Member Info for HarChris

One minute you're predicting 50p the next you're claiming i've missed the boat when I can still buy at 5.8p.

Make it make sense.

Yesterday with the share price at 7p you said this 'No share availability. Everyone hoarding for 50p+' whilst I predicted the share price to be around 5p within a week or two. It's 5.85p currently, whether or not it hits 5p is irrelevant, it's obvious that those that called 50p are simply trying to deceitfully encourage others to buy for their own benefit or their reading of the rns (and the current market) is well off the mark.

I think it's probably the latter with you but either way you're probably best ignored.

You had almost every penny of your portfolio in a company that had announced that they were very close to having to cease operations. You relied on a total unknown (management managing to secure funding) and on a management team that you yourself consider sneaky liars to either lose all of your money or double up (though obviously not really doubling up as your average wasn't 3p).

That is no better than sticking all your money on black at the roulette wheel.

Great, 20% would be a brilliant day, most AIM companies are hitting new lows at the moment.

If the share price rose 200% in a day and dropped back down to 100% you'd say ha, fallen by half. It's a shame that you always see the glass half empty rather than half full but it's you that has to deal with that negativity day in day out, we just witness flashes of it on here.

The rest of us can be happy that the worst of the lows seem to be behind us.

You're a gambler that has chased their losses all the way down from the highs, of course at some point you're going to catch a temporary bottom.

A helpful and detailed analysis as ever from BigBiteNow: https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1608388164523106308

In order for a conversation to be worth it one needs to be able to admit when they've made a bad call and have rationale and logic that is consistent. PI argued hard that Argo was deeply undervalued because Helios was an asset worth far more than the likes of me and Hexam were giving it credit for and regularly quoting the asset figure from the interims ($303m total assets). Now we know that the total assets are worth no more than about $80m which is a huge shrinking of the business and yet there's no acknowledgement of this... instead somehow it's not a problem that the asset that he claimed set Argo apart and was worth far more being sold for far less is something to brush under the carpet?

'We wont hear from PI100 now as he / she will crawl back under stone now that the SP is shooting up ......'

Negative people thrive off negativity. I'm sure PI will throw a few mixed messages in like 'great, only down 80% now' and then waiting til the share price looks to have topped out before adding 'this a pump and dump?'

Took the morning off staring at the share price... well I didn't expect that!

"they have a very strong balance sheet" - Really? Then what's your idea of a weak one? By my reckoning assets are less than liabilities which doesn't sound strong to me at all let alone 'very strong'.

Many companies have net liabilities but they are either growing rapidly (and hence in time will see their assets overtake their liabilities) or are profitable (and again, are increasing their assets relative to their liabilities through the profits they are making). Argo has no path to growth (they are doing the opposite, selling machines previously and now selling their main facility) and no path to profitability and hence long term their odds of survival are slim. Short-medium term they are now exceedlingly likely to survive.

"the same folks that were saying this has no chance of surviving" - hope you're not including the likes of me and HC in that as it would be a straight out lie.

I'm never deceiving and am transparent at all times. Very recently, for the first time I thought the odds of Argo failing within the year had increased beyond 50/50 and so I've acknowledged what a good deal I think this is. That doesn't in my eyes make them worth £100m or whatever others are claiming but it does mean there's value at a certain price.

From a fundamental standpoint this is a no-go really, we've learnt how competitive the space is and how low barriers to entry are so any miner with high debt, no HODL and low liquidity is going to almost certainly go to the wall eventually.

However, fundamentals are really not all that important in this space (besides being strong enough to survive) unless you're a bit clueless and consider this a long term hold. Argo is very likely to make it through the next year now, when/if the next bull run arrives for a good three months nobody is going to be consider the longer term debt issues, they are just going to go risk on and punt the lowest priced miners.

If I were interested in speculative medium term trades I'd be tempted by Argo around this price and certainly below 5p.

Why discuss other stocks on this forum?

Well I think it's more useful to have proper conversations about the space than all the pointless ramping that went on this morning, all of which you never complained about. Was it 10p, 15p or even 50p predicted today?

I reported you earlier for talking about Corz, very rude.

But anyway enough of this, if I am to buy anymore miners in the next few months most likely I'll add to my Riot holding rather than buy Mara. Low debt, high HODL, second highest coins mined per month, massive facilities and room for expansion, huge amount of cash on hand etc

Lower reward than Mara but in this climate it's arguably the smarter choice to go lower risk lower reward.

No not at all precious, you've got to remember that these miners are more than just their HODL, otherwise Argo would be zero at this point and so would many others. So in additional with Mara you include the future coins that they are able to HODL and get to around 15000 BTC by mid 2023 - if bitcoin were then to reach $60k they would have enough to cover the debts in full, not $75k. They also have other assets (significant amount of machines) and cash on hand.

And anyway as a trade Mara spikes the moment bitcoin shows any life, so no, buying in around here I would be doing so in order to hopefully catch a 20% rebound in Jan but if not I would be happy to wait it out longer and sit on paper losses in the meantime.

I haven't bought in, I said I'm starting to get interested at the current valuation. Their debt is almost entirely long term, due 2026 or later. There's plenty of time for bitcoin to recover, for their share price to rally, to raise money off the back of bitcoin rising and sentiment increasing, by selling some of their bitcoin etc to manage that debt.

'HarChris, where do you think BTC price will be in the near future?'

I've long predicted that the downturn will continue into the back end of 2023 with a few relief rallies in between. I'll stick with that.

The point is that bitcoin could jump to $50k tomorrow and it would make very little difference to Argo besides generating a small amount of cash (that will instantly reduce as other miners with the means expand rapidly and push difficulty higher). That cannot be said for other miners that hold bitcoin or have expanded rapidly over the past year and have brought costs right down.

Not me personally just yet preciousmaj but you pay your money and take you chances. They are valued at $350m currently and their assets will dwarf their liabilities if bitcoin hits the heights many think it will.

Or you can wait and buy them after bitcoin's appreciated and pay 5 times more.

'Whether you buy or sell makes no difference. The price is still going up.'

We shall see. I think this settles around 5p over the next week.