Member Info for HarChris

'Why is it always the self-styled 'curious observers' who have 'no dog in this fight' that always seems to be THE most negative and frequent commentators?'

Who else is a curious observer with no dog in this fight? Chaebol shorts Argo, Hexam is invested, I have been in and out but generally bearish the past year (never shorted any share in my life). Where are all the curious observers? As far as I'm aware it's just me. And if I were to find a better forum to discuss all matters bitcoin and bitcoin mining I would.

It's not a conspiracy, nobody's paid, out of all the so called derampers only Chaebol will have made any money from Argo's demise. I just haven't lost tons like everyone else that's held all the way down from 200p to 6p.

Me, an expert? Far from it although I have little time for youtube influencers that many see as experts (they're not, they're youtubers). As I've stated many times I use this forum to learn as much as possible about Argo, about bitcoin and about bitcoin mining. I have my own personal takes on each and have spent a lengthy time learning about other miners which I choose to share on here but consider my opinion merely one of many. I have time for anyone, positive, negative and anywhere in between that can construct a coherent argument and debate sensibly but less time for those that don't in anyway understand argo, bitcoin or the mining space and absolutely no time for those that are ****y on top of lacking any understanding.

My opinion is always consistent (until we receive new information) and so it remains that the recent news is very good for Argo and gives them a fighting chance of recovery if bitcoin starts to recover and management get all the big decisions right going forward. Until then I see no argument for them being valued any higher than 5p/£24m but I also know that the stock market is far more complicated than that and 'value' is a rather abstract and subjective concept... so where the share price goes next is anyone's guess and for whatever reason right now Arbk is looking stronger than Arb LSE.

What total nonsense, I have no dog in this fight and am happy for others to make money. If it had dropped considerably (all things being equal) I'd have probably put a very small amount on but I don't generally invest in companies I think will no longer exist in two to three years.

I hope it keeps going up and I am merely a curious observer with investments elsewhere in the space.

This has always been a tough hold but the thesis has remained the same - despite the lack of strong management over the past few years there are no cash needs whatsoever, no debt, market cap below cash level (by some distance, previously) and whilst there is a dispute with the DHSC going on there's plenty of reasons to believe that novacyt will come out on the better side. It was always a waiting game with the odds of a reversal far greater than that of wipeout.

Most long holders are well down still but a 90% jump from the 52 week low hit in November is satisfying.

If bitcoin doesn't reach the sorts of levels that most are hoping for ($250K+) then yes, very likely MSTR will eventually go to zero. The best thing to follow going forward is not whether or not MSTR sell bitcoin (they won't, they'll hold until they are forced to) but whether or not Michael himself starts selling his own MSTR shares. Most of his net wealth is tied up in MSTR stock so I would be totally unsurprised if we start seeing him sell at a regular intervals (under the guise of 'tax reasons'.)

Conviction would be himself buying bitcoin or buying more MSTR stock, not buying bitcoin off the back of shareholder equity raises.

frothing at the mouth* CONVICTION!*

Sorry for the typos. Back to Argo... sadly not following the US price today, it's probably not helping that BTC has edged lower.

Last comment on this from me:

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/09/09/microstrategy-files-for-stock-offering-of-up-to-500m-in-part-to-buy-additional-bitcoin/

Old news but looks like when the time comes MSTR will simply raise a ton of money to increase liquidity whilst also buying more bitcoin to boot. It kicks the can down the road for sure and will be shi* for shareholders but it's certainly good for bitcoin short-medium term and will get the bitcoin fan boys frothing at the mount and screaming CONVINCTION!!! (when in reality they have no choice and shareholders will be shafted).

So yeah to sum up there is no threat of being margin called, that is not in anyway an issue right now. In the past two years they raised a ton of cash at something like $600 a share (so it's shareholders taking the hit there) and the convertible notes are at 0% and near 0% interest so all good there.

The biggest risk at the moment is that they must be nearly out of cash. By my estimations (assuming breakeven for the software business) they have about $25m which doesn't give them much of a runway left. If the software business is losing money they'll be needing to raise in the new year but they are also at 2 year lows in regards to share price so we either they issue shares at a steep discount (bad for MSTR) or sell some of their bitcoin. It won't be the latter as it will without doubt create major headlines and cause panic selling of bitcoin which would devalue their business significantly (seeing as it is basically a bitcoin holding company) so expect painful dilution during 2023.

