Member Info for HarChris

Agreed although looking at arbk finishing at 80p with BTC @$43k I've concluded that it's better to buy BTC directly over Argo currently.

The way I look at it is yes this is downtrending based on no news but news IS coming. It doesn't guarantee a reversal in trend but it offers an opportunity for it to occur. Going back to what Richard Leonard said on PI world last year we can expect ncyt to continue trading at a bare minimum of 2xcash - right now the mcap is £210m so the chance of the share price going much lower isn't very likely unless we are sprung a bad surprise in the results.

I'm not convinced this quiet period from the company is proof that David is no different to Graham. In fact I expected it to occur and for a line to be drawn between the last CEO and the new but thought most likely the news tap would be in full flow by now. Having said that the full year results make sense as the pivot, as the turning point when David's direction is revealed.

Personally I'm still very optimistic that a switch will be activated once these results are out the way and the vision for the company will be laid out with excitement returning. I'm optimistic that this will at the very least spike the price back up to the sort of £5 level on potential and positive strategic plans alone, giving even the likes of WBAFC a chance to bow out gracefully if they so wish.

I am confident that David was brought in to drive the company forward and attract IIs, something Graham wasn't capable of doing. He won't achieve that by simply sharing more covid deals with the market, by putting out more rns'... he will achieve that by convincing the market that he has a intelligible and cogent vision for steering novacyt beyond covid into a world leading diagnostics business.

Do you really believe for stock market is that rational?! You assume as bitcoin tumbles investors think 'right we best move all our money to the most efficient bitcoin miner'?

That sort of thinking comes later when sell offs have already taken place, when bottom fishers come out looking for value, not whilst panic has set in.

I'm glad for your sake you didn't follow your charts and sold most of your shares on the run to the 4.80 despite expecting the SP to rise to between 550-600p when @375p!

Sonic I've got no problem with you or your trading but very little of what you post stacks up under questioning. You claim now that you sold most on the last run to 4.80, ie before the 29th Nov, and yet your tweets would suggest otherwise...

29 Nov SP high of 497p
2 Dec SP has dropped to ~375p you tweeted 'BULLISH GARTLEY in PLAY looking to beat 550p then onto the 0.38 FIB at 600p.'
Day after day from here you tweeted positively about ncyt whilst the share price ranged from 300p and 370p. Still all the way into January, despite the share price dropping sharply until Jan 6th when you voiced some concern about the lack of communication from the BOD but hoped to see a bounce off support...
It wasn't until the 13th Jan that you tweeted confidently that the share price was heading down from here, at this point it was already 304p.

Anyway I hope EUA proves a good investment for you!

To prove this point it seems you've only very recently dumped your shares despite the price sliding for weeks on end now. It remains to be seen whether at least in this instance it was the right move.

I'm sure the pro day traders were selling in the high 3s not £3 flat.

You were throwing around ridiculous price targets just two months ago... I remember a target of £15 you had as recently as late November, Bullish Gartley and all... Now you've mentioned the possibility of 170p.

I can safely say your charting has not made you money on novacyt.

Self-fulfilling prophesy.

Anything else you'd like to tell us? Perhaps when you're next off to the the supermarket? Whether or not you fancy a move away from the city? Thinking of changing up your cereal routine?

Whilst to me Tay seemed genuine and to my eyes simply an intelligent, articulate private investor who noticed he could build a following and have some influence on the share price / perhaps be headhunted by the company (another guy from twitter moved to their marketing team I believe) I'll happily concede that I could have him completely wrong and his moves may have been cynical and calculated.

You write passionately about market manipulation and corruption and I applaud you for that, I just don't agree with the definitive language you often use.

It's an arrogant thing to claim and it's disappointing if he did say that but it was also probably true at the time and that's simply the nature of having a big following when a stock is 'hot'. The same happens with the bitcoin maximalists with large social media presence and other twitter accounts - lots of influence when things are good and the share price is rising and none when things turn south.

