Member Info for HarChris

3p was the very bottom with the high chance of bankruptcy being priced in so whatever happens it is extremely unlikely to retest that price anytime soon. The share price is likely to stay elevated here based on the knowledge of where it goes if bitcoin really starts rallying because, let's be honest, whatever you think of the fundamentals if bitcoin were to simply push on this week to $25k Argo will break 20p with ease and maybe break 25p.

Vanadium prices levelling off on the whole but at very healthy prices - dollar still above 17 Rand.

Very profitable start to the year.

I'm not convinced Mara and Bitfarms are going to outpace the others, the only reason they have recently is because they'd fallen so much further and they instantly made that back (and hence saw exaggerated reversals).

I can't quite get my head around the valuation now so much of the risk has been eliminated but all the same, delighted by the news!

DS I think you're oversimplifying the process... a placing requires significant money to be raised by institutional investors and often a separate open offer from private investors, it's not magicked out of thin air.

It's not simply a case of Peter choosing whenever he wants to raise $20m, there has to be a clear plan for what the money to be used for and a price investors are happy to pay. For that to happen sentiment needs to return to the space over a longer period than simply one weekend.

I'm no fan of Argo as you all know but opening a short position in a share that can easily do 100% moves off the back of relatively small rises in bitcoin is plain stupid.

'Shorting this. Let the rug pull begin'

If bitcoin pushes on this week to $25k and beyond then you're fuc***

It is not $65m Orion is due in November, it is a total of $45m ($35m + 10% interest pa) and since some of the interest has already been paid off we're looking at about $40m come November.

Q4 is forecast to be Bushveld's best quarter in terms of production and we already know of the large deliveries to the US (highest ever monthly totals as Loudspeaker just stated). So we finish the year with cash of between $10m and $20m and inventory somewhere around the 800mtV mark - 800mtV at $40/kg (cost already sunk) gives us $32m hence our current assets *already* match but more likely far exceed our current liabilities. Starting the year at highly profitable levels puts us in an even stronger position.

If the near term debt repayments are the biggest factor weighing on the share price then this is an absolute gift and opportunity to buy BMN at a transformational point and valued at less than half their net asset value.

Absolutely and I think without the load shedding narrative taking hold we'd be rallying hard with the margins being so good and the significant cash generation now V is above $40/kg across our selling points - so we wait for Q4 results to hopefully confirm that any even operational loss from Vanchem is small enough not to justify such an extreme share price reaction.

And of course any further upward momentum for V strengthens our position and gives us ever larger breathing space.

The sudden misalignment must be down to one of two things, either the perceived feeling that South Africa is in turmoil and therefore uninvestable or BMN's debt now weighing on the share price more heavily given the economic backdrop (Largo have low debt). You could argue that these two points are tightly linked - any significant operational impact from load shedding will weaken our position with Orion but at least we are seeing robust V prices to temper this risk.

Hopefully once both are addressed we'll see a sharp move north to make up for the relative recent share price weakness.

6 guys for every girl? More like 6 guys for every 5 girls - relatively speaking China's gender differences are extreme but still only about 115 males for every 100 females.

PI, you could argue that Galaxy were offered Helios so cheap that realistically it was better for them to buy it now rather than be just one of numerous companies try to get hold of it post bankruptcy - also with this deal they may actually get all Argo's machines for free in the future.

'And yet there is a willing buyer out there happy to take 300k shares a pop at very near full bid. Any idea who Hexam?'

Yes, traders who are fully aware that two years ago Argo pumped so hard that they exceeded a billion pound valuation with just 1EH/s of computing power. This is the mother of all trading shares and we're seeing it again... that still doesn't make the analysis around the fundamentals any less true.

No Argo is not a takeover target DNP. As Hexam says you'd be buying second hand machines and a couple of small Canadian data centres as well as taking on $79m of debt.

By your reasoning MP they should flog the last of their machines too, that will bring Opex down even further.

No doubt about it there's a trading case to be had right now, Argo SP is probably going far higher. It's just worth keeping in mind that profit generation isn't happening here, even at $50k bitcoin (as Argo won't have the means to keep up with difficulty).

I'm quiet today because there's not much to say and anything I do have to add will be drowned out because bitcoin is rising and mining stocks are following (leading in the case of US mining stocks).

The 'transformational' deal was transformational but not for the reasons most on here think, not because Argo are now going to thrive in the future, it was transformational because they were absolutely dead and buried whereas now there is just a slither of hope of long term survival and plenty of promise for short term pumps (which Peter will likely use to sell more of his shares). There is now, at least in theory, the possibility of survival as Argo can make it to the next bull market and if there's enough interest in the space again may manage to pull off a sizeable placing.

Any survival will once again be off the back off shareholders however, not from profit generation.

Nah the humongous leap to 30000tpa this year will take TGR to cash generation level

It takes mental gymnastics and top managerial execution for Argo to still be in operation post-halving, certainly not impossible but a big ask as things stand. In the meantime though there's certainly money to be made trading as we're going to see many huge up days and many big down days.

'HC, making reference to my initial post on this thread, if Argo can survive this year with $20m cash then I don't see a major concern as BTC halving will occur around Q2 2024 and most analysts are expecting a bull run before this time. I hope Argo don't sell any BTC before this period, so based on my earlier post they could have $200m cash at that point to pay off debt and invest in growth.'

Come again? Where are you getting $200m cash from?! As things stand Argo have $20m cash but that is depleting at this bitcoin and with significant interest due through 2023 and they have 141 bitcoin. Willing to walk through your working, even vaguely?

A pump and dump generally is categorised by a coordinated attempt to push a share price up followed by a coordinated attempt to sell it much higher and exit with a profit, so no, I don't think it was.

I would say that NCYT is valued very low on a fundamental basis and on a 'no chance of going out of business' basis which usually commands a premium on AIM, especially in these times... because of that when there is a sign of life suddenly all those watching choose to take a punt in the hope that 'this time is different', that news lands, that the dispute lands etc - when there is doubt over that being the case slowly, at different price points, those that recently bought in, exit.

In other words it's not orchestrated, it's not the same cabal on twitter manipulating the price but at the same time there is an understanding now that management are not going to support the share price, that they have no interest in seeing it higher for the sake of being higher, so all those traders know that they can once again sit on the sidelines and wait for the next bit of momentum... whether that be clues as to the dispute being close to landing, or a new viral fear etc

We are all welcome to play it safe and sell each time it goes up but you're the worst of all worlds for shouting it down whilst not even having the balls to follow through on your conviction.