Member Info for HarChris

Neil, the likes of Mara have $900m debt but there's a major, major difference... they own bitcoin. And not just a few but 12000 bitcoin. And so even though this sector is unlikely to ever be a highly profitable one, they are able to pay back their debt with their HODL in the future, they are able to borrow against it, they have assets that can appreciate immensely in the future.

Those that have sold all their bitcoin, are making a loss and have debt are in a wee bit of trouble.

This BB is back to baseless ramping again pre market to encourage others to buy, very ugly to see.

Nobody questioned yesterday whether the deal was going to go through or not so this news isn't particularly exciting but still, it's obviously positive to have completed successfully.

I have Saylor/MSTR as near the top of the risks that could prevent a further bull run in bitcon ever occurring. They have now used the majority of their cash on hand to buy more bitcoin to cover this initial sell for tax purposes and are now left with very little cash - any downturn in their software business (and we are entering a recession after all) and MSTR will be forced to either raise more cash through a lowball placing or start dumping bitcoin.

I thought the news today was as good as it could be but I'm simply responding to your comment with relevant information. You are saying surely some out there see a future because the share price has doubled today and I'm giving you an example of another bitcoin miner that has literally experienced that and far more (a rise of 270%) that then saw its share price completely collapse within a week.

I think that's useful knowledge to be armed with.

Possibly but Corz released restructuring news a few weeks ago. The share price went from 14 cents to 52 cents and everyone was saying the exact same thing, surely a near 300% rise proves that the market loves the news and there's a bright future for them and further rises to come? Well no, a few trading days later and it's at 9 cents.

Sometimes a doubling of the share price is simply a pump and dump. Not saying this is but it's certainly a possibility, the rest of the week's price action will be telling.

And to act like my comments somehow have lost people money when a) I'm never been definitive about anything and merely talk in likelihood and probabilities and b) have leant towards bearishness with Argo from 35p.

On the way to zero there are always spikes but there's going to be no one that watches a share fall 97% before jumping in and timing a 100% rise, be real.

I'm talking about Mara.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-28/us-to-require-negative-covid-tests-for-travelers-from-china

Yeah, Stnz bear in mind my $140m debt figure was taken from the interims which is quite out of date now, but of course as they never put out a Q3 that's the best we had - since then to today they had been paying off some of that debt through bitcoin HODL sales.

I think if it keeps falling with BTC hanging around $16.7k then the risk is worth it, their bitcoin HODL is valued at almost $200m as of today for starters and their debt is mostly long term debt. There's no getting around the fact that they are dropping far harder and faster than most other miners though, 47% in just a month. I think investors are starting to ask 'are these miners ever going to be highly profitable and if not, which are likely to fail to ever repay their debts in the future?' Obviously Mara with a total debt of about $900B has potential issues further down the road. For comparison with a similar sized miner, Riot, they have $140m debt and have net cash of $85m.

Having said that as long as bitcoin turns in the next 12 months so will sentiment and the long term debt will suddenly become far less of an issue hence I'm starting to see value here.

Yeah sounds about right to me.

On a different note I've been rather interested in the recent price action. I'm far from a conspiracy theorist but remember last Friday Arb share price rose about 35% (early LSE close) and the price closed in the US at 4.5p UK equivalent (essentially a 50% move that day). Definitely looks like insider info got leaked now...

What on earth are you two talking about? 'Seem to get one at the end of Jan every year' says PI... please tell me you understand that what we got last January was simply the full year trading statement which is standard and a requirement for all listed companies.

And yes we will get another this year too.

I'm happy to have a conversation with cindercone, I see value in challenging posters that don't agree with you unlss they are writing complete gobbledygook.

The one big unknown at the moment is the load shedding situation, we don't know how that's going to impact next year. Parking that aside we are now approaching the position we longed to be approaching, entering 2023 in a position to generate significant cash. $30/kgV breakeven is realistic next year and we currently have the US at $43/kg, China $39/kg and Europe $36.25, something like that. We also sell nitrovan at a premium so as far as we've been made aware next year is looking highly profitable - 5200mtV (midpoint 5000-5400mtV target) at just over $40/kgV (average across our markets) gives profit before tax in the region of $50m - that is virtually unheard of for a company already trading at 50% of its Net Asset Value and merely valued at $75m.

Clearly the market doesn't trust BMN to deliver but with so much of the risk already being priced in we should acknowledge that with every daily V rise BMN becomes that little bit more derisked and the risk/reward down here becomes ever more attractive.

Firstly you're including all of Orion's debt there, long term debt is not an issue, only the short term due in 2023 of which in total we need to repay ~$40. I have $30.5/kg as breakeven, 5100mtV production in 2023 and 35% of that being Europe which would take profit from $892k for the year to $9.8m.

We are also likely to finish the year with around $12m cash so let's say we need $28m cash generation through 2023 - if profit (before tax) is $9m extra (extrapolating out for the year) then that's highly significant. US of course, as things stand, would deliver the rest.

I did point out that the price action wasn't positive a few hours ago. You look at Corz and realise that if there's going to be a pump it's going to happen on day one or two - dropping gradually for most of today suggests there really isn't much appetite here and many traders dumped on the morning spike.

At 8p earlier I said this will likely be closer to 5p by next week - it might actually be as early as tomorrow.

These V rises are especially significant because there were fears that the impending recession + energy crisis in Europe + continual lockdowns in China could potentially lead to a sharp drop in V, to as low as <$30/kg. To instead see it hold firm initially and now start to push higher and higher is worth celebrating.

Next year is a crucial one for BMN. Being the year where capex is being largely paused and cash generation is the primary focus we badly need V to stay well above the breakeven level. And so far so good, we are starting 2023 in a very good place.

I don't need glasses, you were clearly playing down the impact that V rises have - in late February the markets took a tumble across the board and yet Bushveld rose 65% in a month, that's SOLELY because of the V rise. Yes it didn't last but neither did the high vanadium prices.

And it's boll*** to say that a rise like this in Europe is insignificant. Currently we have a looming debt due November 2023, a debt that is weighing heavily on the share price. Europe has risen from $31/kg (likely around breakeven) to $36/kg - solid profitability. We were already highly profitable in the US so now we're looking at profits across all our markets.

If you don't believe going from breakeven in our second biggest market to profitable is important then fine, I do. And if V goes even higher then it starts to put the 'debt situation' to bed, either because we will be able to pay Orion in full come next year or because the shortfall will be small enough to give us a far stronger renegotiation hand.

Also Cindercone claims that last year the rise in V had barely any impact on the bushveld share price, well it did... we saw a rise from ~ 8.8p to 14.5p (about 65%) which included Duferco dumping about 30-35 million shares in the process - without Duferco selling tons at the same time we would likely have topped 20p.

I don't see this as any different than Corz - anyone buying in on the first trading day after the restructuring news is down hugely unless they sold out pretty much immediately - from a high of 52 cents less than 10 trading days ago to 9 cents today.

My guess would be Argo's peak will be today.

It's nonsense to say that V rises will have a negligible effect, they are the single most important factor when it comes to driving the share price. It's fair to say that they are alone are never enough (unless the rise is huge) but it's a major factor that is out of BMN's hands so to see V rising is highly significant.

We do of course have to now wait to see that production is on track, that we will be able to produce 5000-5400mtV and that costs are where we expect them to be (and hence big profits in 2023). Worst case scenarios are priced in at 4.9p so to see V rising (from a reasonable base) is excellent news.