Member Info for HarChris

Because SPR from their side can't be 100% sure that the Orion deal changes and won't want to be subscribing for shares higher than Orion so it seems reasonable to agree to essentially 6p unless anything changes with Orion.

This doesn't mean it won't be 6p it just means it's not guaranteed (as we obviously already knew).

That's not true at all but we have to accept that the indebtedness in the short-medium term was an issue all the whilst V isn't playing ball and Craig needs the time to sort out the operations.

This reduces the debt / the amount of funding needing in future to develop assets significantly so should please a lot of people that always focused on that.

Well again that's the risk averse element... wait 12 months and you might find bitcoin hasn't reacted to the halving and these miners go a lot lower... at what price could they do this deal if they are one year closer to maturity with BTC struggling and mining 50% from what they are now? A fair bit lower than $15.9.

It doesn't match the (according to you guys) bullish rhetoric of Fred and also sounds like he's very much going against his word hence like you Chaebol even with the conversion happening at $15.9 I see a bit more of a selloff without a better reason given.

But it *is* a low interest debt, it *is* 1% pa + of course the full amount at maturity or possible conversion at $76 a share.

I'm not arguing whether it will turn out to be good or bad, I don't know obviously but it's certainly a risk averse move taking it on at this time. Like you said you're not routinely forecasting $100k BTC but if you were (and it sounds like Fred is in the club) then you'd be confident of instead doing this raise at $30+ a share and being in the same situation at some point over the next 1-3 years with a good few less shares issued. And I'm sure many MARA holders are hoping to see new ATHs again at some point so that conversion wasn't off the table with it being so far away, especially if Mara ends up one of only a handful that dominates the space.

However I always like to get in much lower than what others are willing to pay for the shares so I'm rather tempted to buy and hold long term around $10 now the downside risk has decreased substantially even if the upside is tempered.

It's easy and advantageous to talk bullishly about the commodity in which you mine and have thousands of on your balance sheet but that doesn't mean he's sure enough to refuse an offer like this that wipes out 55% of debt and pretty much guarantees their existence well beyond 2026, even if bitcoin were to s*** the bed.

It's a far bigger issue if a company like Microstrategy suddenly starts hedging their bets to ensure long term operational survival no matter bitcoin's performance over the coming years.

I think it's difficult to interpret it as anything but a very wary Fred Thiel when it comes to the future bitcoin price. Of course you could say 'he's just playing it safe' which will be partially true but getting rid of such low interest debt that far away from maturity suggests to me he is starting to doubt that we are going to see the $100K+ type bitcoin scenarios that were seen by almost all bitcoiners a few years ago as a near certainty by 25/26. If you were fairly certain of that Mara would be sitting on 20K+ BTC @$100k equalling $2B+ ...and a share price in the 40s, 50s, 60s etc within a couple of years.

I’m going to give Viking the benefit of the doubt and say that this was a deftly disguised joke - thanks for the giggle this morning!

I'm quiet mainly because there's little for me to add and partly because I'm had the stuffing knocked out of me over what's occurred over the past 4 or 5 months. I was posting numerous times a day highlighting the investment case because I really truly thought the share price was ridiculous at 4/5p with V sitting above $40/kgV and the high expectations I had for operational progress to be seen. Instead we've seen V fall back quite considerably, production significantly downgraded, 270m shares issues at 2.644p and we're still waiting on the Orion deal to be finalised months on.

This should all come good but now very much relying on Craig to turn the ship around unless V finally goes on a long awaited rally... and unlike Pdub I don't have the ability to remain so positive through thick and thin!

I know but it's an effective raise at $15.9 a share where the cash 'coming in' is immediately used to pay down a huge chunk of the long term debt.

Seems strange and not what I'd expect from a big US company like this. Was some of the bitcoin held restricted due to the loan notes?

Stnz I don't follow this sector like you guys do so it's just very much guessing from me but could it simply be a hefty risk averse measure? The shares have traded between $3 and $20 in 2023 with an average of ~$9 - this protects against the very worst case scenarios over the coming years at a price roughly double the average seen this year.

If I'm reading it correctly (not actually seen a deal like this before) the investors are taking on $417m debt in exchange for 26.2m shares @$15.9 a share. That might sound mad when the trading price is sub $11 but it means they are simply taking on the debt that needs to be repaid in 2026 and I suppose they must be thinking the share price will go well above $15.9 and they'll slowly sell down to cover the 1% interest and principal with profit left at the end of it...

Everyone else agree?

Is that right? Essentially private investors took part in a quasi placing... the investors get 26.2m and pay off the $417m convertible notes in 2026 (plus the 1% interest)?

And so it's a conversion of $15.9 a share...

BeanCounting, what would you have liked it to have said? Directors are guaranteeing 100% that revenues will reach £100m for the full year and if they don't we'll run around Nelson's Column naked until we're nicked by the old bill?

Usually I'd be wary of a reiteration of guidance like this (£25m H1 jumping to £75m H2?!) but when you're expecting £25m from FSS and ~£34m from M55 this year alone then got to assume it's nearly all crystallising in H2 now?

If you're recruiting tons of workers and investing millions into your infrastructure for future work you're quite obviously not going to be turning a profit in the short term are you?

I believe they are planning one for following Q2, when there's more to share after (hopefully) strong results and further progress in other aspects of the business.

So H1 2022 saw:

Revenue £15.4m

Gross profit £3.4m

Operating loss -£14.1m

Net loss -£17.6m

What are those on here estimating for H1 2023?

So you think £2m solves everything and the share price will soar? Good as i'm sure they'll be able to raise that through debt when wanted.

2370t Q1, ~3750t Q2, ~5600t Q3 is the new revised targets and that's plenty growth for me. Assume they then reach close to the 30000tpa/7500tpa and along the way secure a debt package for the next stage of expansion.

Of course if the share price has ballooned then add equity into the mix.

I'll offer you a simple answer to your screaming buy question.

I'd argue the share price action is highly suggestive of the market expecting a placing, of the market doubting TGR's ability to manage this ramp up to 30ktpa without raising additional funds.

Prove the market wrong and this rerates.