Member Info for HarChris

I’ll maybe pop on the discord and share some stuff I’m looking at at some point soon. I would add though that hype *does* matter, whilst the gold miners are far, far cheaper at a fundamental level and have no chance of bankruptcy they do have geographic risks (most UK listed gold miners have production bases in Africa or s.america ) and the simple fact is Bitcoin miners will (highly likely) rally harder if Bitcoin goes on a tear.

I’m just choosing to go the lower risk option at the mo out of the two sectors as I think gold miners might actually get a sentiment break if we see the expected ATHs soon - might well be completely wrong though!

These profits I talk of CLSK are recent enough that they’ve paid down/ almost wiped out debt so far this year and for the next twelve months they’ll fund growth (as who wouldn’t scale up production with those margins?!) but yeah after that if these share prices don’t react then bigger dividends and buybacks will be on the table.

I guess I’m also pointing out that this is the time to buy gold miners as gold makes its move to ATHs and gold miners lag significantly ;) - a sector for you guys to look into anyway.

I don't buy that for a second, not after the most recent rns. And even without the license we've just seen $6.6m EBITDA posted for 6 months and almost $5m net profit.

''Agreement with Indigenous Communities for Coringa development

Serabi Gold plc (AIM:SRB, TSX:SBI), the Brazilian-focused gold mining and development company, announces that it has signed an agreement with the representatives of the indigenous communities (together “the Parties”) confirming their support for the long-term development of the Coringa project and setting out the steps to be followed to complete the consultation process (“the Baú TI Agreement”).

The agreement has been signed with Kabu Institute (“Kabu”) and the Mantino Indigenous Association (“Mantino”) who together represent all of the communities of the Baú Indigenous Territory (“Baú TI”) and is the culmination of an extended period of engagement with the indigenous communities to fully understand and provide assurances regarding their expectations about the project. The discussions have been transparent and conducted with the knowledge of the relevant authorities in Brazil including the offices of the public prosecutor and represent a significant step in cancelling restrictions regarding the issue of new licences. The agreement has been presented and received approval of the Public Prosecutor’s Office and the Federal Court.''

They are doing all the right things... Been a long time coming but really does seem close now.

Eventually something will have to be done if the share price doesn't budge but I'm sure it will, especially as POG begins to rev up into 4th and 5th gear. Let's see where we are after Q3 results, I reckon most of you will be surprised.

I know it's just me talking to myself at this point but this is sure going to get fun if gold breaks $2000/oz - by my calculations that will put Serabi on a run rate of ~$20m EBITDA against today's market cap of $24m and that's before the Coringa licence, a doubling of production (which can be funded with cash flows) and therefore a significant rise in margins.

It's not hyperbole to say we could be looking at $60+ EBITDA in the years ahead, 2 and a half times today's mcap.

Still worth bearing in mind that there's a lot of hype surrounding bitcoin, just compare to gold miners for example.

One of the one's i'm invested in today announced they should now post $75m EBITDA and $50m per tax profit and $35m net income, has minimal debt and this is based on gold staying where it is, all indicators are pointing to all time highs soon. What's the mcap? $130m only.

Every single gold miner is in profit as $1930/oz gold, some break even as low as $1000/oz and most around $1400/oz and still they are on lower multiples that some bitcoin miners! Interesting to see the comparison.

Another company I'm invested in has $81m net assets, only a few million debt, is expecting to post $12m net profit this year and is valued at less than half Argo still!

Especially as WK will require significant funding… imagine being able to build out another 100k ounces almost entirely with cash flow alone!

It's impossible to imagine V holding at such lows for long, there's just no way any producers outside of China will be able to continuing operating. Just look at this Q1 update from Largo, the largest primary producer in the world: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230510005606/en/Largo-Reports-First-Quarter-2023-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Update-to-2023-Operational-and-Sales-Outlook

They sold more than they produced at an average sales price of $10.39/lb V205 and *still* made a slight loss. The price right now? $6.40/lb, a 39% drop. At these prices and operating at full capacity they will be making ~$25m loss per quarter... unsustainable.

I agree with your thoughts GL, good summary.

It's been a tough few years for holders here, at times wondering if the board and management had any desire whatsoever to make something of the opportunity presented to them but it does feel like finally a corner has been turned with the acquisition of Yourgene and I'm looking forward to a webinar for once on the 28th.

If you listened to the Investor Meeting with Eric earlier you will know that we are set for a *very* strong set of results next month for q3. We may just see gold break $2000/oz alongside which is going to once and for all blow the bl***** doors off here.

I know it seems like the share price never reacts to the progress but I think we’re about to see the long awaited move happen all at once. GL to those holding.

Actually don't bother answering, just realised you're the same poster who thought 'week commencing 18th September' meant '18th September' and hypothesised that the company were holding back results because they were poor. Comprehension not your strong point.

Could you point me in the direction of a couple of other companies with EBITDA below 2 that have very modest debt because I can't find them.

And with Singida only contributing from late March we're now looking at EBITDA greater than $70m this year - how's that for a company valued at $135m?

So within about 3 and a half months we have Q3 update, three drilling results, Q4 update and (very likely) a new CEO announced.

Let's be having that alongside new gold all time highs!

Interesting to see the $10m working capital facility with Stanbic fully repaid last month - looks like they are focused on bringing debt down towards $0 so they have the cleanest of balance sheets.

We were informed in the Q2 results recently that net debt was $8.7m, this just confirms it / actually adjusts it down ever so slightly to $8.6m. This does NOT account for all the cash generated from 1st July to today, which is significant.

Net debt will almost certainly be wiped out when we get the Q3 results next month.

No surprises, we had all this in the Q2 results. Thought we might get a special divi but it's no big deal.

WIll tune into the call though for any extra snippets.

I tried to get as much out of them as I could(Shishir, Puruvi) and they confirmed that they were 'on track for achieving the new q2 and q3 targets', that to me most importantly means this from the Q1 update:

'The Company remains focussed on reaching monthly production and sales minimum target of 2,000 tons and expects to achieve this important milestone in Q3 FY24'

They did point out that the prepayments have had the desired effect (most notably addressing the working capital and input issues) so it's possible that the real step up in production is only happening now (prepayments were received 10th August so midway through Q1).

Either way they seem extremely confident of managing this ramp up without additional funding.

Is that question to me Gallmat?

I love that this is making a move BEFORE gold has even begun to rally - if POG moves as I and many others expect it to in the coming weeks and months then we’re in for some real FOMO soon at such a low mcap starting point.