Member Info for HarChris

Yeah was a strange comment… however Shanta’s margins in Q2 were phenomenal, POG holding here or going higher and the numbers speak for themselves

With Singida expansion (cost $5m-$10m) Liberum forecast Shanta EBITDA to be $76m with POG of at $1680/oz! If you think gold is going to perform better than that over the coming year or so and SHG can keep delivering operationally then the inevitable squeeze will happen and you'll see multibags from here.

And the downside risk is falling by the day as cash continues to pile up on the balance sheet.

There are many reasons but top of that list is the 'expected gold price' which for a while now has been south of here, i.e forecasters expect dollar strength to drive POG down but it hasn't and at some point the market will wake up to the fact and base things on reality. This is true for gold miners across the board but SHG is (one of) the most undervalued due to the Odey forced selling and lack of buyers to come and in and take those shares.

Although irrational you can find sentiment lagging with gold 'treading water' even at such levels and then suddenly gold breaks ATHs, attention turns to gold and with it gold miners and you see the huge moves you've been waiting for happen all at once.

As for SHG itself sorting out the CEO situation will help, breaking ground on Singida expansion and positive progress made with West Kenya. But more than anything wait for POG to hit all time highs and sentiment to turn on a dime.

Very likely BAT selling the shares they got from the Suni Resources acquisition - they are evidently distressed hence the change in terms allowing them to sell earlier than they were able to otherwise.

If it’s them they won’t have many left, I assumed they were selling a few months ago, this hopefully is the last of it.

Alongside the new CEO, drilling at NL, Singida & WK and interims before Q3 next month I'd like to see two things:

(i) The announcement of an increase in the dividend, it's too small for the cash being generated relative to share price

(ii) An upgrade in broker target from Liberum. Currently it's 21p but the forecast is based on POG of ~$1850 for 2023 (currently running at ~$1920 YTD) and then a fall to $1700 through 2024 - once it's clear gold has bottomed and is going higher we deserve a significant broker upgrade.

For refence Tamesis has the TP of 30p with a gold price of $1830 for 2023 (we're seeing a fair bit higher) and $1800 through 2024 and 2025.

It's laughable that any holder would continue holding whilst attempting to remove the Poddars from running the company, ludicrous in fact.

It's bollo***, too.

I’ve had enough correspondence with Shishir since the Q1 results to make up my mind on whether to hold or not and meeting him face to face wasn’t going to change that, so no I didn’t arrange a meeting.

Personally I don’t reckon many took up the offer of a one-to-one interview as like me most heavily invested probably have enough of a dialogue with Shishir/mgmt as it is… but what matters is that he was willing to meet each and every disgruntled and concerned investor / prospective investor if they so desired.

This wasn’t some privilege extended to HNW individuals which is usually the case, every single one of us including you were able to meet and ask exactly the same questions and receive the same information. And if you weren’t able to make it in person they were extending the offer I believe to video interviews.

Stupid post.

And that time has come... !

'The Mozambican acquisition ended up very expensive in dilution.'

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What, you mean for an acquisition that increased the reserves and resources of TGR by a factor of 12? With a DFS already completed and construction started on a 50000T production plant? With permits to build out to 158000T per annum?... Not to mention the huge vanadium pentoxide resource which will likely find interested partners in the years ahead?

It would be extremely painful diluting now at sub 20p but all the money was raised at 52.6p and 35p, with the latter used for working capital purposes also. In fact Suni Resources takeover led to fairly modest dilution and I think most would agree with that.

It's bounced less than 1% so don't expect fireworks from the miners.

Looks like a buy.

You've just got to hope there aren't tons of others 100% committed to getting out of miners in the next bull or it will be a race for the exit the moment there's any gains had.

CJ, yes this is true right across the mineral space. Lithium prices expected to kick on but instead are at 33% of their 2022 peak. The copper surge hasn't happened, the list goes on and on.

It appears graphite producers rushed ahead of the market and built up supply that demand has not been able to keep up with yet. This should now change as producers, at least all those Ex China, are pausing operations which should give a chance for demand to catch up with supply. TGR as a much lower cost producer than the likes of Syrah and Northern Graphite aren't having to halt operations and so have a chance to slowly ramp up their own operations whilst the demand/supply dynamics in the background begin to move in their favour.

Sentiment is shot now but I still think there's every chance that we're looking at a totally different landscape in as little time as a few months.

What we do know is that TGR made it through Q1 with just $280k cash to begin with. The cash bottleneck would have been immediately mitigated if the £1m+ vat owed to the company had been paid which instead left them scrambling to dig into the stockpile to keep their heads above water.

Sales in Q1 were 2772T giving estimated revenue of $2.5m. At 2000t per month which is now expected in Q4 (based on new 'easily achievable' targets) we'll be looking at ~$5.4m per quarter, with I assume only a modest increase in costs. Add in the rebate of more than £1m and you can see why there shouldn't be any cash flow problems going forward through 2023 and into 2024 (for daily operations and ramp up to 30k).

Of course they might miss targets again but you've got to wonder if Shishir would waste his time meeting investors one by one this week only to then disappoint with the next RNS due in early October, sending all those investors exiting for good.

They had a working capital bottleneck which they addressed and now they will be cash flow positive as they get closer to the 30ktpa. Add in the negotiable debt on the books means TGR are far from running into any serious trouble.

Sentiment has been severely hit though and they can’t afford any more ‘hiccups’ over the coming six months operationally speaking.

What is true is that the path to accelerated growth has hit a stumbling block with options fairly limited at this stage and that’s something the market hates and punishes as we’re seeing now.

Delivery over the coming months will turn things around, to ramp up without raising will prove out the low cost high margin business model especially whilst peers have to pause operations, but deliver on those targets they must.

Don’t forget the market opened in the 30s after suspension (albeit briefly) and again reached the 30s after the prepayment rns - the big slide has been a drip drip drip, not based on any new material news over the past three weeks

However you swing it though Fred has gone against his word unless anyone can confirm that he's also said 'we will dilute only for growth AND tidying up the balance sheet'

I wouldn't trust this type of CEO.

Do you think the big miners are preparing for the chance to take over the weaker ones that simply don't have the funds or balance sheet to compete? Would be one way of adapting to the tougher conditions created by the halving.

You would say that, last week you were insinuating that BMN were about to go bust.