Member Info for HarChris

Easychair, you're welcome to only look at cash burn but what novacyt have just bought is a business posting around £40m revs and with a net asset value of £33m. Novacyt themselves have a net asset value of £108m as relayed to the market today... what neither company is though is profitable and in this economic environment that's crucial.

This acquisition is to do exactly that, take the two businesses that are operating in the same sector and synergise and streamline them so that they are profitable as a combined entity. The potential here is, for once, significant and exciting but of course the obvious elephant in the room is the management.

Wait for 40p/£28m if you so desire but i'm confident this time around it won't get close.

0.15% dilution does not warrant discussion, it’s irrelevant.

There's another element to focus on here Andii, too.

If even the China Graphite Group mine producing a whopping 159kt in H1 alone is loss-making at these prices (alongside every producer we can name) and yet TGR show in a few weeks that they are actually managing to ramp up during this time with the most modest of resources then it highlights not just that TGR is operating with lower margins than possibly every producer globally (including China) but that the difference in their margins is light and day.

To say we 'expected' it is an understatement...

27th July Half Year trading update:

Financial highlights

· Group revenue for H1 2023 expected to be £3.3m of which £0.5m relates to COVID-19 (H1 2022: £16.5m of which £13.0m relates to COVID-19).

· Revenue for non-COVID-19 portfolio of £2.8m representing 85% of total revenues (H1 2022: £3.5m). As previously signalled, H1 2022 is a high comparator particularly in instrumentation sales linked to COVID sales.

· Non-COVID revenue continues to build with Q2 showing 3% growth over Q1 and 10% growth over Q4 2022.

· Opex in H1 2023 is expected to be in the region of £7.1m, a reduction of c.13% vs H2 2022, reflecting restructuring plans implemented in Q4 2022.

· Cash position at 30 June 2023 was £81.7m (H2 2022: £87.0m) and the Group remains debt free.

_______________________________

We didn't just 'expect' it, it was already known.

Not a holder but isn't it a chance for current holders to increase their position at a deeply discounted price as well as bring institutions on board whilst guaranteeing the cash runway to cash flow break even?

I'd buy if it drops a lot further but not sure it will.

it's rather easy to look back with hindsight but the reality earlier this year was that the v price was high and we were being told by the management that we would be seeing record production at low costs and therefore generating considerable cash. what happened was v fell off a cliff and then we found out that all was not well behind the scenes, almost simultaneously. add to this the aim market being possibly the weakest it's ever been (i'm sure 80%+ of aim businesses are down enormously over the past few years) and you have a wicked ****tail.

if only one of the two had occurred (production guidance met or v held up a little stronger) then we wouldn't be close to the situation we're in now, the spr deal wouldn't have been necessary and we'd have been ploughing on with the renegotiated orion deal. if both had occurred (production guidance met and v stayed above $42/kgv or even rallied due to vrfb uptake) we'd have ended up with an even better deal with orion and looking at aiming for double figure share price again.

so to just take one example after the fact to conclude that averaging down is a terrible idea is a bit lazy.

I think I made a good call here, especially in regards to watching and waiting on Migi.

Looks like I’m about to bite the bullet on a small Mara purchase , bigger if it goes into the mid-high sevens but sentiment is sure all over the place right now… feels a bit like January being repeated.

Absolutely that - we are going to see a return to quantitative easing and with it a significant fall in the dollar and new all time highs in gold. It's a matter of when not if.

Wait I've really let you off there coffee, looking at your posts it's clear that you:

(i) Bought in on Orion refinancing news, ~4.3p

(ii) Sold out last week of June, ~ ~2.9p

(iii) Bought in heavily from ~3.2p down into the 2s in late July, so maybe 3p average?

Crystallising a 33% less before buying back in and immediately being back at another 45% loss? Genius!

I bet you've bought and sold at a loss tons of times over the past few three years or so too.

The phrase 'the pot calling the kettle black' was coined for people like you.

The good news is that yesterday was highly likely a significant chunk of BAT’s current holding sold (~2.5m) and if so they won’t have much left now until they get the rest of their shares in December.

Considering how large those sells were, with the third biggest volume TGR has ever seen, the fall in share price is modest.

I certainly got my price points wrong and so am sitting on a big loss in this particular investment. I hope that doesn’t mean I’m censored and have to accept obvious nonsense like we got from Trevor earlier?

AIM is a tricky market to navigate, as you well know seeing as even you are already seeing a near 50% paper loss despite holding for such little time.

I will talk down occasionally when someone says something stupid in a failed attempt at a ‘gotcha’. There is absolutely nothing incorrect about saying the US V price remains relatively high.

You might not understand what the word relative means so I'll start with the dictionary definition:

'considered in relation or in proportion to something else.'

Now let's see if that stacks up when comparing the US price and the European price...

US price ~$35.5/kgV, Europe price ~$29.25/kgV. I make that more than 20% higher.

It was also the words used by Craig in the dial in too. US price is 'firm' whilst Europe/China has continued to 'soften'.

Let's get away from that provocative header. My main positives from yesterdays update were:

- Record monthly production in August of 390mtV which points to the potential for next year.

- US V prices still remain relatively high considering collapse in Europe, sales to US increased to 49%.

- Cash already received from SPR which means they've already committed giving even greater likelihood that the rest of the deal (and therefore Orion alongside) will go through.

-Craig Coltman

The new CEO now has breathing space to get to grips with the operational challenges and for V to begin its inevitable recovery back to a sustainable level (and hopefully beyond). Will take time but I'm sure i'm not the only one that now has a little bit more confidence that targets set going forward will actually be achieved.

I do agree, that was an excellent from Faramog last night.

'Interest rates (& inflation) are going MUCH higher.'

No they aren't, the US economy cannot handle much more and the interest on the national debt is getting out of hand.

There seems to be a growing consensus that bond yields and the DXY are about to peak and when they do we should be seeing the bottom in stocks, gold and other commodities/precious metals.

Might not happen til the the first interest rate cut like you say but it’s coming…

Yeah exactly. Costs need to come down so that BMN can weather any drop in V prices like we’re seeing now and make hay when they reach $45/kgV and beyond. Instead what we’ve been seeing is break even at the best times and haemorrhaging cash during a commodity downturn.

I certainly sounds like Craig will get a grip on the operations and if the exchange rate continues to play to our favour then close to $30/kgV seems a distinct possibility.

One thing that is uber positive is the ability to increase sales to the US even further - we know US V remains considerably elevated vis a vis Europe and the ROW and in H1 the percentage of sales increased to 49%.

Yes WBAFC I’m holding in the full knowledge that if the court case goes the way of the DHSC, certainly at the extreme end, I could lose the entirety of my investment.

I’m happy with the odds, pay my money and take my chances.

Same with me CS - all I know for sure is that I'm nowhere close to break even and if I worked it out and waited for that price I could be waiting forever.

It's best to realign yourself with the present and set realistic exit prices from there. For me, like you, I'm seeing it through to the DHSC outcome and if by then there's a significant step change in governance and operational performance I'm sure I'll hold out, if not i'll be happy with a decent improvement from today's price.