Member Info for Harrycash

Not sure I understand the 'grammar' issues. We write as we learn and sadly I've been learning a long time. How I express issues on SPs really should not matter. What matters is whether these comments help.
Non of us here are Warren Buffett and none of us have his $$$$ to waste but he looks at shares as a way of making money but he has a thousand experts to help. We do not and the simple fact is that 73% of 'single' investors like us lose money investing in individual shares as against a diversified Invest Trust etc. Sad fact but true.

Reading the opinions I had no idea you 'block' someone if you did'nt like the opinions. Seems a bit childish I thought the majority of us took some comfort and solace from those who were getting 'screwed' by the companies we invest in. Obviously not in some cases but its good to listen to differing views even though its a very expensive learning 'curve'.
All theory as usual but I can read a set of accounts so thats a good start.

I think if you read my posts on Just I said the bottom was 60p but a stop would be 54.72 if the SP slide continued. As it was JPM came to the rescue hence the 'bounce' to 64+ today. Not sure Saga has any such 'white nights' to come to the rescue. However you look at it both Just Group and Saga are now at the mercy of 'lenders and bondholders'. Saga is sadly in a worse place than Just Group.
These are only theory but all need care on companies that 'rack' up huge debt with no likely positive outcome.
Obviously were pretty crap at picking winners if we hold both Just Group and Saga. Its been a painful few weeks.

Clearly some believe that buying Saga at these prices is a 'winner'. Look at the 'books' and the debt and future 'impairment' is not sustainable on their 'new plan'. Only people getting rich are the CEO et al plus 'lenders and bondholders'. This 'story' is going to end badly so serious caution is needed. 40p is a reasonable 'stop' SP on Saga. Why pay more just be patient.

Not sure I'd agree on the theory this is not a good 'short'. Saga debt going forward on reduced revenue and therefore profit will impact on free cash flow. Only people getting rich are the 'lenders and bondholders' of Saga debt. In the end the debt will kill them so only prospect is for a buyer to come in and buy the profitable travel section of the company. The rest is now viewed as worthless just a big 'elephant' in the cupboard. Set my 'stop' at 50p yesterday but reduced that today to 40p. Any bounce and Im out. Watched the CEO on Sky News yesterday said he was not surprised at the SP tanking but the question is if things were so bad why was it not Red Flagged before yesterdays dire update.
So much for analysts being 'clever'. If their so smart why did they not see this nonsense coming. One of the biggest shareholders SLA actually raised their holding recently. They must be pretty miffed with Saga management.

Word of caution. If Saga break 'loan covenants' which could be likely then shareholders get.nothing only 'lenders and bondholders' get to pick over the 'carcass'.

This now looks like the Thomas Cook saga all over again. Figure will be a 'penny' stock soon enough. 50p is a good short term 'stop' to buy in and sell on any bounce but really unless some VC come in to rescue Saga little value in the SP.

Bad update reflected in the SP tanking. Set a bottom as 50p cant see.much upside from here. Once again one of Woodford investments get.hammered.

There was the UT trade buy after 4.30 of 1milliin plus. See if its a sell today.

Have an idea Aberdeen have a lot of 'clout' with these brokers like JPM. As you suggest they will be 'linked' to the SP Shorts. As influencial analysts they know their comments 'move the market' and Im sure its normally in their favour. Their 'note' yesterday maybe an attempt to stop the SP slide so they, and others, can close their 'short'.
All theory of course.

A question for ALL. In late trades yesterday there were a number of trades for 1, 2 and 3 shares on the sell side. These I guess are the 'shorts' trying to manipulate the SP down. All theory but wondered what others thought.Good volume on the 'buy' side in late trades kept it to 60p.

Hope the SP holds for you but got out took the loss as dont see any upside from here. Maybe wrong but Management get 'fat' while investors get poor. They could have 'flagged' some of this crap before now

I just hope those here invested in RWI have put 'stop loss' on their investment. No way SP can hold with such bad news.

We just got the update and wow its nothing short of crap. Rebased divi, debt bad, ATM problem no end in sight. Fire sale of parts of the business. Big hit from Interserve. Really could not be worse but who knows the SP may rise. My guess is it will 'tank' but who knows.

As for Interserve I've no idea if FCRM had work ongoing with them. Certainly hope not.

Maybe my comments were a bit negative but the use of the Bank Facility suggests pressure on cash flow etc. In this scenerio the divi could be rebased and if they do the SP would likely drop significantly. Dont have a problem using 'debt' to grow the assett base base but their comment on deferred contracts for Uni 'spooked' the market with no positives for 2019.
When you look at T Clark trading update you see how it should done.

Nice piece from 'businessgreen' if that was the source. Issue is that they had the benefit of being 'cash positive'. Now were told they have drawn 3m from the Bank Facility but this is not explaining their cash position relative to this drawdown. I accept they are investing to grow but adding little caveats on Uni growth prospects really is not helping the SP. I would really like to know their free cash flow position because this would give confidence in respect of the divi going forward. Basically the more they borrow the more risk to the divi that is the only factor stopping the SP falling further.

Not a good update really. Just a lot of 'ifs and buts' and the drawdown on the Bank Facility is worrying with cash outflows on the downside. Divi looks safe for now but watch to re-base to lower level. Cant pay high divi's if your using borrowed money for to long. The Uninn intergration is obviously causing hiccups and their not saying things will improve in 2019 so again a bit worrying issue. Hopefully todays drop will show a bounce but figure sub 30p for some time.

To many 'sells' showing on the volume side. A bit of a worry at these prices you have to guess someone is 'dumping' pre any news. Not crossover trades just auto trades by the Sell Side

Anyone know date for next trading update??

Todays pressure on the SP looks likely to continue as Just really is 'unloved' at present and major shareholders must be upset at the losses since the last trading update and Cap raise. I am 4sure but my views have not been issued as negative but disappointment at the way management handled the update. However way you look at it Just now loaded up with new debt that costs approx 30mill per annum. Ok at present their servicing this by cancelling the Divi but what happens if 'mortallity and property values' worsen. You can 4get divi for 2019 as their will be no 'cover' and the debts will still need to be serviced. Maybe I'm to gloomy but difficult to see sentiment changing in the near future. Just need to 'write' a lot of new business just to 'stand still' so I'm guessing the only positive option is a 'buy out' and if they do hit 60p you may get a 'take out' at 80p.

Where did the 60m number come from for 2019 revenue. If the 57m is lowering their own guidance then thats a negative. If margins are also pressured then there is downside risks to the SP on the 28th. Hope not but the markets are fickle and even good news gets hammered.