Member Info for HarChris

I agree that it’s not as simple as strong dollar great, strong rand bad but on the whole it’s true that BMN will benefit from a weaker rand. Also I think you're confusing inflation and exchange rate, I highly doubt the workers will be acutely in tune with the currency fluctuations and start demanding higher pay because of it, that’ll only happen if inflation gets out of hand.

I think we should also bear in mind that the cost guidance for 2023 is based on a rate of 16.7Zar to the dollar... January has averaged 17.1 (so slightly better for BMN) and now sits at 17.42 - Many forecasters out there expect the dollar to strengthen against the Rand by as much as 20% from here.

I still think we're going to end up seeing AISC costs come out at close to $30/kg.

Sorry that was meant to end * we just might make the payment in full after all.

To say there was never a chance of meeting this by November 2023 irrespective of pandemic and war is so far off the mark.

That first point is so ridiculous Cindercone... it's a CLN, BMN merely had to be at 17p for full conversion and the share price had been higher than that for ages prior to the pandemic and even went higher after the deal with Orion was agreed. As it stands BMN have over 1000mtV fully costed inventory which equates to over $40m so take away the logistic issues over the past 18 months and that alone would more than cover the Orion payment in full.

As it is with V price where it is now and where Rand is predicted to go (weaken) we won't fall short by much at all, V prices strengthen further and we just might.

Inquiries are all the rage at the moment!

Show some humility after displaying such total mathematical illiteracy.

3842mtV vs 3900mtV target is a 1.5% miss. So by your reasoning (2-3 percent) the commentary was correct.

You made a bit of a fool of yourself there!

Bushveld made it through in one piece this year despite production once again exceeding sales - fully costed inventory will be now above 1000mtV which is over $40m so 2023 is all about increasing sales...

Oily, BBN's $31/kg is AISC, not cash costs...

Well an II wouldn’t be able to buy 2.4% of Avacta for £10m fortunately as that sort of buying at this stage would almost certainly start a stampede - I doubt they would be able to get half that at this point in time.

I know it’s impossible to know the revenue breakdown of Navantia / Harl / BMT but what does everyone think about BMT’s share? Personally I’d have thought the design team would only be receiving a small percentage of the £1.6b rather than £100m+ ?!

For the sub contract rns to double the share price they'll need to be something in there that is unforeseen / better than expected as well as increase debt facility to be confirmed alongside... If an II or two take a position that too will add to the momentum and potential for 40p in the near term.

The big returns however will come with time as milestones are met along the way in 2023. Personally I'm in no hurry to see £1+ a share.

Don't forget the company spent much of 2022 investing in infrastructure improvements in order to mitigate against weather related events like they saw last year... I would doubt the recent storm has interrupted operations.

Good foresight from TGR.

Multiple funds are not going to be selling out, let's be honest. If they held through the past year when Harl's future looked a bit hairy (debt-fuelled growth in an ever increasing interest rate environment) then they aren't going to sell out at 20p when the long term future has more or less been secured with this contract (seven years of work, £100m investment, government-backed).

Whilst the stock market is meant to be forward looking it really isn’t right now so even if novacyt were expected to win the case outright with a high degree of probability and end up with a war chest of more than £150m it still wouldn’t boost the share price right now.

There just isn’t a short term catalyst to bring about a recovery for the time being, frustratingly

Let's think of the millions of ordinary folk that will benefit in the future when cancer treatment is revolutionaised rather than the small minority of very rich people that will benefit in the early days.

2023 is looking capex-light with a weak rand and strong and rising vanadium prices - couldn’t be set up any better than this.

I'm not arguing against any of that, simply that projecting forward PE ratios is a useless endeavour (which you're basically agreeing with anyway)

When bitcoin moons all sense goes out the window and share prices can do anything short term, just enjoy it rather than attempt to rationalise it!

100-150% rise next week you think? I hope so!

Absolutely but it's not wise to point out ludicrous valuations elsewhere and simply assume Harl with therefore be £100m mcap overnight. But i do agree that this signals Harl's ability to become a serious player in the industry and that alone will probably command a considerable premium from where we are now - executing on the strategy and proving it with strong and skilled management and further big contract wins and we start talking multiples.