Member Info for HarChris

After the bloodbath in the markets over the past year there will be many high net worth individuals that need to free up cash and, whilst they would obviously prefer to 'hold for gold' , someone with a substantial holding in HARL being able to reduce their position now between say 18p and 22p may feel like a respite having seen their holding fall as low as 6p not too long ago.

What you've also got to remember is that there are many, many, many beaten up stocks right now, especially on AIM. Traders will be constantly moving money about trying to take advantage of big moves that are happening all over the place... temporary drops are therefore no indictment on the long term prospects here.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shift-to-mined-vs-man-made-graphite-raises-shortage-risk-for-evs-11674603067

Hang in there a bit longer, a few things could be coming to a head soon.

GDR with their whopping £50k of revenue in 2022 isn't far below the value of HARL now... have they just won a £1.6B contract too?

'The reaction that Paul Hill got from whoever he was interviewing is just the lack of understanding we are dealing with. Our PR company has got to get the message out loud and clear on Science Day.'

He ends by saying the problem is these pre-revenue drug companies need to have a strong balance sheet and the cash to see them through... ermmm Avacta do...

This is the best analysis I've seen so far from BBN on twitter: https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1604876185250455553

He goes on to say that he sees 80p to 110p as a realistic and fair target... although this was before he knew that Harl would be receiving the £77m investment into the shipyards immediately and so had not factored in the amount of extra business that could be won over the next couple of years because of that news.

I'd be thinking less about the PE ratios and more about the total asset value of Harl in a few years time - with all the infrastructure upgrades and technological transfer (funded largely by third parties) does anyone really think that their business as a whole with market leading shipyards is going to be worth a mere £30m or so to an acquirer?

To get to fair value I'd be starting with future net asset value and then taking the future profits and including a multiplier of around 12.

If I was to be completely neutral and balanced I would say the only justification for this sort of valuation were if Harl were forced to tap the equity markets to fund the next couple of year's expansion. They don't and they won't. There is no way the UK government were going to award this bid to Team Resolute and the majority of work to Harl without doing their due diligence and ensuring they were positioned to navigate the next few years successfully before the 2025 commencement... this may be a tricky market to raise funds in but a 60% share of a £1.6B contract that is backed by the government is exactly the sort of company that creditors will be looking to lend to...

An official announcement on the Riverstone facility should have an even bigger effect on the share price than the sub-contract execution, I expect sellers will be stampeding back in once its announced.

I look at those saying they'll wait for 15p and wonder if they are actually thinking 'nah £31m is overpriced but £26m mcap, yeah I'm in at that valuation...'

I mean, they're not, but shows how silly it is.

It’s not hard to understand, PIs (via Killik) have been selling and that’s dropped the share price.

Quite easy to understand and not an issue.

This is a time of extreme short-sightedness in the markets, there is no growth multiplier applied to companies like this at the moment. Markets are meant to be forward looking but there's absolutely none of it to be seen, no share price premium factored in for the long term potential.

I'm sure we'll be looking back in a few years with Harl now an industry leader and saying 'can you believe this sat at £32m mcap for months after a £1.6B contract rising to £2B+ in which Harl got 50%+ of the work and £100m of investment that set them up to win tons more similar tenders?! What a strange time it was!'

I don't think there will have been too many panickers to be honest - it's just traders that bought in / bought more in the hope of a rally into the Q&A, instead dumping when it was announced that it was postponed.

Would be karma if we get a morning RNS though and the tedious day traders miss out on any gains.

It's easy to spot how many traders are hanging around hoping for immediate good news, otherwise what's the hurry? We were told the subcontract would be signed in a couple of weeks and that was less than a week ago.

If you believe the company is capable of continuing to win contracts like this FSS contract then just sit back and wait for the rerate to happen, the rewards will be worth it whether it takes six months, a year or even three.

Yes very much so but luck plays a huge role in which of these miners comes out on top in the end and Argo hasn't had much of it to be fair.

I don't see any reason why market sensitive information couldn't be shared outside of market hours although if it were going to happen we'd probably see an rns land once the market has closed today and before the interview at 6pm.

Sure, Tesla has a stronger pipeline than IES, I think we can all agree on that. One has a £50M market cap the other a $450B market cap though so I don't think the comparison is particularly useful.

'As far as I know KS sold as he has just been made a partner at Baillie Gifford and as such his stock in HARL was going to raise a conflict of interest .GLA '

Whilst this can't be confirmed it would be great news if true... as a non UK issuer KS wouldn't have to inform the market again if he was selling down to 0 and with the volume since the 18th it's possible that he's either out or very close to being out now.

Kilik is a broker that holds shares for PIs, hence it's PIs selling in this case (and crystallising some profits).

Why did Kavé Sigaroudinia sell some of his shares after the FSS rns? There's been a few reasons given on here though no one knows for sure, but if a big holder does want to sell then it's always a good idea to sell into volume.

Would have been nice to see 30p+ already but it should get there in time.

As the need for funding is so positive (growth happening at pace) a placing at a premium is very possible. I'm sure IIs would be willing to pay a premium seeing as the last two placings were at 100p and 175p.

There are tons of energy companies that have never turned a profit and are valued at multiples of IES - look at ITM for starters which is valued at £550m.

Interesting to see National Express win an almost identical sized contract today (€1B Euros / £880m over ten years) and their market cap today increases by ~£45m - that's more than Harl's entire valuation and they aren't receiving over two times their mcap in investment either