Member Info for HarChris

As for a placing I highly, highly doubt it because it simply won't cover the amount of funding they need and after getting a placing away in late 2021 at 20p they aren't going to be happy placing at the exact same level after winning over £850m of business since.

They've just told us their funding route a few days ago anyway:

' It is envisaged that £32m will be financed through additional long term leasehold improvements, medium term asset finance and the Company's proposed new enlarged debt facility with Astra, which is expected to be completed by the end of Q1 2023'

That's a surprise, usually non-UK issuers only report every percent above 5% but if he reported like that previously i assume he will continue to - thanks for correcting me.

Why is it that everyone's assuming the selling is all Killick rather than largely Kave? If the theories are true then he needed to close his position and as of 18th Jan he held 7.27 million shares but having gone below 5% (international holder) no more TR1s due.

If he was closing his position entirely then much of the recent sell volume could be him and the last of his 7 million shares.

I just gave my views on the cash figure position, dispassionately.

Strange response to that.

It's pretty obvious that the cash figure was left off because it's low, however that isn't a surprise when you note that we have built up an even larger amount of stock, sitting at 1000mtV now - roughly equivalent to the Orion repayment amount.

I would imagine the cash figure (if posted) is below $5m due to stock being in transit but if we assume once the cash is received that we end the year at ~$10m then we start the year with a shortfall of $32m re Orion debt and a stockpile worth $41m. Fortune talked of 250mtV of that extra inventory being sold equalling $10m so that makes the shortfall $22m... and that will have to come from cash generation.

As the repayment is due in November, not the end of the year, it's unlikely as things stand that BMN make the repayment in full (besides V rising above $45/kg and guidance met/beaten) but BMN's significant assets and return to profitability will put them in a good position when it comes to the renegotiation.

Because that's how you make money in the stock market. You try to understand the fundamentals and the market mechanisms as best you can and look for what you consider a disconnect between 'true value' that will be realised with time and the current price.

If you think everything is the price it should be then there's no money to be made, besides large FTSE companies payingdividends.

When you take it as a 70% rise it doesn't sound so bad but when you realise that's merely £12.5m added to the market cap for a ~£750m contract that guarantees ~£100m of work a year with healthy margins til 2031, eliminates bankruptcy risk, comes with transformational infrastructure improvements and skills transfer and all the opportunities it opens up then it really is quite irrational.

Si there's a few reasons why it might seem that way... basically what we've seen over the past twelve months is a harsh sell off of the small caps, especially those carrying debt. In fact Harl is in a very small minority of AIM companies that are up over a twelve month period.

And then of course the old 'sell on news'.

As for this contract win obviously the Harl share price isn't down from this FSS contract, the share price opened up at 10p on the morning of the first FSS announcement so is 70%up from then however from such a low market cap you'd think it could have levelled off around 150% up (25p) or more.

We will also get a tr1 at some point on the buy side as someone has been scooping up tranches for weeks now.

I would say it's much simpler than that. There was 35p+ in this but the momentum has been continually crushed by selling, very possibly Kave has had to close his entire position (no more tr1s after 5%) which is a ton of shares + clients from Killik.

I think the share price will settle and we'll start to see institutions taking positions and that will be the catalyst for the next big move but there's no need to second guess when that will be... today's news is excellent, the extra work in 2023/2024 is extremely beneficial for working capital needsand the margins look very healthy.

I'm sure patience here will be rewarded.

In general yes but I'm not sure it's a good idea to broadcast that the government will in fact be shelling out more than the headline figure originally announced.

This won't be a 'best guess' inflationary-based total.

But you were out at 22p earlier? What shares do you suddenly have for me to buy off you?

So you got out at 22p in case of a 25p placing - you’re not very bright are you?

Go on then Chilliboots tell us what price and how much you think will be raised in this imaginary placing?
18p? £3m? Oooh that's going to be a great liquidity boost that is!

No, the time to 'worry' about a placing, if you want to use that word, is after further progress and a sharp rally to the 60p-80p region, then you might find a sudden discounted placing sprung on shareholders.

As it happens my own model comes out at a current fair value based on what I consider the chance of success of different outcomes to be of 45p a share.

Yes Amateur but share price valuations are based on longer term forecasts and chance of success - so for example if you think following this guaranteed work for seven years JW's plan to reach £500m revs at a 10% profit margin and hence a market cap of ~£600m market cap is now possible with a 40% chance of success then you value the company at 0.4 x £600m = £240m, for example. You then work out the amount of dilution to get there and say arrive at a share price target(about £1.40 in this example).

I don’t agree. The execution was known and so the trader instinct of sell on news kicks in… but there was enough extra news in there to feel very confident holding - hopefully it’ll be sellers regret later today.

Not into predictions but if the share price isn’t substantially higher this week then I’m sure we will see it in the coming months.

That’s a very healthy and consistent amount of profit Harl have tucked away from 2025 to 2031.

You’re posting an awful lot AimMaster for someone supposedly so relaxed?!

This is better than I was expecting. The £50m revs over the next two years makes a huge difference as its the near term that's more of a concern than the long term for Harl, as it's all about reaching that ambitious £500m revs a year with as little debt and dilution as possible.

As for that margin... yes and thank you!