Member Info for HarChris

What on earth has this to do with novacyt?

'I'm sorry but there appears to be no shares to sell'

'If we lose the dispute it is £0.01 or lower, until then it is whatever the market decides. We all know nothing exciting is going to happen this year (non covid off a cliff, no M&A, reputational damage due to dispute) so the market could be just dropping this weekly until next June.'

It's highly unlikely either side is 'winning' or 'losing' the dispute in its entirety, if there's a negative outcome for NCYT they'll almost certainly still be in a far stronger position financially than they were pre-covid, at, 15p.

How did you get to 17% dilution? Currently there's 101 million shares in issue and the maximum number of shares to be issued is 10,046,556 (see https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/successful-1635-million-fundraise-variation-to-spa-3pj8mx6yqiiw1v9.html)

So it's actually a 10% dilution at ~ 55p a share.

The one very obvious benefit is that it's out the way now. We all knew that they were going to need extra funding at some point in 2023 (I had about £10m pencilled in) so however good the newsflow this year they'd always be brakes on the share price til the funding was in place - now it's free to fly if they deliver as expected.

I personally can't see any benefit whatsoever in Alastair exaggerating the impressiveness of the data a month ago, can anyone else? They weren't looking for funding between then and Science Day so all it would have done is built expectations and perhaps caused a big rally before a massive sell off tomorrow when everyone finds out it was actually hyperbole.

It landed after market hours Richard.

Banshees of Inisherin?!

'Wow just looked at my electricity bill and I'm paying 32p per kwh! Unbelievable. Maybe should be investing in electricity companies instead! I would be racking up massive losses if I was home mining.'

And so is every listed miner, except their losses are in the millions! Obviously due to scale large publicly listed miners will get their electricity costs down but when you then factor in land cost, construction of facilities, permanent staff, management pay, interest on debt etc etc you will probably find that the cost to mine one bitcoin is fairly similar (and at times cheaper for the individual).

Now ask yourself if that is true for, I dunno, mining nickel?!

Still 35 - 45 percent rise just to get back to the range in which John Wood was buying at a few months ago.

Although obviously that's not true is it that you can't be profitable yourself buying a few miners? Otherwise no one would.

When bitcoin rallies every man and his dog can join the network and make money, especially if you already have the rigs and just need to switch them on.

I think we agree with each other Hexam. My point is not that they can't make profits but they can't maintain profitability sustainably, long term. It will almost certainly always be cyclical and not just because of the bitcoin price but also because of difficulty (and the lagged effect). Ironically the best time to buy is when miners are loss making as when conditions become more favourable the share price will sky rocket and once again shareholders will carry the can through placings. As long as miners raise enough during boom times then they'll have the ****nal to make it through the loss making periods too (once again becoming a buying opportunity).

AB of course there are some barriers to entry but they are tiny compared to almost every other industry. But yeah I agree with you about the lag, it's that that creates the potential for massive profits over a short period of time (with margins shrinking again over time).

This is exactly what I was saying at the weekend, now the dust has settled and the share price volatility has subsided we should start to see accumulation from institutions... and yet some regulars on this board (cough, cough you know who you are) pushed back against me saying 'why would institutions buy now when the big revenues won't come in til 2025?'

This is exactly the time to get on board, before the herd come rushing in.

Hexam I'm a firm believer that this will never be a profitable industry unless one or two miners absolutely dominate the space, the barriers to entry are simply too low (literally every human is capable of entering the mining space when it's profitable which quickly wipes out said profits).

There's still a ton of money to be made however off the back of other shareholders' losses.

What we've seen is an indiscriminate fall across the index, good companies across AIM being whacked hard and seeing prolonged depressed share prices but I think at the very least as 2023 continues savvy investors will begin to start distinguishing the good from the bad, the opportunities that are worth taking a bigger punt on.

And you might even start to see it happening very soon as the FTSE100 (and FTSE250 to a lesser extent) starts to look considerably overvalued given the backdrop.

Xenor, it's the latter on the most part I'm sure. There is historically low investment flowing into AIM currently and there's a total allergy to anything with debt, just look at what was happening to the share price here before the FSS contract...

For that reason it's doubly as hard to see the sort of share price reactions one would expect with the transformative news we got in November and the shorters know this, it's a perfect opportunity for them to muddy the waters, to get everyone questioning themselves, 'if all you're saying is true then why is the share price not rising?! Perhaps you're talking bollo*** and it's me that knows what I'm talking about with my 20p short etc etc '

As time passes and management continue to deliver against their strategy the share price WILL follow, and if the market as a whole improves then that share price improvement will happen a million times faster.

I got carried away and added a 0 below!

And to put that assessment against the end prize, if the goal is achieved successfully and with it minimal dilution we could be look at a share price of around £3, 20X from here, 20000% rise.

Kris, it's all about whether or not Harl can become a profitable £500m turnover business that John Wood is aiming for and also getting there with as little debt and as little dilution as possible. Each action along the way is essentially assessed against that medium term goal so yes the near term funding is crucial but also the terms matter(are any warrants set at a far higher share price this time around, for example). The FSS deal increases the chance of success considerably, as does the immediacy of the yard upgrades and the £50m revs received before the contract starts proper in 2025.

Most important aspects now are as you say funding in place and enough contracts won this year to keep working capital tiding over nicely without having to use the full debt facility.

Invinity, Cellcube and all the new vrfb companies that will spring up in the years ahead - you can see why the BE spin off is necessary now, cellcube needs to be properly funded to take make the most of their first mover advantage.