Member Info for HarChris

What I would say about Battery Minerals is that whilst it does look like they need to raise they are not going to sell more than they absolutely have to down at this valuation when 10m of the 12m shares were converted at 52.6p and the other 2m at 26.7p. They stated in the half year report that a placing is an option and with the share price a fraction of what they got them for only a few months ago I'd expect them to go down that route rather than sell the entirety of their TGR holding for peanuts.

Firstly no I would expect Q2 numbers much sooner than November, probably by second week of October. It's no secret that the numbers were delayed in Q1 as there were issues going on and management wanted ideally to have already sought solutions (such as prepayments) before the operational update was released.

Mhow, why are you applying 15% discount for the entire year? The prepayment was only only on a fraction of sales and graphite prices for TGRs products in Mad haven't slipped all that much (see this tweet https://twitter.com/AndrewMathieso3/status/1702947903965151372)

I got answers to my questions today, one of which was asking if targets given in Q1 are to be met and the answer to that was yes the ramp up and q2 and q3 targets are on track to be met. Well there's two weeks left of Q2 so i'm hoping that's a little nod to what's to come. That would mean sales would almost certainly exceed 1200T per month in Q3 and Q4, probably slightly closer to 2000T than 1500T.

I think it's as simple as many thinking they've seen this before (January) and aren't going to get burnt this time.

But this isn't the same and I think they *will* get burnt this time selling today.

What's great here is that whilst we wait to see if gold is about to break higher and reach new all time highs Shanta continues to produce $15m+ EBITDA every three months... more than a 10th of its valuation. every. quarter.

It will eventually be realised in the share price.

My .5p suggestion is extreme and unlikely but just highlighting how much profit Shanta is looking at this year.

.2p would be modest but still eye catching.

Usually I'd say keep the dividend modest and use the capital for expansion and exploration but with it increasing so fast (with no end to the cash generation in sight) then it makes sense to me to do something that might just wake up the market.

Special dividend of 0.5p or something like that would be headline grabbing.

Seeing as the usual 0.1p dividend costs the company £1m and we're looking at finishing the year with ~$50m/£40m cash you'd think they could up the dividend to .15p or .2p without even noticing the difference.

'Avacta were pretty quick to refute placing rumours last time around. Let’s see what happens.;

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His tweet got two likes, two, and virtually no traction. I doubt avacta's mgmt even know about his tweet and article today.

… and that’s before we even talk Vale. Whilst it’s not possible to put a value on the alliance at this point it definitely boosts Serabi’s reputation and credibility to be in partnership with such a company and it has the potential to bring in significant cash in the months and years ahead.

No offence but that's as stupid a post as it gets:

(i) they aren't late with releasing the interims, it's this week

(ii) we already know the numbers through q1 and q2, this just fills in more of the detail with some additional insight into post period activity.

How many £108m mcap companies are going to post more than £50m ($65m) EBITDA this year? And that have a low capex ($5-$10m) expansion in the works to increase production another 30-35%? And that have minimal debt on top having gone from net debt of $11.1m at the start of the year to an expected net cash position of ~$15m by the end of this year? And have another $20m or so in tax owed that will be realised through further tax offsetting?

It's only a few of you that are obsessing over TSG, the majority us recognise that funding the downstream right now would be a poor decision when we're about to see positive cash generation from Madagascar and have the assets in place to reach 150000T.

Again re becoming a major player via internal cashflow - it's been made clear what the plan/strategy is. Hit the upcoming quarterly targets to prove out the business model, then leverage that 30k production for the next stage of expansion, ideally through a debt package but with equity an option if the share price has recovered substantially.

You've got to remember that broker targets are 21p and 30p here based on the assumption that gold is 'toppy', those targets are based on gold averaging ~$1840 this year ($1920 YTD) and $1700-$1800 over the coming two years... you can see what will happen if gold defies those calling it for going lower and instead breaks new all time highs.

... SRB sat at 115p. Let's compare SRB then to SRB today.

Gold price - $1900 then, $1920 today. The big difference being gold was on a tear then and unlikely to remain so elevated whereas now indicators point to a sustained break above $2000/oz in the months ahead, and has averaged $1920 through 2023.

AISC - $1275, ~$1550 today. This one is obviously a big increase but expected given inflationary pressures since 2020.

Cash - $11m then, today vs $13.3m (-$1m hold under Vale Exploration Alliance). Debt lower also but a placing in 2021 at 75p (raising $17.5m) wiped out the debt.

Production - 32000 ounces then - ~34000 ounces today. Barely any change.

Now with Coringa licences looking so close it's reasonable to say that at a business level Serabi is right back to where it was 3 years ago and has the near term potential to kick on. Costs have gone up sure but significant funds were raised back in 2021 whilst the SP was so strong and the gold price is averaging significantly more than in 2020 bringing margins back to the same level.

The thing that is different is share price - back then 115p (and stayed above 100p for ~8 weeks over the autumn period) to today's paltry 22p. With a fair tailwind, being new ATH gold prices and Coringa greenlit I don't see why we won't see Serabi back at 100p+ within six months or so...

Or IM sale / developments that put the rumours to bed over its value.

They've repeatedly stated that this doesn't replace IMC meetings so what's the big deal? It's something extra for those able and willing to go and meet the management and ask them questions face to face.

We're going to get a general update on questions from these meetings so hopefully that answers many of your own personal questions and then I'm sure we'll get an Investor Meet after the Q2 results next month.

There's a ton of VAT rebate Shanta argues is owed to them, which they appear to be slowly receiving through a combination of cash and tax offsetting. This is from the most recent update:

'The Company's Tanzanian VAT receivable reduced from US$32.0 m in Q1 to US$31.0 m in Q2. Approximately US$23.0 m of the total VAT receivable relates to the legacy period from 2017-2020 which is currently undergoing formal proceedings with the Tanzania Revenue Appeals Board.'

and 'In the Quarter, the company received notification from the Tanzanian Revenue Authority that VAT refunds of US$6.7 m for the period up to March 2023 had been audited with payment to be expected in Q3.'

Of the 12 million shares they will have received in total the vast majority were at a conversion price of 52.6p.

Whilst they do have liquidity issues if they are selling shares they won't sell anymore than they need to keep seeing themselves through whilst the TGR SP is so depressed. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the large sells yesterday were them, almost 500k shares in two lots. That would have raised enough for working capital purposes if they are trying to engineer a placing.

The selling seems to have slowed today, hopefully we're looking at the bottom.

Smkr you’re confusing net debt (debt - cash) with debt. No they won’t be debt free next year but they’ll have a strong enough net cash position to pay off all their debt if they so desired (they won’t, better to leave the long term debt to mature and reinvest the cash/ increase the dividend).

Hope that makes sense to you.

Gone by early next year? $6.7m tax refund to be received in q3 + $10m+ more cash generation… we will highly likely see a swing from net debt to net cash reported next month in the quarterly update.