Member Info for HarChris

Seeing as Warren Buffet's fortune accumulates approximately $5b a year he earns an estimated $160 every second of his life... so it would be an almighty waste of time for him to bother picking up a fiver.

One thing I wouldn't underestimate is the visibility novacyt has amongst private investors - news spreads quickly... I am happy once again holding a few more shares than I plan to long term as I believe news like the DHSC dispute resolution will see the sort of 100% rise in the short term that we've seen in the past.

Even if it doesn't stick and retraces let's be the ones to bank some tidy profits!

Sadly I did my reducing at 300p as I was just so overexposed and it was causing me stress, only to see the share price rise another 50% in a week! And now we're back here again!

You win some you lose some.

Anyway it doesn't matter whether it's going to be valued at £500m in 3 months or £250m, what matters is will it be higher than today's paltry £115m valuation and the answer is very likely yes.

It depends on what you use as a barometer. If one were to look at this time last year, exactly 12 months ago, the share price was 22.6p giving a market cap of around £270m. At that time V205 and Fev were lower across all regions, China, US, Europe, and V205 in particular was considerably lower. Then you throw in the fact that the electrolyte plant was further from completion (there has been delays but not 12 months worth), adoption of vrfbs and talk of long duration energy storage was nothing like it is today and the pandemic was raging!

Obviously sentiment is at rock bottom right now but if BMN were able to command such a valuation then I have belief that they will be able to command that again and much more in today's more favourable environment.

There are however a couple of potential catalysts that might change that... one obvious one is the DHSC dispute resolution but also a clear and detailed post-covid path outlined with perhaps an acquisition to prove intent. If that were to happen I would be less convinced that any rise would be quickly quashed.

And both should be close.

I never said that I trade novacyt per se. I have been invested since March 2020 bar a period after the first DHSC dispute rns and then again with the follow up dispute rns. Since last January's results however I haven't felt confident that substantial rises would hold/push on so I took on a more risk averse strategy, selling a chunk of shares following each rise when I was happy with my profits. If (and they invariably did) the share price were to retrace I would buy them back. And then when I thought the share price was at a preposterous level (think November @220p) I would throw the house at it.

On the whole yes probably guesswork is closer to the truth than any real technical analysis or insight.

Yes and it has been for some time for this very reason. The share price really isn't all that important to them and especially not to a new CEO who is tasked with taking novacyt from a 'covid stock' to leading international diagnostics biz. My approach has been to try and second guess when David would reveal his hand and in all honesty I hoped it would be by November/December time but it isn't and it was always possible not to be the case.

Do I think there's a decent chance of him taking this company to a min £500m valuation and beyond? Yes, and that's why I'm still here with hopes of 100% returns and more. Will there be more weeks of silence and potentially falls in the short term? Certainly possible but trading on that hope is nothing more than guesswork at this stage.

DA won't care about a handful of PIs that are frustrated/angry/anxious about their investment, he will not be judged on the share price in the short term, he will be judged over a period of one or two years.

There will be a plan being put in place and whether or not the share price is £2, £3 or £4 before he starts showing his hand will make not a jot of difference in the grand scheme of things.

It's too late ValJu, it's already working its way through my digestive system!

I know it's immaterial in the grand scheme of things but undershooting guidance, even if small, will not be looked upon favourably given the circumstances.

Sonic I do agree with you on this. Not to say that results will be worse than expected but at this stage it doesn't look like there is going to be a rush to get in. Although a very different situation this year as we have guidance, the sharp decline on results day last year was ugly and will stick with many investors. Most now will see little reason to buy in before the results and only a bullish forward guidance for 2022/ acquisition news tacked on will see those on the sidelines miss out on the big gains...

I don't necessarily feel this way (hoping for £110m revenue) but I imagine many will.

That's my point CO, you're looking backwards with hindsight and saying you'd have made money selling on each rise, well duh yeah! You only won't have sold on each rise because we had momentum on those spikes and reason to believe there might be follow through (no jokes please). Then when the share has already started retracing it feels less satisfying/advantageous to sell.

I'm sure on the whole reducing somewhat on every meaningful rise probably works on AIM but I'd also hazard a guess that most folk who trade end up making a loss.

The problem is CO that trading missed opportunities only reveal themselves after the fact - for example I've made a good bit of money from my trading pot in the last six months but only because almost every rise in all the shares I play around with have failed to materialise into anything more - I haven't made money because I am particularly skilled at trading and would have missed some big returns if positive news had landed when I was out.

Unless you are a professional trader all it does is both minimise your potential loss and potential gain.

I take back my previous comment... what an inspired top up yesterday! I'm now up £9 on my £6.5k top up and I'm heading to my local cafe to treat myself to a flat white and croissant!

I wholeheartedly agree Big. On the one hand I feel a bit of an idiot for deciding to top up yesterday but on the other if the new CEO turns out to show event the slightest degree of competence then we will start getting news that excites the market and profit will be easily made from here.

The silence HAS to be part of a plan, it just has to!

The company went from loss making to posting a £130 post tax profit and someone thinks that's a profit warning!

I also topped up right at the end of the day Big - not sure what's going to stimulate the rise but having seen so many speculative AIM stocks crash in recent months I prefer the comfort of a company with almost half its mcap in cash.

And you've got to think with all this cash and the time and space the new CEO has taken that there is a plan being hatched behind the scenes - once it's shared momentum should build up nicely again.

Dragon's Den ventures are bog standard mom and pop inventions and businesses - hot sauce brands, gin subscription companies, specialist £5 building tools to sell en masse - so yes it would make for interesting television but not for the reasons you seem to think..

If an entity like MSTR become a distressed seller of bitcoin that would be pretty bad news for the BTC price.