Member Info for HarChris

I wish everyone would just take their spats elsewhere, it's making this bb unreadable.

Why don't you take each other's emails or add each other on discord or something and have your tête-à-tête there?

'From everything I can find re shorts, there are no short positions in H&W greater than 0.5% so the issue here is not shorting but selling'

YES! 20 million sold between Killick and Kave, over 11% of the company.
Share price holding up relatively well considering.

2pm and no obvious dumping - either Kave is out/finished or he's overslept :D

Xenor we know he was dumping like mad Thursday evening then the TR1 landed just an hour after close of business - I highly doubt the TR1 was filed after market closed, sent to Harl and then released to the market all in that space of time hence I think the latter is more likely... out or under 1 million now.

Kave had a maximum of 3,756,210 shares at the end of Thursday's trading, most likely less as the TR1 was probably filed in the day. Since there's been over 10m volume so if he wanted out he's either fully out or very close now.

Isn't it funny that when it comes to valuations the shorters choose to focus on the here and now / the past rather than the future yet when it comes to expanding the debt facility no longer do they talk about the here and now but the future difficulty in paying it back.

It's as if they have an agenda...

Well neither of us are talking about a >25% stake in the company so we're not particularly disagreeing.

'Kaeren ref 11.04 post To avoid me falling into error which two situations am I conflating?'

An institution taking a slice of the business vs a takeover. The latter we (and Kaeren agree with), the former simply requires them to buy shares on the open market. There's nothing stopping an institution slowly accumulation 10% or more of the company.

We should not be underestimating the relevance of expanding the Astra debt facility - this is a horrid market to get financing in and we're seeing heavily discounted placings left right and centre and yet Harl are able to continue to tap the debt markets.

Creditors have confidence in Harl and so should investors.

Instead of buying Harl out an institution or two may well decide to take a significant slice of the business knowing full well that with their support further down the road they are highly likely to make a phenomenal return.

I think we'll see an II make a move in the coming weeks and months.

I don’t agree that it was never going to rise from 20p to 50p, it’s exactly the sort of news that can potentially create those sorts of moves but a combination of a seller and the current market (the two things possibly linked) prevented it.

Still think without the sellers we’d have seen >35p, even if only briefly.

Coming back to the FSS contract I think of it like this - the £100m investment in the yards + skills and technical transfer is equivalent to a £100m increase in assets against a £32 liability (what’s coming out Harl’s end), so this contract increases NAV by at least £68m even if the £800m work ends up at breakeven…

So realistically the contract adds anywhere from £68m to about £140m in NAV alone, ignoring all the extra value likely to be generated from the yard upgrades, automation, upskilling etc

'Harl is going to be 250 million pound turnover company within a couple of years no doubt about it .'

They've already got ~£140m revenue a year guaranteed from 2025 onwards and we're twenty three months out.
In two years time Harl will likely be turning over closer to £500m than £250m.

Does anyone know if we're likely to get regular contract RNS' even for relatively smaller wins or perhaps even quarterly updates where they are all grouped together going forward?

To all of those that are basing valuations on the interims:

We know what the market thought of Harl following the interims, it gave them the middle finger and the market cap dropped to about £11m. The question is, how much value does a contract worth ~ £750m before inflation over the next seven years that brings with it a plethora of investment benefits add to Harl? How much added value does it derive having the government back you like this? How much should be added to the value for the threat of bankruptcy having been eliminated? (Harl would not have been receiving further funding from Astra without this deal). How much extra value should be added for being able to transform the shipyards largely via third parties and benefit from significant upskilling from one of the most experienced shipbuilders in the world?

For me it’s a different company after this contract and should currently be worth ~£45m from a risk/reward perspective. Not the finished article, obviously. Not guaranteed to become a £B ftse 250 company either but the work this contract will open up and the political strategic position it finds itself occupying means there’s every chance now they pull the above off.

And this is just one market of the five they are operating in.

Well I find trolls can be a very useful way of gauging the outlook for a share - when it's easy for them to create a deeply negative narrative it suggests to me that others will be won over by it and will likely steer clear. When those same trolls are then forced to dredge out lies (eg BMN heavily diluting shareholders) or resort to simple taglines like 'well tell it to the share price!' then you know that you've reached some sort of turning point.

Stokey, the selling of Kave and Killick *is* almost certainly the main reason why the share price has retraced as much as it has. I follow a lot of shares and it's a fact that when a seller shows their hand traders do not go up against them, they do not go against the tide... they either short to take advantage of downward selling pressure or at the very least close their position until they think the selling is done.

Of course it's not 100% the sole reason, if we landed an FSS-esque contract monthly then the buying and momentum would simply be too strong for any seller to make a difference but as the initial enthusiasm following the contract win has died down the selling has pushed the share price far lower than it would have otherwise.

Once there's broad consensus that the selling has ended at the very least they'll be something of a reversal.

I don't think it's suspicious, Stokey seems very genuine to me. I suspect the truth is closer to what's already been said - very good researcher on this share, less skilled understanding the share price dynamics - it's common to start turning pessimistic when the share price is going against you, it's common to think what's happened before is going to happen again etc etc

Personally though I think what we've just seen over the past few weeks is the retrace completing and the share price finding a bottom.

If what you’re looking for is a business hoping to grow revenues 20 fold without external funding or heavy dilution, well, you’re going to be searching for a while. At least with Harl much of the shipyard upgrades are third party funded - I imagine this will also be the case with further contract wins in renewables and energy security too.

There’s an attempt going on to play down the value of any company with huge growth prospects that isn’t profitable just yet, as if the ONLY thing that matters is the near term funding. And even then when the near term funding isn’t an issue like here they twist it to ‘well look how much debt they’re having to take on’

Nothing is a given but with ~£140m of booked revenues pa already for 2025 through to 2031 at healthy margins it’s a hell of a jump start to getting where JW has stated numerous times he’s aiming for medium term (£500m turnover business).