The only way around this is the software business picking up and turning a solid profit or bitcoin recovering.

This is the best thread regarding MSTR: https://twitter.com/blockworksres/status/1595811891409915904

This quote is important: '12/ MSTR holds a $67M cash and cash-equivalents balance, which should allow them to service their debt over the next 6-12 months. There is no immediate threat to their BTC treasury.'

They've now eaten considerably into that $67m so if the software business continues to lose money over the next six months they will definitely need to raise funds, either by selling bitcoin or an equity raise. It's not looking rosy for shareholders unless bitcoin recovers before their next funding round...

As a holder of three bitcoin miners now I don't like what's happening at mstr and it does concern me short-medium term too now rather than just long term.

I'm torn on this. On the one hand it's certainly not a big deal, they sold some for tax purposes and then later bought back more. On the other hand Saylor has said on numerous occasions they will never ever sell their bitcoin HODL... he didn't say that they'd never sell any unless there were tax benefits, he didn't say under certain conditions, he was unequivocal.

They used up most of their remaining cash reserves to buy after their sale and clearly wanted to make sure the headlines focused on the fact they've increased their holding rather than focus on their first ever sale but still, it makes me think when the time's right for MSTR to start dumping they'll do it.

MSTR is a bigger threat to bitcoin than an asset at this point.

You can call it pumps if you want, you can say this has risen without substantive news but the market cap was 50% of the cash level so all this is a rise towards the cash level with general sentiment returning. It doesn't necessarily need big news to reach cash level...

He predicted a 30% drop today.

Brecon what causes someone to ask the same question daily even after getting an answer? Stupidity I assume.

I've told you why I personally post here many times. I'm knowledgable about the company and believe I have something to add, I'm interested in the space as a whole and it's become a decent place to discuss all things bitcoin mining, I'm open to the idea of investing in Argo given the right factors coming together and most of us it's fun challenging clueless idiots like you.

I did say I wouldn't reply to your other account (Bitcoinedd for those that don't know) so slightly going against my word by replying to this alias.

I think we’re at about China $40/kg, Europe $37/kg and US $43.5/kg.

Thanks for that AB but does secondary market necessary mean second hand or would the purchase of new in box machines from Argo (i.e not the manufacturer) be classed as secondary market?

Either way we're now talking something like $12-$13m to build out 1EH/s, an incredibly low price compared to a year ago... there's going to be a huge divergence in hash rate across the space in six months time.

I was talking industry level, not 3 in the garage or however many your mate sold.

For example Argo sold 3,843 new-in-box Bitmain S19J Pro machines for $5.6m, about $14.8/TH. I wondered how much cheaper it would be for that sort of amount second hand... of course there are lots of factors at play with second hand machines (age, condition etc) but just wondered if anyone had a ballpark figure.

I was expecting over 14EH/s of machines to hit the market soon following Corz' demise but now it looks like they are going to stay afloat for a while longer thanks to their dilutive restructuring.

‘I would if they have the spare funds, I would buy second hand miners. They are going very cheap at the moment.’

Are they? Where could one buy, say, 5000 second hand Bitmain S19s, who’s selling and how much are they selling for?

'So you missed the boat.
It was under 5p not long ago idiot.'

The last time the share price was under 5p there was no rescue package and PW himself had told us that bankruptcy was a very real possibility. I am not a gambler like the many on here that just punts in the complete dark so I did not see value <5p PRIOR to this news. I do now and so if the share price were to drop as low as that now, POST rescue package news, I would consider buying some Argo shares.

You're thick as two planks so after this I'm not replying again to you, you don't deserve a response to your nonsense posts.

No it's just that even the slightest bit of nuance is lost on you.

These forums are for anyone that has interest in a stock. I'm not invested but after this deal I will potentially buy some shares at the right price, anything below 5p will interest me. In the meantime I will call out idiots like you that haven't got a clue, have nothing to offer in terms of analysis, make ridiculous predictions that don't even come close and boast about catching the bottom at 3p when you probably 'caught' 200p, 150p, 100p. 80p 50p.

And we all know what your original account is, personally I think you're the sad one for having to make another account to hide behind (and still not smart enough to make it less obvious).