It's perfectly legal to build up a twitter following and promote the stocks you are invested in.

Bitcoin would have to rise so high so fast for nation states to be effectively priced out... and if that were to occur we'd not be talking mainstream adoption we'd be talking bitcoin more or less in the hands of a handful of multibillion entities and possibly another couple of hundred thousand citizens who moved early/risked the house on it.

If that were to be the case there would be little global utility for it anyway.

Haha I liked Tay and had many private chats with him on twitter and I can assure you I wasn't part of a secret ramping crew personally employed by Graham Mullis!

I did talk up the share at various points and was very optimistic in 2020 and of course things didn't turn out as hoped - but I'm sure many were genuine like me and simply got it wrong rather than being involved in a conspiracy.

Sure and people have the right to challenge you making claims of deception. He's not claiming any of the sort imo, he's saying that things will be looking up in 2022 as predicted by the broker SP Angel. Investor's Chronicle is a reputable publication and we were named as one of the biggest broker upgrades. Whilst this bb is so muted it's something to hold on to in the lead up to the trading update.

I've ready Agricore's post and there is no encouragement to buy bushveld shares, there's no hyperbolic language, there's nothing deceptive whatsoever. You seem to think it's a problem when users attempt to support their own investments.

We appreciate the time you've taken MrNaples to register an account today and support MrDribbles and WBAFC - it is most altruistic and kind of you.

'This time next year we may have £150m in the bank. Plenty of scope for post Covid investment in other diagnostic areas.'

How big would a company need to be to raise that sort of cash? Well from a placing at least an mcap of around £750m factoring in the discount to placees, fees @20% dilution, but more realistically you'd be looking at a £b+ company raising £150m. (Boohoo last year raised £200m for acquisitions whilst valued at over £4b, for example).

This is not small fry, this is a considerable war chest. Granted it's not quite £150m yet but when you factor in that our cash pile is AFTER huge R&D investment already and the money we may well generate from our supply chains and new partnerships already in place it really does highlight the auspicious opportunity ahead.

Oh and don't forget the very possible cash boost from the DHSC.

What I like about the silence is the line being drawn between the last administration and this one. If, and it still is a big if, following the full year results novacyt turn on the news tap and go on the offensive the market will light up and excitement will build rapidly. I could easily see bullish forecasts being thrown out once again, anticipation for the next bit of news, the next acquisition etc and the share price being back up in the 6s, the 7s, the 8s in no time.

Look at avacta, omega diagnostics and GDR. The market cap for the latter two isn't far off where it was pre-covid whilst avacta's is about 6 or 7 times higher once you factor in dilution and that's because they have technology with a fighting chance of revolutionising cancer/chemo treatment - in other words priceless. It is not a covid play but covid had the potential of funding their other much larger projects and so was important.

Novacyt is a covid play in regards to its valuation is based purely on the money it has made during this pandemic... however the market evidently recognises that all the progress and money made over the past two years counts for a lot, after all , the shares are still trading 20 times what they were pre-covid.

They achieved a miracle in 2020 being first to market with such a small team and budget so it now remains to be seen where they can go from here... and this is why I do not care about the current communication, the short term share price is meaningless right now, it's just noise. David and the board have an enormous task ahead of them and it won't be easy but they are well placed to take market share across the diagnostics sector and if they do I believe we could see the likes of £12 again within the next couple of years.

Maybe I'm looking at this with the luxury of hindsight but I think the truth is the share price had run a bit too hot up to that point and a £800m valuation was too high in the circumstances - still, prior to the dispute the shares were ranging between about 680p and 780p and that was at a time when we were coming out of what we thought might be the last lockdown with optimism that the vaccine rollout would bring a swift end to the pandemic...

I agree it's going to be extremely difficult to give accurate guidance for 2022 but we might get some guidance for covid alone (say £50m revenue) with the focus then on new non covid revenue streams to come online...

Let's not forget that profit making small cap diagnostics trade at approx 30 times earnings and that would equate to nyct producing just £7m profit in 2022...