Member Info for HarChris

So that means there's a 50% chance I end up with Margot Robbie? Either I do or I don't - I'll take those odds!

Oh dear, statistics is not your strong point!

Well since the start of the year bitcoin has risen 41% whilst difficulty has increased 26% so although there will be some slight improvement on margins the difference at this stage won't be substantial.

Personally I can see why last July with just $7m in the bank, kiln 3 ramp up issues, load shedding costs and V in Europe at $33/kg that investors might be fearful of a forced placing in the months ahead for working capital needs and hence would sit on the sidelines (despite the significantly depressed share price) but now? This to me is simply a lack of awareness of just what a different position Bushveld are in having made it through such a difficult 2022 unscathed and now heading through 2023 with European V 25% higher, Chinese (and rest of Asia) 25% higher, persistently high US prices, a new agreement with Emalahleni municipality which mitigates against scheduled load shedding, kiln 3 ramp up issues behind them and ever falling costs from the strength of the dollar.

Having survived 2022 in one piece 2023 is the year this finally takes off.

PI100 logic:
When it's rising it's 100% a pump
When it's falling maybe bad news is about to land?!

Good post OR. I would think for the next year or so those expansion plans will be parked, in this market the most important thing is being self-sufficient, financing comes at a heavy cost and the market is yet to acknowledge the progress that Bushveld has already made up until now.

Let's reach that 5000-5400mtV production level, deal with the Orion debt and continue building the cash pile until market conditions are favourable - fast forward 18 months with say a share price at 20-25p and we raise the necessary funding through a combination of debt/equity without a problem.

Yes Stokey it has always been the case that a placing is ineffective at this price because it simply wouldn't provide the necessary capital. In November 2021 with the share price in the 25p-30p range Harl got a placing away at 20p and managed to raise £8.2m... how much would they be able to raise at this price? Barely £5m.

If the share price had soared post FSS contract to 50p+ I'm sure John would have considered a placing as part of the funding mix and it would have been no bad thing, setting a floor on the share price well above where it is now but given we're at just 17p it's a long way off being a viable option.

Inventory was 826mtV as of June 30th. H2 production was then 2200mtV vs Sales of 1939mtV so that's an additional 261mtV giving a total of 1087mtV which is equal to ~ $47m in current assets at current prices.

In the last analyst call Fortune stated an aim to sell a quarter of the inventory in 2023 with the rest presumably feeding the electrolyte plant through H2 2023 and 2024.

I shared that just to join in with the boasting and to highlight how being right/spot should not give someone eternal credibility like some seem to think on here. I sold for a few reasons, most notably because I don't think we're out of the woods yet when it comes to taming inflation and that will cause short term market panic, I don't think we're going to see a proper bull market until at least 2023 but probably early 2024 (not going to go into my macro theories here), I don't think the market is ready to see all out FOMO and I therefore expect profits to be crystallised when they can be. The likes of bitfarms went from a low of $0.35 to $1.25, Riot from $3.20 to $7.75 and Hut8 from $0.70 to $2.50, those sorts of moves require constant momentum to carry through in this market and when it's lost the drops are significant (for someone like you it's probably less important as your main focus is on ensuring you don't miss any bull market, something that could happen to me with my strategy).

My biggest regret so far though is failing to really commit a few months ago when I was fishing around the bottom. I started scaling in but just held back that little bit too much but I feel its possible that I'll get a second bite at the cherry.

Juyamah, I do agree that there isn't absolute clarity but it is very much implied in the wording in the FSS subcontract RNS that (i) the government will be supporting significantly as part of the new National Ship Building Strategy and (ii) Navantia as consortium preferred bidder will be part funder of the recapitalisation plan. I particularly like this line:

'The Company will be receiving a significant proportion of the investment required for the Recapitalisation Plan from the project directly.'

I'm the only one to sell the recent top - Riot $6.25 (+60%), Hut8 $1.99 (+75%), Bitfarms $1.15 (+105%)

Not bad bear market dealings so far ;) looking to scale back in in March although it may take longer for a full retrace.

Quite fun popping on here a few times a day and watching you guys go at each other, sometimes it's worth getting the popcorn out!

Ps Poorinvester you said at 16:19 that you bought loads of Mara today (hence between US opening and 11:19 EST) so that was anything between $7.22 and $6.74 and then a few hours later you claim you bought in the $6.50s...

It was always a given that HARL wouldn't be expected to raise £77m to upgrade the yards within two years so that the contract could start proper in 2025, that's simply too much to expect from a company valued at the time at less than £10m and already burdened with debt. It would also be counter to the government's recent claim that shipbuilding is returning to the UK if in doing so it meant that HARL were going to have to shoulder an enormous amount of debt that would potentially leave them insolvent a few years down the line.

This contract will come with a hell of a lot of support on top of the £700m-£800m revenues.

Well now you know that it's a mixture of the two but overall and exceedingly good deal for Harland and Wolff, I don't think anyone can complain about coughing up 35% of a £98m investment package!

Let's get the facts straight - the total investment into Harl is valued at ~£98m, £77m investment into the shipyards and £21m in skills and technology transfer from Navantia. Hopefully we can all agree that the latter, the £21m, won't cost Harland and Wolff anything... as for the £77m it appears that £32m is coming from Harl's end and the rest from the consortium/government.

So let's call it an increase in assets of £98m vs £32m liabilities giving £66m boost in net asset value - that's 120% more than the current market cap.

Clsk for example, I assume when you say they are currently diluting AB you mean they are continuing to issue shares from their At-The-Market placing? Well the share price is nearly 50% higher than the start of the year and about 75% higher than the lows, if expansion costs are still as low as they were when I last checked then this is the least it's ever cost them to increase their hash rate.

The longer this bear market goes on the more it suits those with the lowest cash costs and those that are able to take advantage of the lower cost of expansion. I haven't done much research recently but I'd have thought this puts the likes of Riot (cash to expand), CLSK & Bitfarms (lowest cash costs) ahead of the rest.

The likes of Mara and Hut8 (especially the latter) are where they are because of their large bitcoin holding... as the bear market continues they have far less to gain and far more to lose (forced selling of bitcoin).

As I keep repeating the *only* justification for a share price as low as it is here is the debt risk and journeying through 2023 struggling for cash so with every tick up in V and tick down in Rand that risks shrinks and shrinks and shrinks.

V - Europe FeV $40.25/kg, China (+ rest of Asia) $45/kg, US FeV $44.75
Cash costs - ~$25/kg

I would now say risk of funding crisis in 2023 is near zero, risk of CLN default is very close to zero. Way, way too much downside risk is being applied here, a correction is coming.

Cash generation is now in the region of $6.5m to $7m a month...

Of course cash generation is not the same as profit but is there another AIM company at that cash to mcap level? No.

Whatever pfizer has or hasn't done has absolutely nothing to do with novacyt. It's like blaming a british soldier for the Iraq War instead of Tony Blair.