Member Info for HarChris

More likely just school holidays and lots of free time on their hands.

I don’t disagree stnz and will be looking to buy Mara next week in the low 8s with the knowledge that it might take a long while to see a healthy return (but that it’s highly likely in time).

Diluting shareholders by nearly 20%, issuing 31 million shares when it was announced just a few weeks ago it would be 26 million, wiping out debt that isn’t due for three years just as you seem to be finally hitting full stride and with two years post halving for BTC to have rallied making your large HODL multiply in value and doing it all when you’ve said numerous times that you will only dilute for growth?

You might be sold on it but it’s not surprising that the market isn’t.

By the end of the year the net cash figure will be at a level only seen in 2020 following the rally in POG and a large placing and with it a share price that peaked at 20.5p. Operationally speaking Shanta has never been stronger, looking to post $190m revenue this year compared with $147m in 2020 with a net profit that is going to dwarf the $17m seen that year.

In virtually every department Shanta is a healthier business than in 2020 and yet the share price remains at ~50% - there's a doubling to be had here given enough patience and who knows how much more if gold sees the sort of rally many gold bugs are becoming more certain of by the day.

Long term holds don't get easier than this on AIM.

If one was scratching around looking for a negative here it would be lack of growth in the near term but with the market valuation so, so far behind what you would expect it to be for a company about to post $75m EBITDA and right now turning net cash positive it's not a very valid argument.

And expected growth is significant when pushing out timelines that little bit further.

It was touched upon in the webinar with drilling going on at the moment but to be honest it doesn't sound like they are in a hurry, especially as they've previously said they want to see a full year of stable production at Singida first - probably be announced after the Singida drill results in Q4 so won't be adding extra ounces til at least mid 2024...

Absolutely. Eric confirmed we'll be seeing $75m EBITDA posted this year, pretty staggering for a $135m mcap business.

Then there's a $6.5m capex expansion at Singida which doubles production there (increases group production by 30-35 percent) which will easily be paid through cash flows.

So should be looking at close to ~$100m EBITDA business (POG being equal) before any developments in West Kenya, arguably the most exciting project of them all.

As for Argo has anyone ever seen a slow death quite like this? As hash rate breaks all time highs and BTC continues to limp on well below $30K the runway for Argo gets shorter and shorter.

Still think it'll be a few months before they are forced to show their hand again but bitcoin doesn't seem to be coming to their rescue sadly.

At this valuation what's the biggest risk to the investment? Without doubt the price of gold as Serabi's AISC is much higher than peers with a group breakeven level around $1720 by my calculations. So whilst gold continues to splash around in this trading range SRB continues to see very healthy cash generation. What happens if the long awaited push above $2000/oz occurs in the next three to six months? 'profit' increases by ~50% at $2020, at $2120 it doubles and takes P/E towards 1.

Now look at how much of the company is in institutional hands:

Fratelli Investments Limited 25.5%

Greenstone Resource II LP 25.2%

River & Mercantile Asset Management LLP 4.8%

Premier Miton Group PLC 5.6%

With the profit being generated just at this level without the Coringa licences and excluding any returns from Vale + the 60% of shares in strong hands is it any surprise we aren't seeing any pullback in share price after the most recent 25% rise?

We’ve been over the good and bad of this numerous times but I just found it interesting that the conversion price quietly reduced from $15.9 a share to $13.3 - I was thinking I might just be able to slip in at 50% of the conversion price in the coming weeks which really would be a great price from a risk/reward perspective no matter what Bitcoin does next but the lower price and extra shares is a tad less attractive.

So who's seen this then? https://ir.mara.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1326/marathon-digital-holdings-announces-completion-of-privately

The conversion price was quietly reduced and instead of it being 26m shares for the $417m notes exchanged it's now 31.7m / $13.3 a share.

It did look possible that yesterday’s FOMC decision was going to be the catalyst for gold to go on to new all time highs and with it finally some proper sentiment here but it turned out to be a false flag.

What we do have here though is a company quite obviously undervalued at 10.5p / $1920 gold and absolutely throwing off cash so whilst the big move in Shanta might not happen just yet I do think there’s every reason to look forward to the Q3 update next month with POG breaking to the upside at some point later this year.

I bought a few more shares today and am here for the long haul, can’t think of many shares with a better medium term outlook than Shanta. GLA.

Yeah my long awaited entry back into bitcoin miners may be close - Mara top of the list but might give it one more week to see where this all settles.

No i'm afraid you misunderstood, i'm talking gold miners being unloved sentiment-wise, not POG.

We got a meaningful one last week, do you expect one every Thursday?

‘Which is worse?‘

Well seeing as the dilution was already known about OT selling out would quite obviously be worse.

And it’s that very headstart, (plus TGR’s high margins) funded through equity not debt, that makes TGR at this stage so much less risky than for example the company you just mentioned, Walkabout Resources.

They themselves are funding their plant with debt having failed to raise enough over the past few years when valuations were higher so as (/if) cash flows start to be generated that immediately goes towards servicing that debt rather than boosting any net cash position to reinvest. And if they struggle to generate cash quickly they are stuck with a loss making plant and significant debt to service.

It just had to find a level soon where even doubters on the sidelines find the risk/reward too compelling to keep holding off. Since IPO tgr have raised £27m + a few million CLNs (so virtually debt free) to build out the capacity to 30k and to be able to ramp up to close to that by late 2023/early 2024 as well as acquiring the assets in Mozambique from BAT that come with fully permitted 158000T capacity (with a dfs study and significant capex already sunk in Moz).

All that investment, time and progress (albeit delayed a quarter) in a (very) soon to be cash generating miner in a sector expected to grow exponentially over the next five to ten years values TGR at just £18m…

GG i've only bitten the bullet fairly recently here so I don't have years of baggage that makes me cynical like i'm guessing you do so I fully understand where you're coming from however there's two different investment cases here... one is of course the huge upside (£1.50 on the cards imo) if the licences are approved and production can fairly easily and cost effectively be doubled to ~70k tonnes with far higher margins but even ignoring that we're currently talking about £20m/$25m mcap for a company posting $4.9m NET profit for the first half of the year and with a healthy net cash position already. If gold now goes on to reach all time highs the margins here could easily double with EBITDA at $20m and net profit close to $10m.

The first case is still in play and the second case looks ridiculous cheap WITHOUT the Coringa project contributing + considerable potential upside to be had from Vale too. Obviously the latter needs a robust gold price more than the former though.

Daisan, are you saying gold is in the doldrums? Yes it’s certainly in a range and has been for a while but it’s only a few percentage points off all time highs and the margins here at Shanta are staggering already at this gold price…

What’s actually interesting is that gold is likely to make new all time highs soon which will probably set this share alight but the truth is fundamentally it won’t radically transform this investment, today we were informed that we are now looking at $75m EBITDA for the year, if gold were to rise we’d be looking at say $85m or $90m EBITDA. Either way both would suggest a massive buy at $130m mcap wouldn’t you say?