Member Info for HarChris

If it's looking like there's a chance a restructuring can be sorted that allows Corz another six months or so mining then it's certainly worth keeping a very close eye on bitcoin and jumping in if bitcoin starts to look perky as the shares could go ballistic with a $35m mcap starting point. A bull run starting in early 2023 (which I doubt but isn't unreasonable) would certainly offer them a chance of medium term survival.

I won't jump in like you did intraday yesterday but I'm sure they'll be many opportunities after sharp, acute drops to catch the right side of a 50-100% move.

'May be I’m missing something. Corz files for
Bankruptcy and It fly’s'

You are missing something, yes. The share price was $0.20 before the chapter 11 filing then dropped 75% yesterday to $0.05. Today it rebounded but as of this moment it's still over 50% down from pre market yesterday, at $0.09. So no definitely not flying since the filing.
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I appreciate the kind words DS but don't really have time this evening besides a cursory glance over at Tekmar, it's not a company i'm familiar with. Certainly good news it sounds like in a buzzy sector (renewables) but this market is a very difficult one to cut through. I tend to find the initial pumps (for want of a better word) peak during the second business day and if there's legs you often see it push on again a few days later after a fairly significant retrace. You're also helped here by it starting at just £4.2m this morning which is attractive to the traders.

I would assume there's funding hurdles to get over though first which will very much limit any rally (in this market rationality tends to prevail and frenzied rallies are rare) so after missing the 107% rise today and without time to do further research it's one i'll pass up on, but can't offer anymore insight than that currently i'm afraid.

All the best to you Kaeren and everyone else still clinging on here!

Merry Christmas.

I'd back up a bit Will. The threat of failing to make the Orion debt repayments in November of next year is the main cause in my opinion. The worsening macroeconomic picture and especially the energy crisis (and steel) in Europe had investors fleeing and assuming that BMN would fail to generate enough cash to repay in full and in a high interest rate environment would be punished in any renegotiation.

The price of vanadium has however held up excellently so the main threat now to meeting that obligation is the major power outages in South Africa. If Fortune works around the load shedding at Vanchem, secures new power arrangements and instills investors with confidence that 2023 will be highly profitable then the breaks should be let off the share price and we should be easily back around 15p.

Cineworld, Argo and now Corz, I see a pattern PI.

Despite holding on as long as I did my mining buys are all down now:
Bitfarms 18%, Riot 3.5% and Hut8 3.5%. Rather tempted by Mara but probably going to sit that out and see where things lie in a month or so now, could get a lot worse :/

Good luck, let's see how you do from 17.3 then! I was very tempted on open again but far too risky at 250% up on the day for me.

Meanwhile Mara's gone <$3.50, really is being hammered.

Tell us before you do it rather than after in future, it’s much more interesting to follow that way! ;)

'HC, the creditors have to be able to get their money back, by pulling the plug, they will only get a tiny fraction back.'

There's still a fair bit of value in their six data centres and 14.5EH/s self mining fleet, not $1.2b but possibly half that.
I'm sure the first-in-line creditors will be fine but if the last-in-line are throwing more money at them I guess they can wait a little bit longer before pulling the plug (and you never know re bitcoin suddenly recovering).

What price are you holding out for PI? I tried to buy a small amount just before close at 5 cents but I couldn't, always a decent chance of a jump after a 75% drop!

That's the thing, if bitcoin now heads lower (say $14k) then not only do debt repayments need to be paused, not only do large loan due dates need also to be ignored but Corz will also need funding just to cover the cash burn on top.

There must be a point in which the creditors think enough is enough.

Plenty of new 104 week lows being hit right now.

If not most certainly about $400m+ or so of the debt is due within 12 months, that's an enormous amount when you consider the market cap is $20m!!!

And yeah I also briefly bought Corz in the middle of 2022, before I'd done enough research. I got lucky and managed to sell for a profit on a spike in the high 2s and then turned bearish after - they weren't looking too bad until it became clear that this bear market isn't ending anytime soon (from Sept onwards).

At $17k they generate about $5m a month cash I believe and their current monthly repayments are $17m - so at this bitcoin price they make $5m (if debt repayments are paused) or burn $12m a month if not. So yeah they'll keep going.

They've also got massive loans that are due to be repaid within, I think, six months but again that'll all have to be dismissed to keep them from going under.

Hexam, to be honest I don't necessarily think they're going down just yet, we might see billions of shares issued at 5 cents that keeps them afloat for a little longer.

More than anything I think I'm just frustrated as someone invested in the space (Riot, bitfarms and now Hut8) - it is incredibly unhealthy for bitcoin and damaging to other miners in the space to prop up the weakest (and by far the biggest) like this... everyone will eventually lose out and it keeps the margins tight for all the miners in the meantime. Additionally it's 50 bitcoin that without doubt is to be dumped on the market daily.

I recently invested in some miners based on their ability to compete for distressed assets in the months ahead, that might not be happening now as Corz are kept on life support.

This is never going to be a high margin business, it may never even be profitable (shareholders absorbing all the losses via tactical bull market placings). Those carrying a lot of debt, like Argo, realistically can only ever pay it back if they are holding significant amounts of bitcoin. We are merely fourteen or fifteen months away from the next halving, at that point margins are going to be squeezed even tighter and the ability to accumulate bitcoin will be much harder.

So muddling through 2023 won't be enough to ever get Argo out of this hole, they need to be able to accumulate bitcoin to some degree prior to the next halving - I find that hard to imagine even if they just about survive through 2023.

~$1.2b debt and $17m monthly debt repayments for equipment running at a big fat loss and needing to be completely replaced in a few years time is totally untenable.

I'll move on now from Corz but I have called it from about $1.50 to $0.05 so I guess I feel my opinions on this particular subject hold weight! Same as Chae does for Argo.

Nah, I was going to at $0.24 but decided shorting wasn’t for me, on many levels. Will also prob try to catch some spikes before it goes to zero for a bit or casino fun.

I wouldn't read too much into Corz still continuing to mine. They are just about cash generative at this level so the creditors benefit from continued operation for the time being til the administration is complete.

It's a bit like those on here saying last week 'if Corz is dead why haven't the creditors moved? Why aren't they in chapter 11?'

Patience.

Fortune favoured the nimble, I too made a successful trade on that first sesh but I was in and out and left it from then on. Any 'braveness' after that would have any profits wiped out and some.

Easily turning a profit in every market now - these Europe rises have a tailwind behind them, bodes well for 2023.

14 cents was pre market pre B Riley proposal. 30 cents was the cheapest entry and it's already 5 cents two days later.

Fortune favoured the brave hehe