Member Info for HarChris

I bought some shares last Monday for 14.15p, right now that would be 16.18p - a 15% bounce off the bottom is a start and a step in the right direction.

So they didn’t make it five rns’ in a row?! John Wood must go… ( :) )

I think we’re set for a steady rise in the lead up to that debt financing confirmation, gla

I think for the large part novacyt holders are fairly sticky now, those that have made it this far aren't selling prior to the dispute resolution at a minimum. What's happening is, with virtually no buying going on very low volume selling is slowly sending this down but if an entity were to attempt to accumulate millions of shares that isn't going unnoticed, no way with this volume.

The moment volume picks up traders jump on in the hope of a breakout and ride it up over a few sessions... so to accumulate in the way you're saying CS under these conditions would be a seriously long drawn out and tedious struggle over a period of many months just to own something like 5% of the company.

For all intents and purposes there isn't a chance of buying novacyt out for anything like the current share price. Equally there's no compelling reason to buy and hold now so we're just stuck in a stalemate!

I'm sure if someone could buy out novacyt this cheap they wouldn't hesitate to but we've seen what happens when an entity starts buying in (Biosynex) , the share price spikes. There is no way with volume as low as it is that someone could accumulate anything more than a few percent very slowly. Total volume is regularly below 100K now and even 50K some days, buying even 5% of the company would mean accumulating more than 3.5 million shares...

The trial date rns was IMO the final nail to the sentiment coffin - it means that it's rather unlikely we suddenly get a resolution to the dispute that catches those on the sidelines out. On top of that we have no CEO so the chance of M&A or something left field at the moment is rather low hence absolutely no FOMO whatsoever.

Buying in down here certainly makes sense if you believe that (i) they'll get some sort of positive outcome from the dispute (eventually!) and (ii) at some point a capable management team will form that actually turn this ship around but if you're the type of investor that wants to make a return in the near term then I imagine you'd steer well clear!

Just goes to show how much of a 'we're not going out of business despite selling our flagship asset' sentiment boost Argo saw in early January...
BTC price ~$17k - Argo 16p
BTC price ~$24.5k - Argo <15p

Obviously the bitcoin difficulty accounts for some of it.

'I don't see finance giving us a rocket, it has been known about for months. Key is PR and getting more people interested in the share. That seems to be happening over the past week.'

All it takes is a high volume day, like 18th Jan, like 1st Feb but without a big seller to depress it and we see a good 20%+ daily move. I think confirmation of financing could potentially do that, especially if the commentary around it is very positive.

But the real rocket would come from an unexpected contract win, not like the other day but one on a par with the M55 contract (of the vessel regeneration type, not motorway repair works! ) - I don't see why that wouldn't be possible in the coming months.

Good stuff!

I get why sentiment is absolutely shot to pieces, the decline in revenue is extremely poor and it's certainly embarrassing that non covid sales have fallen below 2019 levels but it's still impossible to get one's head around the current valuation. We all know the saying revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash is king so let's compare share price and cash from 2019 to now:

2019: ~14p a share, cash £1.5m, debt £7m, net debt £5.5m
2023: ~ 60p a share, cash £87m, debt £0m, net cash £87m

There is simply no world in which the novacyt of 2019 could ever have flipped from an entity fighting for its life to one with no debt and £87m cash, not possible. In 2019 the absolute most they'd have been able to raise is about £2m and that would have diluted shareholders heavily. It's simply flabbergasting that wiping out the debt and increasing cash by 5800% leads to a 4X improvement in share price. Those that bought into the IPO in 2017 are now at breakeven...

Only two scenarios could even remotely justify the current market cap and that would be (i) haemorrhaging cash or (ii) odds on to lose the DHSC dispute forcing a near wipeout in cash. (i) certainly isn't true, stripping out the LTIP payments (which are fully paid out now) the cash burn is low despite the terrible operational performance, so it leaves only (ii) , that novacyt are odds on to lose the dispute and have, say, £70m of that cash removed.

I still don't think either apply.

Thankfully it seems you’ve gone quiet on your Tree Shake of Death… that was starting to get annoying !

I think it's perfectly possible that John Wood held back some of these updates until it was clear Kave and Killick were done selling - if so it's incredibly smart management.

We heard from other sources that John Wood was flabbergasted by the share price reaction so far... we also know that he rushed to buy at 21p all the way up to 24p which again proves he wasn't expecting to see such a share price retrace.

I'm near 100% certain that a deal with Astra will be struck because it was already being arranged *PRE* FSS contract - the only reason it wasn't agreed is that the FSS contract changed everything, it changed the amount of funding needed in the near term and it also drastically changed the negotiating position for Harl.

Let's just say they certainly aren't getting 15 million warrants at 6.2p!

If you mean a pre-placing pump then definitely not but certainly helps management to be entering talks with Astra on the enlarged debt facility with a growing share price and a bolstered market cap.

JW is sending a clear message… ‘all of you trying to play the game selling on news aren’t going to be in luck as the news is gonna’ keep coming!’

Yeah, it's really a case of buying, holding and waiting for the graphite supply shortage to eventually occur (which is as close to a certainty as something like this can be) - the greater the operational progress between now and when that does happen the bigger the rerate will be.

Perhaps Harl will also be upgrading the Preston Northern Bypass alongside?! Ha yeah pretty embarrassing error amongst some other errors (FSS contract awarded in September, apparently) but still good to see yet another financial commentator describing Harland and Wolff as well undervalued and highlighting the buying opportunity that it is.

From 8 mins:

https://audioboom.com/posts/8250165-alan-green-talks-about-warpaint-london-harland-wolff-kavango-resources

Stokey yes it was but you also seemed doubtful of much news over the coming six months and since then a few weeks has passed and we've had three rns' so it's fair to say your predictions/instinct isn't serving you well right now.

'Meanwhile over at ATM the directors actually buy shares in their company.'
_________

I make that the first director purchase at ATM since 2018, but any chance to find an angle to knock BMN and you will!

Absolutely Kaeren, I think as shareholders we are going to be very much kept in the loop with developments all along the way and there's still the very real possibility of a left field news item rerating the share price in the short term.

JP if that target price is met some level of dilution will take place at the 17p conversion price but I suspect mgmt will pay off a good chunk of it in cash to minimise dilution - we'll then start 2024 with a healthy cash position, no short term debt and long term debt having halved.

Cash cow in the making from the mining side alone.