Member Info for HarChris

HarChris, you mentioned back in October/Novemeber that you were willing to give DA a few more weeks, but if we didn't hear anything by then you were concerned/disappointed. Now you're not bothered. Strange.
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Well you can't accuse me of hypocrisy then as I've just stated I'm frustrated. I did sell a portion of my holding a little while ago for that exact reason, as I try to stick to my principles and follow up on my word however I'm still comfortable in holding the rest as the company is clearly in rude health financially.

My post was simply stating that none of this is that unexpected, the biggest disappointment for me is that this unprecedented global demand for PCR tests hasn't led to big contract wins or supernormal profits.

Directors do not care for the short term interest of shareholders unless those short term interests are also in their interests i.e bonuses linked to share price. We've all known for yonks that the business is in good health, we've known for yonks that there is no need to raise cash or do any placings and so the board is free to squirrel themselves away and focus on what they do care about, the future long term prospects of the company.

Whilst I'm as frustrated as the rest of you that we've received very little communication since DA has taken up his role I was also fully aware that this may turn out to be the case and so have no grounds to moan about it.

Fine Cindercone, if you feel that way don't invest and buy in in 2023 if the price is right - the rest of us see a big 2022 ahead and huge value at today's mere £120m valuation.

We saw a big rise from a low of about 220p thanks to the omicron variant blowing up and PCR testing going through the roof but sadly we received nothing from the company to suggest we are significantly benefitting from that so it's no surprise that we are heading south - expected the new man to take advantage of this but was wrong on this occasion.

I don't think this is the last we here of covid and I believe in the long term prospects so still holding.

ArgoBull, I merely picked up in your definitive claim that revenue will exceed current market cap 'in the coming few years, possibly sooner' - I'm not doubting that revenues will increase but I highly doubt to the level you're suggesting and it's certainly not certain!

My personal guess is Argo will see a run rate reached of about half that (£225m) over the next few years and if the profit margins are close to where they are now Argo will be valued much higher than it is today - for that reason I'm looking to start scaling back in with a plan to hold medium term soon.

It can go lower for the exact reasons it surpassed £3 last February - sentiment and therefore non stop buying/selling pressure.

I do think the odds of bitcoin going on another run in the next 12 months and hitting $100k are fairly high and if Argo meets its operational targets alongside, the SP would have a shot at hitting £3 again - but before that it's a case of finding the bottom.

ArgoBull although somewhat possible it's certainly far from definite that revenue will reach £450m in the next few years - you're talking 5 times the current yearly revenue run rate...

Surely if 3.7EH equates to just 200 coins by the end of the year that'll mean bitcoin has climbed substantially, roughly equal to the increase in difficulty... And if that were the case Argo would be looking at 200 coins mined a month at say $110k BTC so $22m revs per month. If you think that's how this will play out then it's a raging buy at this price (mcap £427m).

The only way to lose money buying in from here is Argo failing to deliver higher hash rate or BTC dropping to an unsustainably low level.

Well many of us on here thought the guidance might be upped from the original change in pcr testing for travel in about late November? Then you add on two to three weeks of record cases and testing and even to begin with many of us thought £100m was conservative.

So reasons to believe it could be £20m or more higher...

Does anyone know how cut and dry the law is around upgrading guidance? If we are about to post £130m in January for example would we be in trouble legally for not having updated guidance? Perhaps if at each step when the company reiterated guidance of £100m that was factual they might get away with not upgrading so close to the end of the year? There must be many incidences of companies beating guidance by 30%+???

Or is it almost certain now that revenue will come in at/around £100m?

Shedulike companies on AIM tend to swing wildly and fail to recognise long term projections, after all the majority of investors, for want of a better word, won't be holding in three months let alone three years. When momentum and excitement is with a company the share price can rise as much as 5, 10 times the fundamental value of the company and vice versa.

What matters right now share price-wise is the next bit of news and whether or not that is going to be viewed positively or negatively... my guess is that due to a lack of guidance upgrade up until now the market is expecting ~£100m revenue and for that to give the share price a knock.

Pre covid they were turning over around £12m with virtually no cash in the bank. Now with around £100m cash, an internationally recognised brand and partnerships, a global sales force, experienced heads on the board and millions spent on R&D already you'd think they'll be able to multiply that pre-covid figure many times over going forward wouldn't you?

eccles, the CEO of Bushveld Energy is also tasked with solving South Africa/the African continent's energy needs. Without doubt BMN are going to benefit from something like this.

If you can't look beyond the share price that's fine but for the rest of us that can there's a huge opportunity here.

So you're 100% invested in ISA and pension pot and yet don't believe the business model is sustainable LONG TERM?! Exactly why are you filling your ISA and pension pot with bitcoin miners then?!

Tiger 16 yesterday: 'Speculation in USA believe BTC will cross 35 k usd by tomorrow 6am .. massive sell off as the reach for 100 k predicted doesn’t look like it is ever happening… everyone jumping ship now'

100% (in)accurate record in tact.

I agree with you DRB. Fact is the market looks forward and currently it doesn't see novacyt being a £b enterprise and is sceptical about it becoming a £0.5b business. What we can say for certain is that over time the p/e value will increase... prior to the DHSC dispute, in early 2021, we saw a valuation of EBITDA x 3, now we're valued around EBITDA x 6, next year it will be over 10. Post/be on target for £40m EBITDA next year and we will see a minimum of ~£420m mcap/ 60% rise from today's levels. Personally I see that as a brilliant return.

The market is saying 'we'll believe it when we see it' so if invested we must put our faith in the company to deliver and sit and wait.

Hope you all have a wonderful christmas!

ArgoBull I was one of those with the finger over the buy button at 84p, ever so close to buying quite a large amount of shares only to hold off and set a buy limit a few pennies lower. All those with the conviction deserve the very possible big returns to come - happy christmas y'all!

Although much better and more accurate LFTs are now becoming available, in my opinion the damage has already been done in regards to their public reputation - the average person now orders a PCR test when they think they might have covid or when they need to know they are negative.

This won't change in my opinion and will keep PCR covid sales high for a long time to come.

What dilution are you referring to? In terms of financing they won't need to raise capital for some time and there's plenty that can increase the share price considerably in any intervening period.

Take what's gone at IES recently... share price fell to sub 75p on the 6th October, by the middle of November it was back over a pound and then on the 18th the placing was agreed at £1 a share - and that happened with full knowledge that a cash raise was needed in the immediate future.

They care a hellava lot more for shareholders than jelly11 does.