Member Info for HarChris

There are many IIs that invest in small caps. And no they never FOMO in with the herd, any II (or HNW individuals) would be looking to take a position now that the hype has died down.

Well Stokey I know you’ve been here far longer than I have but I don’t consider the FSS contract commensurate to any contracts that have come before so I don’t think we need news here for IIs to start taking their positions… IIs are more than comfortable to take their positions now to ensure a good entry even if the story takes a little longer to play out.

Anyway I think we’ll be hearing a lot more from Harl over the coming months.

Why? It's February 11th, why have you ruled out further large contracts to come this year, already?!

Is that you admitting that whilst you haven't seen the value in BMN previously, at this stage you do? ;)

Mary, as a very simple test I often ask the question when adding more 'what's more likely from here, a 50% rise or a 50% fall?

At 15p a 50% fall takes Harl to the level that was briefly seen before this FSS contract was ever a realistic reality.
As 15p a 50% rise takes Harl to the level that we saw two weeks ago before heavy selling from Kave and Killick

I know which one I think is more likely and it's not even close.

You don't think a bank is going to lend to a producer that has managed to expand to 30000tpa with virtually no debt and very limited financing to date as well as already being cash generative? I do.

You keep going on about how much dilution shareholders have had to put up with so I thought I'd check how heavily I've been diluted since I first bought in in August 2020:

Aug 2020 - 1,153,642,682
Feb 2023 - 1,287,818,281

30 months, 11.6% dilution.

No skeletons, it's simply hesitant investors on the sidelines waiting to see if these V prices stick or push on further.

The herd are about to arrive leaving this goat behind.

Highly likely they’ll manage the FSS work with a healthy profit each year - ~ £145m revs a year from 2025 onwards could easily be half the current mcap in profit a year from this one contract alone.

7.5m volume vs 4.2m yesterday - every reason to believe Kave is either out or left with less than a million.

Today was always going to be tough but when you realise that a ~7 million dump led to less than a 15% drop in the share price this week you know the bottom is in.

Imagine holding through the past eighteen months (i'm sure some of you have been here longer than that), winning all those contracts but in particular the FSS and the long term security that brings and yet finding yourself 68% down!

This was 16.5p a year ago today! It was 48p eighteen months ago whilst emerging from covid!

14.5p is the price that we had around 10 minutes to buy in at after the first FSS rns landed confirming the winning bid. At that stage:
(i) we didn't know how much of the work would go to Harl
(ii) that there would be any revenue at all until 2025
(iii) that the investment into the yards would commence immediately
(iv) that the government were to make it such a flagship project with numerous visits from ministers and also the PM

and the biggest one of all...

(iv) that the contract would for certain be signed.

It's quite amazing that it's come all the way back down to that price now.

Well I'm buying more, risk/reward gets sillier with every penny drop.

Are there any big sells going through? Can buy for 14.7p now!

Not worth looking at nasdaq pre market price until about an hour before trading - already arbk showing flat.

'HarChris, fair point. We know that there is a 95% chance that the Orion debt will be re-negotiated. However, it is still uncertainty for many investors.'

IF V had fallen as many forecasters expected then I would go as far to say that there was some very real risk attached to this CLN in November. First of all we may well have actually run out of cash around now hence needing funding now (possibly through a distressed placing) as well as probably $20m+ extra funding to cover CLN or renegotiation on poor terms.

But not only has V not sunk to the low 30s it's actually rising and well above $40/kg now across our selling points and geographies, making it ~$42/kg as things stand. Whilst I think we are agreeing in general as things stand I'm putting the chance of renegotiation more like 99% and now there is a small chance that we actually self fund the entire amount through 2023 profits.

I simply think investors haven't yet twigged that the risk has diminished and hence they are missing an opportunity - another 10% rise in V and t might just become evident to all.

We will never know for sure, he could simply have crossed the 3% threshold at some point yesterday and then dumped another few million after filling in the TR1.

The Tr1 coming out so soon after that dump (needs to be sent to Harl and then they file it) which suggests to me it was compiled in the day and the rest of the dump was him reducing to zero (or very close to).

I’d take it further than that SMT1… the company won’t be even looking to sell all the inventory this year, they will need a stock of inventory to use for electrolyte manufacturing starting in H2. Fortune stated 250mtV (2022 excess) to sell this year.

What it does do is strengthen their position when it comes to renegotiating the Orion debt, significantly. They are approaching specialist funders as a highly profitable business that simply needs a small loan in the short term to tied them over.

'Once that tr1 lands of them sold out, then should recover imho...market cap is low v potential and possible future revenue guidance'

Kave? No more TR1s from him now he's well below the threshold.