Member Info for HarChris

It really wouldn't matter in the short term for Saylor if bitcoin went sub $10k, the HODL isn't doing anything whatsoever, it's already done its job (boosted the share price in the bull run, allowed them to raise a $b off investors, got them incredible long term convertible bond deals etc) . At the very worst they would have to sell 5% or 10% to keep the lights on and sure sentiment would tank, the headlines would be ugly and the share price would go much lower but they wouldn't be in anyway distressed.

It's a whole different situation from 2024 onwards though. Saylor can't afford another bitcoin bull market to come and go without either raising tons more money to pay off what will be debts due two years later and that will need to be done off the back of shareholders again or through selling bitcoin.

If he starts dumping bitcoin in the next bull that will have a major drag on the price, if he doesn't they're almost certainly going to find themselves in trouble and eventually go under - lose/lose

'12k really sorts out the boys from men.'

Agree in part... not an issue really for MSTR (besides having to sell small amounts of their 132k bitcoin stack to fund any funding issues) but certainly tests a couple of the top miners I mentioned. Not Riot whatsoever though and Hut8 would merely need to sell a chunk of their HODL to cover the difference. The likes of bitfarms and clsk would struggle if difficulty doesn't fall comparatively (which I imagine it would).

The rest with a weak balance sheet would be toast.

In a similar vein MicroStrategy is not a very risky play right now. MSTR (along with the big publicly listed miners) raised so much in the bull market that they are able to comfortably survive through this bear market. For them the risks however do ratchet up if they continue buying more bitcoin and if bitcoin were to go lower, or if they push their cash position to the edge and then the software side of the business goes south.

Same with the top 5 or 6 miners, all are fine as things stand, the risk ratchets up though if any take on more risk (i.e draining liquidity to continue building through the bear market) and then bitcoin were to go lower, to say $12k.

With MSTR (and many of the miners)... the long term is a completely different story with humungous debts coming into play from 2025 onwards. Bitcoin really needs to play ball if any of them are to be successful long term.

Some on here are exaggerating how hard it is for most of these miners to survive the next twelve months. The simple checks are these:
(i) liquidity vs short term debt and (ii) cash costs.

Many of the miners are able to still generate cash at current bitcoin prices and those that definitely can't, like Mara, have far greater liquidity than short term debt (virtually all debt is long term).

Unless bitcoin tanks from here or there are some serious company specific disasters then the likes of clsk, mara, riot, bitfarms, hut8 are all surviving the next twelve months with ease. Heck at this rate even Argo and Corz are going to!

The way I read it the debt is not transferring over and hence it stays with Battery Minerals...

I am not buying Argo at this price when I have significant cash to buy other miners which are relatively cheaper by a country mile, what is so hard to understand? If argo was suddenly below 5p I'd consider it but I'm not going to get caught near the top of a sentiment driven rally.

And PI please explain how bitfarms will go under when they've brought their cash costs down to $14300? That means they are *generating* cash, not burning it at the current price of $16700 a bitcoin.

It would take bitcoin going far lower or electricity surging to put them under the cosh. Not impossible but unlikely imo. And even if that were to happen I think difficulty would finally fall enough to give bitfarms some breathing space.

How many accounts do you have posting literally the same stuff, word for word?!

Whilst I don't agree with much you're saying PI I firmly believe that the recent deal was as good as it could have been given the circumstances and it's a tremendous result for those holding, even if only to get out at a higher price.

I doubt the company will be in great shape in a few years time but obviously for the first few weeks after the news the medium-long term matters not, we're in a post recovery deal pumpy period and so anything can happen.

And absolutely no way are Argo in a better position than Bitfarms. Argo had to sell all their HODL and their largest asset in order to stay in business, Bitfarms had to sell the majority of their HODL and issue some shares (which they did at a far higher share price than today and hence minimised dilution). In the meantime they have increased their mining figures from 301 in January to 496 by the end of the year, Argo has gone from 172 to most likely 200 this month. That's quite stark.

Both have had a bad year but only one of them is in a position to thrive over the next two years.

To me being forced to flog your prized asset, the asset that you've raved about for a year and have described as the future of your company, is a sign of distress.

Argo are no longer going out of business but they are a far smaller company with far less growth potential because of the events of the past twelve months. That is not yet true for most of the miners and certainly not to the degree that it applies to Argo.

Corz I agree is in the worst shape of all.

You can't seem to understand the very basic concept of changing opinion based on new information. I've been positive about the recent restructuring news ever since it landed but I still don't think Argo is worth more than 5p (based on current bitcoin price and relative to other miners) and I'm not interested in second guessing short term sentiment.

If bitcoin does rally Argo will rise, obviously, but so will all miners and I suspect some of them will rise much higher.

The Q3 balance sheet showed $82m in short term liabilities, they've had to focus on bringing this right down otherwise they could find themselves in an Argo/Corz situation. Since the start of October they've raised cash from their ATM offering and reduced their HODL from 2500 to 400, so now the next quarterly update will show very low debt remaining.

Not ideal but they've acted early enough to weather any further storms in the next 12 months and will probably be able to build the HODL again gradually from here through 2023.

Relatively speaking there is no question that Argo is the most overvalued miner as of this moment but it makes sense, they've been rescued from the abyss and therefore have sentiment on their side.

Fundamentals don't matter in the short term though and if bitcoin were to show some strength (nasdaq looking strong) then it goes higher from here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0j-11H2FulM&t=422s the reverse split isn't an issue.

I've got some bitfarms, whilst they've certainly got their timing wrong on numerous occasions (bought 1000 bitcoin in December 2021 @ $43k bitcoin then dumped them lower for example) they're valued at just $90m now. Pretty damn low when you compare it to their book value of $260m.

Compare that to Argo which right now is $43m... bitfarms 4.5EH/s, their own facilities, the most efficient miner consistently with cash costs right down to $14300.

It's that time of the month where bitfarms puts out their operational update and Argonauts only have to wait another 9-10 days ha... back to October difficulty level as we already pretty much knew.

Bitfarms have joined many of the others in pretty much selling the rest of their bitcoin holdings, in their case there was lots of short term debt that needed eradicating. I know the effect of miner selling pressure is overexaggerated but still, that's a thousand less in the hands of miners to dump on the market.

The stockpile is a crucial buffer against any potential difficulties that the Eskom load shedding may present in 2023. With V increasing we could miss that 5000-5400mtV by a long shot and still easily make the Orion repayment next year.

Risks remain obviously but they are significantly priced in at 5p and the higher V goes the more those risks shrink.

SNG closed the previous trading day at 36.5p then hit a intraday high of 240p, closing at 190p. I reduced my holding by a third just before close that previous day!

I don't think that's possible to determine from these shipments to the US alone, we can however conclude that significant quantities are heading to the US, the market fetching the highest prices - could be some of the extra inventory being sold which would make the cash position look incredibly healthy come end of Jan results...

If you'd bought a few shares last week instead of spending all your time spamming the board at the very least you'd have the option to *dump* tomorrow for 120% profit.

I know this might sound hypocritical coming from me as I talk about other bitcoin miners regularly but if you're going to talk about Clean Spark at least make that clear, it's a bit confusing to use the pronoun 'we' about a company other than Argo on here.