Member Info for HarChris

The full year results are irrelevant at this stage and will be ignored (besides some very short term sentiment effect)... what matters is 2023 guidance and funding news, I suspect we'll get both before Q1 is out and that will be the deciding factor on how well the share price performs in the short term.

And no I don't agree that two 150k trades / £22.5k sells points to institutional selling if it stops there... more likely a wealthy trader selling on news / banking a tiny profit from last week.

We've also seen 100k buys today.

Every contract win, every successfully completed project, every funding milestone builds confidence, every bit of evidence that progress is happening increases the chance of not only new investment but sticky investment, money entering for the long term, not short term speculation.

There's a distinction that some on here are missing - Kave and Killick aren't holding this down anymore but they did their damage by halting momentum and preventing a much bigger rise and a much higher trading range to fall back into. Now it's a case of the company continuing to deliver so that we see the buying pressure that will send this significantly north.

If you spot the odd isolated big sell that will just be traders that got in at the low 14s and are happy with their 5% gains.

'It is possible we may have a retrace in the V price, as nothing goes up in a straight line. Is that fair? '

Of course it's possible but there's absolutely nothing to suggest it's going to currently. A period of consolidation at this increased level (with Zar above 18) would suit me down to the ground.

Remember, with V at this price (slightly above, even) RBC has a target of 18p.

It also looks like to me that John Wood understands AIM and understands the need to release regular rns' to the market - great news today, onwards and upwards!

And now with this milestone we can be confident that *IF* there are any short term working capital requirements it really shouldn't be difficult for Tirupati to tap the debt markets, what with having virtually zero debt to their name currently.

Seeing as average realised price has risen above $40/kg now I think it would be a good idea to show what RBC's target is given this situation:

Upside scenario:
Our upside scenario of 18p is based on a group realised price
of $40/kgV. All other assumptions are left unchanged.

* V is actually higher than that and pushing towards $45/kg... that's a hell of a big loss for anyone shorting from 5p!

Instead of coming down too harsh on Alleycat/Andrew/all the other aliases let's stop and consider what a miserable existence they must be leading to resort to this sort of thing.

And then after that minute or two of consideration go and report them.

Yes and BBN also said this on the day of the subcontract signing:

'Yes and "receiving a significant proportion of the investment required for the Recapitalisation Plan from the project directly" is also very good to read. Along with now knowing that £50m of revenues have been secured for 2023/24. It's about as good as I could have wished for.'

And on the contract signing:

'Taken more at 21.5p'
'And final of #HARL at 21p. Did nobody see the debt finance extension tweets?'

Amazing to think there are 50% gains to be had just to get back to that price.

I guess if you were to be truly unbiased it would be worth throwing in an extra line showing BMN cash costs.

No doubt about it though fundamentally speaking BMN has never been this undervalued, not even close.

Looks like strong support down here and a reversal on the cards, must be close to an update soon.

By 2025 it's more than possible that Harl are posting net profit that exceeds today's market cap as well as vastly upgraded yards at Appledore and Belfast, it's now just about getting there - a successful increase to the debt facility with Astra will relieve much of that uncertainty.

I think the past few days will have brought some attention back to Harl and with the institutional selling having finished there's a good chance of a gradual increase higher in the days and weeks ahead - the next big uplift however should come from the confirmation of funding from Astra (Q1 so max 6 weeks) or the next major contract landing.

This is like observing two people learn how to text message for the first time! Have you guys tried carrier pigeon?

Weren’t a few on here this week saying they expected no news before June?!

The way I look at it between November 16th and January 18th shares changed hands as high as 29p and above 20p for much of that period despite the very real threat that issues would arise and the contract would end up failing to be signed (and with it a total share price capitulation).

The shares then traded in the 18p - 21p range prior to the subcontract signing despite still not knowing how much work would go to Harl or the margin we were expecting to see. Upon signing we were also given the very important news that £25m revenue would be generated this year as well as a similar sum next year, something we were not at all aware of previously and especially important as near term working capital is of utmost concern at this stage

And then to top it off we were given further clarity on the £100m investment attached to the contract - not only is the investment into Appledore and Belfast happening immediately and hence better positioning HARL to win work prior to 2025 rather than much further down the road but also of the £100m only ~£32m will be funded by Harl themselves (with funding plans in place) and hence we can look at that as a £68m boost in NAV from this alone.

At 15p I'd certainly be topping up now if I had the spare funds to do so.

Yeah and it would also very much tell us that either (i) killick's selling is done with or (ii) selling is only to be done around the 18-20p mark. I think the former but could still be the latter.

No we don't, if it's Kave that's finally out we are very unlikely to get an RNS telling us so because he was already just below 3%.

I don't think we have a big seller anymore... of course there's always going to be the odd big sell but that's different.

What we need is a big buyer but there's no rush for it.