as you obviously have but if the inference is that historic accounting for FCRM is the issue then this would explain the CFO leaving the company. Maybe genuine mistakes that can be corrected or if calculated errors then that's a different story. If there exists accounting errors its difficult to accept the statement on revenue and profit unchanged on previous guidance.

However you look at this the SP is getting hammered and my guess is this will continue until July, or until we get further clarification. If you were in the accounting industry you will know that these kind of statements on Financial Reporting bodes ill going forward.

Got to be looking now at a 'stop' of 15p on the SP over coming weeks. Not sure I would buy even at those levels.

All theory of course but worrying times for those still holding the shares.

Maybe Mike Ashley will buy Saga he's buying everything. Wishful thinking and who else thinks 10k of Saga shares will be worth 30k in a year or two. ???

DUNCANHILLER

Exactly which hedge fund(s) is buying Saga shares now or recently??

Retained 'stop' at 40p and yesterdays bounce gave some headroom against this being breached but came pretty close.
Update on the 19th could see Saga become a 'penny' share if more negative news. Difficult to see good news but time will tell.
Reluctant to buy back in even if goe's sub 40p. Next 'stop' would be 35/36p but guessing better to wait till 19th whatever happens. Figure debt issues will be a problem.
All theory of course but this has been a really bad investment.

As I had expressed before a CFO leaving, pushed or not, was a Red Flag to the markets. Now we have a forced delay to the Financial Disclosure issue. To me the two are obviously linked and contrary to the statement that revenue and profit forcasts are unchanged I now see significant risk up to the new July statement. You could argue the existing CFO is not up to the job, hence her departure, but surely FCRM should have sorted this out well in advance of yesterdays 'bombshell'.
Also the question on insider trading raises its head. There were a number of huge share 'dumps' over recent weeks so clearly some people knew what was coming.
All theory of course but yet another disappointing Small Cap company.

What date is the next trading update??

Whenever we must hope its positive news but caution because even good news at present may not result in any uptick on the SP. Bad news would certainly damage the SP but fingers and toes crossed.

Think my comment was Saga has no asetts that anyone would buy, and certainly not at anything like the book value. Hence they end up with little whilst the debt pile grows.

My stop at 40p looks reasonable but all here thought unlikely we would drop so low. See nothing to give a bounce now and the markets generally are taking a beating.

Just Group is likely to continue down until more positive news appears. Only upside theory is they get taken out on the cheap which is unlikely to be at much of a premium to the present SP.

No permanent CEO or CFO hardly gives confidence to the market and the'yre debt to equity ratio is seriously worrying if the present downtrend on new business continues.

All theory if course but not sure I want to hold these shares until 2022 for a possible turnaround. Added to that the 'deferred' divi which at present looks unlikely to ever be paid makes me believe Just Group is possibly in more trouble than shareholders know.

Been awhile posting but looks like my 'stop' at 40p sadly gets ever closer. No support for Saga really until there is a more positive outlook statement. Unlike TCG, they have assets worth something that others want, Saga really has very little other than debt so only good news can help.

A possible buyout is highly unlikely in the present travel industry and most of the 'major players' are short on travel stocks generally so they obviously see more downside.

If my 'stop' at 40p is breached then were possibly looking at a new 'stop' of 36p. Hope not.

All theory of course but not looking great for those holding this stock expecting a 'bounce'

Nice to see todays SP rise. Hopefully the market has seen thru the attempts to demolish TCG during the last week. Citi have some questions to answer on the zero value placed on TCG that was happily amplified by the media. This did untold damage to TCG so we must hope they can ride the storm.

Assets in respect of the airline and related 'slots' clearly have good value. Hopefully the Lenders will have patience and let the management get the best price they can. If this happens the debt/equity issue will be dismissed. Not sure Bondholders will want a 'fire sale' as this reduces the chance of them being paid more than presently quoted on Bond redemption values.