Member Info for HarChris

Couldn't agree more Pdub. Whilst our views and perspectives have diverged somewhat in recent weeks/months it seems we're both able to share our view points respectably without resulting to childish insults. After responding to what was quite clearly a provocative thread title and OP politely to then follow it up with even more abuse and name-calling takes the biscuit.

I've finally filtered but unlike you mine will without doubt be permanent... well until he pops up with a new alias in a few weeks time that is.

No, not at all, not in any of the miners.

My low 8s entry for Mara looks very attainable in the coming days and weeks, as for holding out on MIGI that appears to be the best approach too as it goes lower again today - having said that it doesn't look like it's going to be easy to get a quote for any more than a couple of thousand shares.

Extremely positive share price action with POG falling back a little.

The next move north in gold is going to see fomo return here, especially if it coincides with Q3 results in October. Hopefully not long to wait now til a rerate to a share price that matches the phenomenal progress.

My personal opinion is that Fortune left BMN on the brink which now fully explains the SPR deal and why there was no choice but to give up important assets for immediate, short-term liquidity as well medium term working capital. Six months with nothing but sustaining capex, 300mtV more sold than produced and reasonably healthy average sales price of $37.4/kgV should have seen cash generation, not a considerable loss.

So far Craig appears a breath of fresh of air and I see both the SPR deal (now given what we know) and the record performance in August as highly promising and auspicious. He has a tough job on his hands especially against such a tough V backdrop currently though.

A baptism of fire to say the least.

You’d think some of these yanks would set their alarm an hour earlier so they could get up and buy their avacta shares before the rest of the herd.

For the warrant holders to convert at 50p we’ll probably need to see the SP a fair bit higher than that - still plenty of time for that to happen though.

"Given the strong sales and revenue performance during FY24 to date, we expect to exceed the production and sales revenue achieved in the full year FY23 (FY23 £2.89m) before the end of August"

Now add these two key points:

(i) FY2024 started in April, not January.

(ii) Mid August post prepayments is when the big step change in production is expected so realistically we're looking at more than a trebling of revenue at a minimum (£10m) and cash generative midway through the year.

I've been there many times with that wretched symbol cutting off my post!

As for MIGI my decision is to wait for them to show their hand re funding. Even though revenue is increasing there's no way the improvement is enough to go from a $17.6m loss in Q2 to not needing cash before the year is out from a $5m start and unless BTC increases $10K or so that'll come first before any potential rerate of the share price.

Definitely one to do a further deep dive on though.

CS at what price following a successful court case win would you be looking to exit then? I'm not convinced that alone will rerate the share price but it would in combination with successfully showcasing what the synergies with Yourgene means for the finances and growth trajectory going forward.

Operational improvements will trump a cash injection at this stage although obviously having the weight of the court case lifted from our shoulders will cause a reaction of sorts.

That is a very going point re Cellcube. There is the very real possibility that their share is worth more than today’s mcap soon.

So today MSTR have announced the purchase of 5445 BTC for $147.3m ($27k average) taking their total to 158245 BTC.

This followed an equity raise in early August for up to $750m in shares, so i'm assuming a portion of that stock was sold to fund this recent buying spree. If shares were issued early August we're talking $370+ conversion so very good value for anyone buying today. I did see this in the SEC filing though:

'Up to 13,835,417 shares, assuming sales of $750,000,000 shares of our class A common stock in this offering at a price of $437.88 per share, which was the last reported sale price of our class A common stock on The Nasdaq Global Select Market on July 31, 2023. The actual number of shares issued will vary depending on the sales price under this offering.'

That's a low of $54 a share and so I'd be wary of doubling down if the share price were to go a lot lower as the dilution could get quite painful. In terms of bitcoin this is a very positive move though... the more dilution MSTR endures (adding bitcoin and lowering debt) the lower the risk of getting themselves into trouble and becoming a distressed seller, a signal that would be devastating for bitcoin. So overall good short-medium term news I'd say.

For what you claim to stack up it would mean you silently viewed this forum for years without an account only to finally bite the bullet 11 days ago… and after signing up you immediately went from a silent observer to posting nearly 70 times.

Sure, very believable.

If you want to add weight to any digs in future do it via one of your other accounts.

That's total bollo***. I caveated every post and made no such claims, just that if V stays where it was (~$41/kgV) and BMN hit production targets (which we were told were conservative) then they'd be sitting on $35m+ cash by maturity date and (theoretically) could pay off Orion in cash. Since V has plummeted and production targets have been downgraded.

Of course you wouldn't know this because you weren't around in March when I was highlighting the positive outook at the time, wait you weren't even around a fortnight ago...

I just took a little look at Mawson (MIGI) for the first time to see if that low mcap is justified... what i found either highlights how overpriced Argo still is or how undervalued MIGI is, or somewhere in between.

Argo mcap $52m, Migi mcap $11m

Migi's revenue for H1 was $18.4m vs Argo's $24m but one is going in the right direction and the other has been flatlining for an extended period. Revenue in August for example was $3.88m vs Argo's $2.93m with power credits unlikely to take the total above Migi's revenue figure.

Obviously it's the debt / net debt position that's in focus as it's a sector that's going to see many going by the wayside in the next 6 to 12 months. It appears Migi have reduced their debt to $24m which compares favourably to Argo's $72m. As recently as May they pulled off a $5m placing (50% of today's mcap) at $2.40 a share, with tons of warrants at $3.23 a share. Argo only pulled off a smidgen more than that in July.

Now the big issue is obviously liquidity. Loss in Q2 alone was $17.6m... cash as of June 30th was $5m. Obviously the bottom line is improving as monthly revenue picks up and debt is reduced which is a big plus. Cantor downgraded the price target to $1 from their previous $12 which sparked the last sell off (down to as low as $0.45). But if you look at the balance sheets as of June 30th Mawson has $55m net assets whereas Argo now has net liabilities (possibly back to neutral following the cash raise in July).

Only spent half an hour so any conclusions I come to will be fairly hollow but as a snapshot I'd argue that Mawson has a higher chance of surviving the next 12 months than Argo and if it were to reach a bull run prior to any radical financing steps needing to be taken it would see multiples of its current mcap.... At a fifth of the price of Argo it looks a punt worth taking at this price.

Anyone else got anything to add?

If you think it’s down 90% since Craig took over then you must think the share price was 17p in June. That or you don’t understand percentages.

And if there’s significant progress towards an out of court settlement then we’ve got to assume that means an extended closed period - how do you think it would look if the directors all piled in next week only for a settlement in our favour the following week that sees the SP double?

Yes, without doubt in a closed period currently.

Nah too much progress and growth is being seen to be forced into a deeply discounted placing again + the cash burn is exaggerated due to so much of the costs being sunk first before the revenue is realised.

Cash will probably last through to early 2024 at which point they'll be close to cash break even and be in a position to bring a partner on board.

That view is a bit shallow and simply assumes it's one or the other, either a placing or dumping all their holding but that's not the case.

In H1 BAT saw a group loss of 2.2mAUD = £1.15m. Cash at 30th June was 1.7mAUD so we can assume that they will need further liquidity during H2. But having received 12 million shares just a few months ago for just under £6m (10m shares 52.6p, 2m 26.7p) the last thing they will want to do is sell at such a loss just as the company are close to a key inflection point (cash flow positive either in Q2 or Q3).

So yes I'm guessing they'll be selling a portion of their shares and that's possibly what they've been doing over the past few weeks but are we likely to see any more sold than is necessary for day to day working capital? I don't think so.