Member Info for HarChris

Schroders bought in heavily around the first placing in late 2021 at what must have been around a 170p average and then after the placing at 175p they were sat on 25% ownership. Since then they have I think taken part in the placing at 100p and the placing at 32p, with dilution taking their overall holding down to 22.2% and then down to 21.97% recently.

They will have reduced their average from 170ish sure but from my rough estimates I would think their average is still well above 100p.

For now the heads or tails can only refer to 'will TGR manage to ramp up to 2000T a month production before Q4 is finished in December without the need for additional funding'? If the answer is yes then we are looking at a 25000T producer that is cash flow positive at a time when all other ex China producers have had to halt production (albeit there's only a couple) and we will see a major rerate from this lowly level. If the answer is no then the share price will take a further knock.

Beyond that all we need is for graphite demand to accelerate (as all analysts expect) and for graphite prices to rebound and it'll be rather hard for TGR to fail to make something of the opportunity presented to them.

Of course it's an error, there isn't a company in the world that choose to reveal a CEO change that way!

As for LR becoming CEO it certainly won't happen in the near future. The ncyt BOD may be amateurs in many departments but they aren't that useless to make a catastrophic decision like that... even if he wasn't distrusted you don't take over a company and then instal that company's boss as the group CEO.

I certainly hear you sahid but I also take comfort in that institutional support IES continues to see. Take Schroders, they built the majority of their holding at the back end of 2020, with the share price well above 150p as well as taking a large amount in the placing at 175p. Despite the share price collapse since they have maintained their holding at 22% and evidently have confidence in this coming good in the coming years.

Been a long time coming but it does finally feel like the inflection point is just around the corner.

Of course you’d say spot on, you’re one of the culprits! ;)

Nah CS all I’m really saying is can we make our points a couple of times a day rather than ten so that all views can be aired somewhat equally and no opinion drowns out everything else.

That’s the last from me on this as I’m now offending in the same way (repeating my point!) - character assassinate away!

Wilson that’s the sort of balance and perspective I agree with but my comments aren’t even about that, it’s about respect for others. A few weeks ago I sold out of a different company, in part because I didn’t trust the management. I shared my thoughts on that bb and then left, probably never to comment again. If instead I hung around like a bad smell repeating and repeating and reinforcing my negativity it would be rather frustrating and annoying for all those left invested, don’t you think?

The point I’m making CS is that we have numerous people on here who hate him and therefore aren’t invested, which is obviously sensible, but then they are taking over the bb reinforcing that message.

It’s a bit annoying that’s all but nout that can be done and this bb has no influence on price anyway.

I completely get your feelings but as LR is going to be at the heart of future developments at novacyt perhaps it best to look elsewhere for where to put your money? This bb is turning into the Lyn Rees Disappreciation Society - could you leave some space for us investors to discuss our investment please!

The sector, the size of the opportunity, the first mover advantage... but the cherry on the cake is Larry and Matt - couldn't ask for two more impressive people to be spearheading a business like this.

Kaeren I agree with your 01:41 for one very simple reason, whilst LR may be an absolute wan*** (I said *may*) we have been crying out for some genuine competence and experience for a long time. Whilst novacyt shareholders have been left in the dark like mushrooms as they sit on piles of cash Yourgene shareholders had the opposite problem, watching progress being made but with a debt that was ballooning relative to their cash position and ability to handle it.

To me it seems what we get from this deal is a business close to really taking off with incredible potential to build considerable market share in the diagnostics space once the two businesses are combined - and what yourgene gets is, well, to continue operating rather than going to the wall.

I fully understand YG holders disdain too but the truth is most AIM companies fail, the vast majority, so LR driving them close to that point/failing to see a return for his shareholders is not unique, not unusual.It seems they got close to that inflection point but sadly failed to do it before cash ran dry and all other realistic funding options were exhausted. They never did manage to see a windfall during covid like ncyt did that would surely have transformed everything and in business, as in life, sometimes luck is the most important factor in success.

Whatever one's view of this man there is no doubt in my mind that this is a major step in the right direction for novacyt.

Amazingly positive presentation, so much going on in one of the buzziest and rapidly growing sectors globally.

If you do only one thing listen from 12:30 on what Jonathon has to say about strategic investors... it's plainly obvious we're going to see a big announcement on this front soon.

I just watched the presentation and it left me feeling much better. I'm sure those that don't trust Lyn Rees have their reasons but he certainly seems competent and if he's learnt from his mistakes then we could see a hell of a lot of added value from this acquisition.

Going to take a good bit longer but now we have the possibility of a turnaround on the financial side just as we get ever closer to the court case date - perfect storm in the new year?

Well their full year accounts end in March so the deadline for them filing is six months later, end of September - therefore they still have until tomorrow…

Whether or not they have to file now that they’ve been bought out I’m not sure.

The simple answer to why they didn’t raise at 10p is the obvious one, because they couldn’t pull it off in time at that price. What do you think would have happened if they had released these results without the funding alongside? I can assure you once the cash burn was seen and the realisation of how short the cash runway was the share price would have collapsed. Then what? Do you think they’re getting a placing away at 8p after that, 33%higher than the last? Possibly but I’m not convinced. I think things might have got a bit messy.

This was forced.

I guess the main reason is the market backdrop which has deteriorated so drastically... do they continue into 2024 and risk signposting the next cash raise leading to a share price implosion or bite the bullet long before there's even a whisper and guarantee funding through to late 2024/early 2025?

I've seen the former happen numerous times recently and it leads to the worst of all outcomes.

Was a mistake but you can't edit on here!

I will go by your words though to say that they've bought a company that is arguably worth more than novacyt's current mcap and that should be profitable when funded properly, something that novacyt is capable of doing.

In H1 BAT saw a group loss of 2.2mAUD = £1.15m. Cash at 30th June was 1.7mAUD so to get through to the end of the year we're only talking ~0.5mAUD = £260k = 1.44m shares at an average price of 18p (they were likely selling in the 20s before the recent 15p sells).

What we've probably seen is more than 1.44m shares sold, perhaps double that. If so they should now have runway well into Q1 2024 which gives them time to either (i) release positive news, boosting their own share price providing the opportunity for a placing of their own or (ii) the TGR share price to rally so BAT need to sell far less shares for the same amount of funds in the future.

Yourgene's cash burn is miniscule compared to Novacyt's £81.7m cash position. Obviously after this acquisition it will be more like £60m but there's still many years of cash runway left so no I wouldn't say they need to see a turnaround immediately.

These are two totally different arguments. Complaining about past dilution is valid and reasonable, claiming it's still continuing today is nonsense. Companies always issue a few shares here and there for different reasons, be it bonuses, options etc and that's all this particular issue of equity is.

Too much dilution in the past sure but it's not on going.

'Well you can see why they waited for all votes to be cast for AGM before releasing those figures .'

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They were already known Saintsmith, look back at the July trading update.